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volume 7, Article number: 325 (2026)
3220
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Photovoltaic energy is expected to lead renewable energy growth, but rising solar energy penetration increases vulnerability to climate-driven intermittency. Here, we examine how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the dominant source of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability, affects photovoltaic power output. Using four decades of reanalysis data, we show that El Niño events reduce surface solar irradiance, causing sustained solar energy deficits in regions with growing solar energy penetration, including California, the southern Atacama Desert, the Chaco Basin, the Middle East, and East China. These impacts are especially pronounced during rare Super El Niño events, of which only three have occurred since the early 1980s. Our analysis indicates that future Super El Niño events could significantly lower photovoltaic generation, increase reliance on fossil fuel backup, and temporarily raise carbon dioxide emissions by tens of millions of tons.
Photovoltaic (PV) power remains the primary driver of the renewable energy transition, accounting for over 75% of new renewable capacity installed in 2023 and nearly 60% of the electricity generated from newly added renewables worldwide1. Global cumulative PV capacity rose from 1.1 TW in 2022 to approximately 1.5 TW in 20232. Rapid PV expansion in key regions (Fig. 1a, b) has pushed PV penetration to around 10% in China and the European Union (EU)1. While PV meets over 8% of global electricity demand, solar power has supplied 100% of electricity for several hours in parts of Australia and Chile1. PV is expected to remain the primary driver of renewable energy growth. Under a low-emission scenario, global PV generation could increase 60-fold by mid-century3.
a Cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity (upper panel) and the cumulative number of PV power plants with a capacity >100 MW (lower panel) in China, the EU, and the USA. China’s PV installations surged in 2023, reaching a record annual growth of ~215 GW—over 60% of new global capacity built that year—and bringing China’s cumulative PV capacity to more than 600 GW. The European Union (EU) also installed a robust ~50 GW in 2023, and the USA installed >30 GW that year. Collectively, these regions (China, the EU, and the USA) accounted for two-thirds of global PV generation in 2023 and are expected to drive PV expansion in the coming decades. b Total utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plants existing in 2024. Each dot represents a power plant with a capacity >20 MW. China, the EU, the USA, Japan, and India exhibit the largest density of utility-scale PV power plants. The key Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W) is also highlighted in the plot. c Annual mean of the photovoltaic potential (PVPOT) computed over the period 1982–2024. Data on PV capacity in plot (a) (upper panel) are sourced from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) renewable capacity statistics2, available at https://www.irena.org/Publications/2024/Mar/Renewable-capacity-statistics-2024. Data on PV power plants in plots (a) (lower panel) and b are sourced from the Global Energy Monitor75, available at https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-solar-power-tracker/. PVPOT data in plot c were calculated using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset77, available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5. Plots were generated using Python’s Matplotlib library, version 3.4.3, available at https://matplotlib.org/3.4.3/contents.html.
As PV systems reach higher penetration levels in more countries, managing PV intermittency becomes increasingly challenging. These fluctuations in PV power output complicate grid balancing by causing mismatches between resource availability and electricity demand, thereby impacting system reliability4,5. While diurnal and seasonal cycles drive intermittency on timescales from hours to months5,6, weather and climate variability influence PV power outputs on timescales from seconds to years7. By altering surface shortwave (SW) irradiance, both weather and climate variability play a crucial role in PV intermittency8,9,10.
Climate change is expected to exacerbate PV intermittency in some regions through extreme weather and enhanced climate variability11,12. Climate-induced deficits in PV power output, often called energy droughts, can last from days to months12,13,14,15,16,17 and may trigger forced oscillations, thermal runaway, frequency and voltage disturbances, and heightened grid instability risks7. While recent research has focused on short-term (hour-to-day) solar resource variability18,19, less attention has been given to the broader impacts of seasonal-to-interannual variability driven by large-scale climate modes.
Enhanced climate variability is not always man-made. Natural climate modes, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can also amplify PV intermittency by modulating regional climate patterns worldwide20. ENSO is a fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric pressure across the equatorial Pacific21. During El Niño, weakened trade winds cause warm water to accumulate in the tropical Pacific. In contrast, La Niña strengthens trade winds, increasing upwelling and bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface21. Through atmospheric teleconnections, ENSO phases influence seasonal-to-interannual solar resource variability in South America22,23, Australia24, Africa25, Texas26, California15,27, and even Europe, where ENSO has been linked to fluctuations in the EU renewable energy stock market28. While low PV penetration has so far limited ENSO-driven disruptions to the energy grid, this situation is poised to change rapidly.
