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The Indian market is already oversupplied with solar module manufacturing capacity at more than 140 GW as on date, which is expected to increase to over 165 GW by March 2027
Following the US government’s imposition of preliminary countervailing duties (CVD) on Indian solar cells and modules, domestic exporters are navigating a clouded regulatory outlook, further complicated by a pending anti-dumping investigation and volatile tariff negotiations. In response, top government sources and solar PV manufacturers have confirmed they are contemplating legal challenges to the order, noting that the full investigation process has not yet concluded.
“This CVD is against India and a couple of more countries against whom investigations were conducted. Duties are already imposed on China, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam in South-East Asia. In modules, our main competitor is China and a couple of more countries in the region. To some extent, technically it’s on an even footing with India,” said a government source. The government will review the US preliminary CVD ruling and check what subsidies they have taken into account for this action. Also, how much PLI disbursements have happened, said a source.
Santosh Kumar Sarangi, Energy Secretary, Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, said: “Once CVD is imposed you will have to legally fight it. So, our companies will have to challenge that in the appellate forum, but until then this will continue.”
The Indian market is already oversupplied with solar module manufacturing capacity at more than 140 GW as on date, which is expected to increase to over 165 GW by March 2027, said Ankit Jain, Vice-President & Co Group Head of Corporate Ratings at ICRA.
Labanya Prakash Jena, Director at Climate and Sustainability Initiative, said US solar manufacturers had been complaining about Asian solar imports for a long time, so the announcement is not surprising.
“India has excess solar manufacturing capacity of 150 GW, and current capacity utilisation could be around 35 per cent. The hit to US exports was not a major dent to Indian solar manufacturers’ business. The real issue is that we created excess capacity when global solar manufacturing capacity was already in excess. Self-reliance is a good thing, but should not be at the expense of profitability and self-sustainability,” he added.
An official with a leading solar PV module exporter said the India’s the impact is limited, as India exports 3 gigawatts (GW) to the US. “US solar firms have been pushing this issue since early 2025, which offered large domestic manufacturers enough time to strategise in advance. So, the impact is limited on almost all the top producers, many of whom have already expanded their footprint in the US,” he added.
Companies such as Waaree Energies and Vikram Solar see limited or almost no impact on their US market performance as these firms created diversified supply chains for non-Chinese polysilicon.
Abhishek Pareek, Group Head Finance of Waaree Energies, said: “Based on the current order book and internal assessments, the company expects that its current and planned US manufacturing capacity will substantially support its existing US customer commitments.”
Similarly, Gyanesh Chaudhary, CMD of Vikram Solar, said: “Our US order strategy was not structured around sourcing Indian cells. We already operate with a diversified supply chain for that market, including sourcing from geographies with lower tariff exposure. As a result, the direct financial impact on us is limited.”
Tushar Bhaskar, Chief Business Officer at Rubix Data Sciences, pointed out that the US market has been the backbone of India’s solar module exports, accounting for nearly 97 per cent of shipments in FY25 and crossing $1 billion in value. In April-December period of FY26, exports had already reached $954 million.
“At these duty levels, the US market effectively becomes inaccessible. The postponement of the anticipated India-US trade discussions further extends the timeline for clarity, prolonging uncertainty for exporters. The final impact will depend on the outcome of the ongoing investigations and broader trade negotiations,” he added.
Sehul Bhatt, Director at Crisil Intelligence, said: “Overall, we believe the duties will create volatile trade patterns for exports from India.”
Ankit Jain, Vice-President & Co Group Head of Corporate Ratings at ICRA, shared a similar view, adding that the preliminary CVD and growing regulatory uncertainty in the US are likely to dampen export volumes from India, which were around 3 GW in 2025 — potentially exerting pricing pressures on domestic OEMs and can impact the profitability of solar module manufacturers.
Published on February 25, 2026
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