London-based consultancy GlobalData says Poland could add between 3 GW and 4 GW of solar annually through to the middle of the next decade.
Image: GlobalData
Poland is on course to reach 59.1 GW of cumulative solar capacity by the end of 2035, according to analysis by UK consulting company GlobalData.
GlobalData said it expects Poland to add 3.7 GW of solar in 2025, taking total capacity to 24.9 GW. The consultancy is forecasting around the same amount of solar will be deployed in 2026, 2027 and 2028, with annual deployments of 3.7 GW and 3.8 GW, before the figure begins to drop slightly. This trend is expected to continue into the early 2030s, with annual deployments slowing to 3.2 GW and 3.1 GW by 2034 and 2035.
This trajectory would see Poland surpass 30 GW of solar in 2026, 40 GW in 2030 and 50 GW in 2033, before being less than 1 GW away from 60 GW threshold by the end of 2035.
During this time period, solar is expected to increase its position as Poland’s leading form of renewables. GlobalData’s figures indicate solar will account for almost 65% of the 91.5 GW of renewables in Poland’s electricity mix in 2035.
GlobalData said Poland’s solar growth will be driven by utility-scale project development, continued expansion of distributed generation and auction-based support mechanisms under the country’s Renewable Energy Sources Act.
Mohammed Ziauddin, a power analyst at GlobalData, added that Poland’s updated National Energy and Climate Plan is providing long-term visibility for renewable deployment, while investments by the state-owned transmission system operator Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A. are critical to integrating higher volumes of variable generation into the power system.
While coal still plays a significant role in Poland’s power system today, GlobalData’s analysis adds that coal-based generation is expected to decline steadily over the next 10 years, falling from around 32.2 GW in 2024 to around 20.5 GW in 2035. 
Ziauddin concluded that Poland’s power sector is moving toward a more diversified generation mix, with solar and wind reshaping the system as coal capacity declines. “This approach strengthens supply security and supports Poland’s long-term decarbonization objectives,” he said.
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