As PV systems reach higher penetration levels, electricity grids are becoming more vulnerable to disruptions from El Niño and La Niña events, especially during rare Super El Niño occurrences, only three of which have been recorded since the early 1980s29. Super El Niño events are typically defined by SST anomalies of at least 2 °C in the Niño 3.4 Region (5°N–5°S, 170°–120°W, Fig. 1b)30,31, as identified by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)32. While Super El Niño events are well known for their severe socioeconomic consequences33,34,35,36, their impact on increasingly PV-dependent energy grids remains largely unexamined. During the last Super El Niño in 2015–2016, global installed PV capacity was nearly ten times lower than today.
Here, we used reanalysis datasets from 1982 to 2024 to reconstruct the PV power response to El Niño and La Niña events (i.e., positive and negative SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, respectively). As a proxy for PV power output, we used the PV potential (PVPOT), defined as the ratio of a PV module’s power output under standard test conditions to its actual output in the field12,37,38,39,40,41. PVPOT primarily depends on surface SW irradiance, which is influenced by aerosols42,43,44 and cloud cover45,46. PVPOT is also affected by air temperature (cooler conditions generally improve PV cell performance47) and surface wind speed (stronger airflow enhances module cooling48). In spite of these other factors, SW irradiance remains the dominant factor, and that explains why annual mean PVPOT (Fig. 1c) closely mirrors annual mean surface SW irradiance (Fig. S1). Our findings show that El Niño (La Niña) negatively (positively) affects surface solar irradiance, leading to persistent PV energy deficits (surpluses) in regions with increasing PV penetration, including parts of China, the USA, and South America. These results underscore the importance of accounting for ENSO-driven variability when developing climate-resilient PV-based grids.
El Niño and La Niña events significantly affect factors that influence PV cell performance, including solar irradiance, air temperature, and surface wind speed. While NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) monitors several equatorial Pacific regions, including Niño 3 (eastern Pacific), Niño 4 (central Pacific), and Niño 1 + 2 (off the Peruvian coast), El Niño and La Niña events are defined based on SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region32. During El Niño events, SST in the tropical central Pacific (specifically, the Niño 3.4 region) can rise by several degrees Celsius, even exceeding 2 °C during Super El Niño events (Fig. S2). This warming is accompanied by an annual average temperature increase of up to 1 °C over the basin’s warmest waters (Fig. 2a, upper panel) and increased cloud cover. During Super El Niño events, annual average surface SW irradiance over the Niño 3.4 region can decrease by more than 15 W m−2 (Fig. 2a, lower panel). During La Niña, the Niño 3.4 region cools, and the basin’s warmest waters shift closer to Indonesia and the western Pacific. This redistribution disrupts atmospheric circulation21, altering climate patterns, including air temperature (Fig. 2b), surface wind speed (Fig. S3), and solar irradiance (Fig. 2c) across many regions.
a Surface air temperature (upper panel) and surface shortwave (SW) irradiance (lower panel) in the Niño 3.4 Region relative to the 1982–2024 mean. The red-shaded columns highlight the Super El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016. Pearson correlation between the 12-month average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region and the corresponding 12-month average of the: b surface air temperature, and c surface irradiance. Data for the period 1982–2024 were analyzed. Stippling in b and c indicates statistical significance. The 12-month averages of surface air temperature, surface irradiance, and SST in plots b and c are calculated from September to August of the following year. Surface irradiance and surface temperature data come from the ERA5 reanalysis77 available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5. SST anomalies in the Niño Regions come from the https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for74. Plots were generated using Python’s Matplotlib library (version 3.4.3), available at https://matplotlib.org/3.4.3/contents.html.
The interannual variability of air temperature, surface SW irradiance, and surface wind speed around the world is influenced by year-to-year changes in SST in the tropical central Pacific. We found a strong correlation between SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 Region and the air temperature across large areas, including tropical South America (particularly across the Amazon Basin), southern Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia (Fig. 2b). This correlation indicates that El Niño events are associated with spikes in air temperature in these regions, while La Niña events generally bring cooler conditions. We also found a significant anticorrelation between SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 Region and the surface SW irradiance across large parts of southern South America (including the southern Atacama Desert and the Chaco Basin), North America, the Middle East, and the Sahara (Fig. 2c). This suggests that La Niña events typically result in sunnier conditions, whereas El Niño events are linked to substantial decreases in surface SW irradiance in these regions. As shown in Fig. S3, anomalies in SST in the Niño 3.4 Region also significantly affect surface wind speed over vast areas of the planet.
