Southeast AsiaEnergy Outlook 2024

Executive summary
Southeast Asia is a very dynamic region and a driving force
behind global energy trends, with a projected rise in energy
demand over the coming decades second only to India. It has
accounted for 11% of global energy demand growth since 2010 but
is projected to contribute more than 25% of the growth over the period
to 2035 in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which indicates the
direction of travel for the energy sector based on today’s policies.
This increase in demand is underpinned by strong economic
expansion, population growth, and Southeast Asia’s position as a
global manufacturing and industrial hub. However, this scenario
brings serious concerns for energy security and sustainability: rising
dependence on fossil fuel imports, escalating import costs, and a
projected one-third increase in energy-related CO2 emissions by
2050.

Introduction
The Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024 is the sixth edition of this
special report, making Southeast Asia by far the most regularly
updated regional outlook compiled by the International Energy
Agency (IEA). This reflects the dynamism of the region, as well as
the importance of the IEA’s partnership with the ten countries that
make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) –
Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic
Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam.
The relationship between the Agency and this region is being further
strengthened in October 2024 with the opening in Singapore of an
IEA Regional Cooperation Centre during the Singapore International
Energy Week (alongside the release of this report). This is the first
IEA office outside its Paris headquarters.

Despite some technical and spatial limitations, Southeast Asia is home to accessible solar and
wind energy resources that could be much more widely exploited

Policies to improve the performance of building envelopes and AC efficiency reduce space
cooling demand growth by more than a quarter in the APS by 2050 compared with the STEPS

The use of energy for space cooling is growing faster than for any
other end use in buildings. However, AC ownership rates are highly
unequal between countries in Southeast Asia despite the high
temperatures and humidity experienced across the region. In 2023,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and the Philippines had
AC ownership rates of less than 20% of households compared to
over 90% in Japan. The ACs across Southeast Asia vary greatly in
energy efficiency and keeping them running consumes over
100 TWh of electricity every year. More than 16% of all the electricity
used in buildings in the region is for space cooling, growing to over
35% in 2050 in the STEPS.

Southeast Asia presents a mixed picture for regulations and standards to support efficiency
improvements in buildings, with some improvements since the last edition of this Outlook

Energy security concerns provide powerful reasons to accelerate structural changes in
Southeast Asia’s energy sector, even as some emerging security issues require attention

Our Outlook underscores that Southeast Asia faces a deepening
structural supply deficit for oil and gas that will be met by imported
fuels, despite efforts in many countries in the region to stimulate
domestic investment and output. This comes with significant
implications for import bills and the balance of payments. We
estimate that Southeast Asia’s import bill for oil was around
USD 130 billion in 2023. In the STEPS, this balloons to over
USD 200 billion by mid-century, a significant economic burden. The
net trade balance for gas also shifts from surplus to deficit, adding
another USD 50 billion to the import bill by 2050 in the STEPS. Aside
from the financial implications, this exposes the region to risks of fuel
price volatility on a scale much greater than seen during the recent
global energy crisis, as well as the possibility of physical disruptions
to supply in the event of geopolitical instability in key producing
regions or around major chokepoints for international trade.
Faster progress with Southeast Asia’s structural transformation – in
line with the region’s announced climate goals – would reduce these
vulnerabilities. In the APS, the fossil fuel import bill peaks close to
USD 140 billion around 2030 and falls back under USD 90 billion in
2050; this is about a third of the amount projected in the STEPS.

Countries in Southeast Asia are on the front lines of climate change, facing increasing climate
hazards such as heightened flood risks and more frequent heat waves