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Near-term overcapacity and export headwinds create critical test for India's long-term goal of global solar leadership
2 minute read
India’s solar module manufacturing capacity is on track to surpass 125 GW by 2025, more than triple the domestic market demand of around 40 GW. According to Wood Mackenzie’s latest report, ‘Perfect Storm in the Indian Solar Supply Chain‘, this growth will lead to a substantial inventory buildup of 29 GW by the third quarter of 2025.  
The capacity surge, driven by India’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, demonstrates rapid success in scaling domestic manufacturing. However, the industry now faces the challenge of aligning this supply with both domestic and global demand, compounded by a sharp downturn in its primary export market. 
Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis shows that new 50% reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States have significantly impacted India’s export momentum, with module exports to the US falling 52% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The decline has prompted several Indian manufacturers to pause US factory plans and refocus on the domestic market. 
 “India’s government’s PLI scheme has been highly effective in spurring factory announcements, but the industry is now seeing warning signs of rapid overcapacity similar to those that preceded China’s recent price collapse,” said Yana Hryshko, Head of Solar Supply Chain Research at Wood Mackenzie. “The challenge has shifted from building capacity to achieving cost-competitiveness and diversifying export markets.” 
India solar module supply and demand balance, 2024-Q3 2025 

Source: Wood Mackenzie 
Note. “Other” category is an estimate of modules that are used as replacements for damaged modules in existing installations, defective modules, and modules that are damaged or destroyed in storage, transport, or during installation. Note 2: Export data is up to July 2025, as the US import data was not released during the government shutdown.  
Cost competitiveness remains key barrier 
According to Wood Mackenzie, significant cost differentials that threaten India’s competitive position. An Indian-assembled module using imported cells costs at least $0.03/W more than a fully imported Chinese module. Under new domestic content requirements, an entirely ‘Made in India’ module would cost more than double Chinese-manufactured modules, making it uncompetitive without substantial government policy support. 
In response, India is deploying robust protective measures, including the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) and a recommended 30% anti-dumping duty on Chinese cells and modules, to support domestic manufacturers during this transition period. 
Diversification and technology investment critical for long-term success 
Despite near-term challenges, Wood Mackenzie identifies India as having the clearest potential to become a large-scale alternative to China’s solar supply chain dominance. With domestic capacity significantly exceeding the protected market of approximately 40 GW, Indian manufacturers must look beyond current protective policies to achieve sustainable growth. 
“India is at a crossroads, but it holds the clearest potential to become the only credible, large-scale alternative to the Chinese solar supply chain,” Hryshko concluded. “The current challenges are not roadblocks, but rather a clear roadmap for the future. Success now depends on shifting focus from just building capacity to achieving cost-competitiveness. This will require a pivot to aggressive R&D, investment in next-generation technology, and a strategic push to open new export markets in Africa, Latin America, and Europe. The foundation is built; this is the next step to securing long-term success.” 
Inspiring natural
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