The impacts of El Niño and La Niña events are typically strongest during December–January–February (DJF). El Niño usually peaks in December, explaining the strong correlation between DJF SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 Region and DJF air temperatures across much of the globe in both hemispheres. While the effects are particularly pronounced in tropical South America, most regions also experience warmer conditions during the austral summer (DJF) under El Niño events (Fig. S4). In tropical South America, the correlation between SST anomalies and air temperatures remains strong during March–April–May (MAM) but weakens in other seasons (Fig. S4). Similarly, correlations between DJF SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 Region and DJF SW irradiance are significant in most of the Amazon Basin, southern Africa, western Australia, and Southeast Asia (Fig. S5). However, El Niño’s effects on SW irradiance show more regional variation than its effects on air temperature. For instance, during DJF, some areas (e.g., the Amazon Basin) experience sunnier conditions, while others (e.g., the Horn of Africa) become cloudier (Fig. S5d). The complexity of the climate system is further underlined by the fact that correlations can weaken or even reverse during different seasons. For example, in the Horn of Africa, El Niño events can lead to cloudier conditions during DJF (Fig. S5d) and sunnier conditions during boreal summer (June–July–August, JJA) (Fig. S5b).
The atmospheric response to ENSO events is driven by circulation anomalies that ultimately modulate temperature (Fig. 2b), cloudiness and surface solar radiation (Fig. 2c). During El Niño, the Walker circulation weakens, generating an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific that enhances southerly moisture transport into East China and strengthens subsidence-induced cloud formation along its western flank49. The combined effect is a marked increase in low-level cloudiness and a corresponding reduction in surface solar irradiance over East China. El Niño conditions also shift the Pacific jet stream southward and intensify subtropical westerlies, steering more frequent extratropical cyclones toward California21. This increases both deep and low-level cloud cover, especially in boreal winter, reducing the occurrence of clear-sky conditions. A similar mechanism operates along the southeast Pacific margin: weakening of the South Pacific subtropical anticyclone, combined with enhanced zonal flow, leads to increased storm-track activity over southern South America33. These changes produce cloudier and wetter conditions during winter and spring, directly suppressing surface solar radiation. While El Niño also enhances cloudiness and storm activity over the Levant and the Middle East50, convection over the western Pacific weakens substantially, producing anomalous subsidence over eastern Australia51. This downward motion suppresses cloud formation, particularly reducing deep convective clouds associated with the Australian monsoon and subtropical rainfall systems.
The interannual variability of PV potential exhibits the signature of El Niño and La Niña events. In regions that include northern California and southern Brazil, PVPOT values have dropped substantially during El Niño events, particularly during the Super El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016. These drops are most noticeable during the austral summer (DJF), as the largest anomalies associated with El Niño events occur around the end of the year and the beginning of the following year (Fig. 3a). In northern California, DJF PVPOT values dropped by more than 10% during Super El Niño events (Fig. 3a, upper panel). In contrast, northern California experienced sharp increases in PVPOT during strong La Niña events such as those in 1984–1985, 1988–1989, 2011–2012, and 2021–2022 (Fig. 3a, upper panel). Similar, but less pronounced, drops and spikes in DJF PVPOT values occurred in southern Brazil (Fig. 3a, lower panel). The impacts of El Niño and La Niña events on PVPOT are also relevant in many other regions.
a DJF PV potential (PVPOT) relative to the 1982–2024 mean in northern California (upper panel) and southern Brazil (lower panel). The red-shaded columns highlight the Super El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016. Southern Brazil includes the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro. Northern California includes the counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, Siskiyou, Modoc, Trinity, Shasta, Lassen, Mendocino, Tehama, Plumas, Lake, and Sierra. Pearson correlation between the 12-month average PV potential (PVPOT) and the corresponding 12-month average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in: b the Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W), and c the Niño 1 + 2 region (0–10°S, 90°W–80°W). Data for the period 1982–2024 were analyzed. Stippling in plots b and c indicates statistical significance. The 12-month averages of PVPOT and SST in plots b and c are calculated from September to August of the following year. The PV potential (PVPOT) was calculated using data from the ERA5 reanalysis77 available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5. SST anomalies in the Niño Regions come from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), available at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for74. Plots were generated using Python’s Matplotlib library (version 3.4.3), available at https://matplotlib.org/3.4.3/contents.html.
