India will surpass the US as the world’s second-largest solar market in 2026, adding over 50 GW, even as global solar installations decline due to slowing growth in China.
January 15, 2026. By EI News Network
India is projected to become the world’s second-largest solar market in 2026, overtaking the United States, as domestic solar capacity additions continue to rise even while global installations decline, according to BloombergNEF (BNEF).
BNEF estimates that India will add just over 50 GW of solar capacity in 2026, marking a 6 percent increase from the previous year. The growth will be driven largely by utility-scale solar projects, while government subsidies are expected to sustain demand in the residential rooftop segment.
In contrast, solar installations in the United States are forecast to fall 14 percent to 44 GW in 2026. The decline is attributed to policy changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which introduces stricter eligibility requirements for federal tax credits. Projects beginning construction after the end of 2025 will need to comply with foreign entity of concern rules, increasing compliance risks and costs for developers.
China will remain the world’s largest solar market by a wide margin, though annual capacity additions are expected to decline. BNEF forecasts China will add 321 GW of solar capacity in 2026, a 14 percent decrease from the previous year. As a result, global solar installations are expected to decline for the first time, as growth in other markets will not fully offset the slowdown in China.
India’s accelerating deployment puts it on track to meet its 2030 target of 500 GW (AC) of non-fossil fuel capacity. The country added a record 35 GW (AC) of solar capacity in the first 11 months of last year, underscoring the rapid pace of expansion.
Leading solar developers such as Adani Green Energy, NTPC, ReNew, Avaada and Tata Power are expected to benefit from the increasing role of solar power in India’s electricity mix.
Renewable energy auctions have been central to the sector’s growth. India auctioned a record 60 GW (AC) of renewable energy capacity in 2024. However, BNEF noted that around 42 GW (AC) of awarded capacity is still awaiting firm offtake agreements. Prolonged delays could lead to project cancellations, posing a risk to future capacity additions.
India’s policy focus on domestic manufacturing has accelerated investment across the solar supply chain. The Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) mandates the use of domestically produced modules for most projects, effectively limiting overseas suppliers. This has resulted in India’s module manufacturing capacity rising to around 125 GW per year.
However, BNEF warned that manufacturing capacity now exceeds near-term domestic demand, raising concerns over overcapacity and potential consolidation. At the same time, India continues to rely on imports for upstream components such as wafers and cells, highlighting gaps in supply chain localisation

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