Pakistan’s Renewables First has explored the implications of a lack of official data collection from the country’s distributed solar market segment, which is estimated to have reached over 24 GW of installed capacity by the middle of last year.
Image: Abuzar Xheikh/Unsplash
Pakistan’s energy transition is being mismeasured due to uncounted distributed solar deployments, in turn leading to continued dependency on fossil fuels, according to research from Islamabad-based think tank Renewables First.
The policy paper Electrons In, Hydrocarbons Out: Pakistan’s Quest for Economic and Resource Efficiency found that up to $120 billion in future fuel imports could be avoided over the lifetime of the 48 GW of solar modules Pakistan had imported as of June 2025.
The study’s co-author, Nabiya Imran, told pv magazine that with solar module imports into Pakistan now totaling 51.5 GW, around $180 billion in fossil fuel imports could be avoided. Imran added these solar imports could generate a total 1,730 TWh over their lifetime.
Analysis included in the paper says that fossil fuels remain dominant in Pakistan but impose substantial costs through import dependence, foreign exchange exposure and vulnerability to global price shocks. It adds they are physically inefficient, with around 60% of primary energy lost during conversion, transport and end use. It then argues that distributed solar is more resilient, capable of delivering services for decades with much higher efficiency, particularly when combined electrified end uses.
Data collection in Pakistan currently captures grid-based electricity and utility-scale projects but largely excludes the deployment of distributed solar across households and businesses. 
According to official data, Pakistan had installed 6.8 GW of net-metering capacity as of September last year, while the utility-scale market currently stands around 780 MW. Analysis from Renewables First estimates Pakistan’s total solar capacity reached 32 GW by last June, indicating the country’s distributed market segment stood at over 24 GW by the middle of last year.
Imran confirmed to pv magazine that there is not yet a single verifiable source that provides a comprehensive overview of net-metered, behind the meter and off-grid solar in Pakistan. “This lack of data is of course a challenge for comprehensive planning for a future driven by distributed solar, and we have made a point about the importance of including this in official energy accounting methodologies in our paper as well,” Imran said.
The underreporting of distributed solar in Pakistan means that measured energy consumption in the country has displayed little growth in recent years despite population growth, ongoing urbanization and continued economic expansion. Renewable First says that when accounting for distributed solar generation outside conventional reporting alongside official statistics, Pakistan’s energy consumption begins to align broadly with its economic trajectory.
The think tank adds that its findings highlight that Pakistan’s energy system is already undergoing a “quiet reorientation” driven by consumer economics rather than policy design, with electrification emerging as a defining feature of how energy demand is being met. It adds that the distributed solar market carries the potential to turn Pakistan from a consumer-led electrostate to one that develops domestic clean tech production capabilities.
“The central policy challenge, therefore, is not whether electrification will occur, but how institutions, regulation and utility models will adapt in time to accommodate it,” the paper concludes. “Absent such adjustment, the transition is likely to proceed in an uncoordinated manner, increasing fiscal pressure on utilities and prolonging exposure to volatile fuel imports.”
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