Year-to-year changes in PV potential are influenced by the interannual variability of tropical Pacific SST. Across areas with high solar potential, there are significant correlations (either positive or negative) between SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region and PVPOT values (Fig. 3b). Regions with positive correlations are expected to see increases in PVPOT during El Niño events, likely due to sunnier conditions resulting from significant reductions in cloud cover. This is the case of southern Africa, eastern Australia, Southeast Asia, and the Amazon Basin (Fig. 3b). These increases are expected despite the fact that these regions will also experience significant spikes in air temperature during El Niño events that negatively affect PV cell performance (Fig. 2b). The strong positive correlations in the case of southern Africa, eastern Australia, Southeast Asia, and the Amazon Basin (Fig. 3b) highlight that the reduction in cloudiness and the resulting increase in solar irradiance during El Niño events have a much stronger influence on PVPOT than the temperature rise. Regions with negative correlations are expected to see increases in PVPOT during La Niña events. This is the case of southern Brazil, the Middle East, and southern and western USA (Fig. 3b). Conversely, these same regions are likely to experience decreases in PVPOT during El Niño events.
The PV potential is influenced by changes in SST in various Niño regions, including the Niño 1 + 2 region (off the western coast of Peru), the Niño 3 region (eastern Pacific), and the Niño 4 region (central Pacific). In most countries, correlations between SST anomalies in these regions and PVPOT values (Fig. 3c and S6a, b) are slightly weaker compared to the Niño 3.4 region (Fig. 3b). A notable exception is East China, where the correlation between SST anomalies in the Niño 1 + 2 region PVPOT values (Fig. 3c) becomes slightly stronger compared to the Niño 3.4 region (Fig. 3b). Nevertheless, regardless of which Niño region is used in the comparison, the areas showing the strongest correlations (whether positive or negative) are located in North and South America, particularly California, the southern Atacama Desert, central Chile, the Amazon Basin, and the Chaco region. As shown in Fig. 3c, the Amazon Basin is expected to see increases in PVPOT during warming events in the Niño 1 + 2 region, typically associated with eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events33. Conversely, California, the southern Atacama Desert, Central Chile, and the Chaco Basin (including southern Brazil and northern Argentina) are expected to experience declines in PVPOT during EP El Niño events. While SST anomalies in the Niño regions are often coupled (Fig. S2), fluctuations in the Niño 1 + 2 region tend to be stronger and more frequent than those in the other Niño regions52. For instance, the 2023–2024 El Niño was a strong event, particularly in the Niño 1 + 2 region53 (Fig. S2). However, the associated atmospheric response (specifically, changes in atmospheric pressure) was substantially weaker than those observed during the canonical Super El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016. The concurrent strong warming in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans was crucial in dampening the atmospheric response during the 2023 El Niño54, clearly distinguishing its impacts from those of the other three strong El Niño events. Nevertheless, the strong correlations in (Fig. 3c and S6a, b) underscore the influence of ENSO-driven fluctuations in tropical Pacific SSTs on the PV intermittency across large portions of the globe.
In vast regions of the planet, the effects of El Niño and La Niña events on PV potential are significant regardless of the season. For the austral spring (SON) and summer (DJF), we found relatively strong correlations (either negative or positive) between PVPOT and SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 Region across parts of South America (in particular across the Amazon Basin and the Chaco Basin), the Horn of Africa, Australia, Southeast China, and mainland Southeast Asia (Fig. S7). The correlations weaken across the Chaco Basin, Horn of Africa, Australia, Southeast China, but strengthen in mainland Southeast Asia during the austral fall (MAM) (Fig. S7a). The complexity of the climate system is further highlighted by shifts in correlations across regions and changes in sign during different seasons. For instance, the effects of SST fluctuations in the Niño 3.4 Region shift from eastern Australia in the austral spring (Fig. S7c) to western Australia in the austral summer (Fig. S7d). In the Horn of Africa, El Niño events can reduce PVPOT during the austral summer (DJF) (Fig. S7d) and increase it during the boreal summer (JJA) (Fig. S7b). Regional patterns remain similar in the case of correlations between PVPOT and SST anomalies in the Niño 1 + 2 Region (Fig. S8).
Our assessment of the impacts of the next Super El Niño event is based on the effects observed during past canonical Super El Niño episodes, under the assumption that the next event will likely exhibit similar large-scale characteristics. Relative to the 1982–2024 period, 12-month PVPOT anomalies during the three most recent Super El Niño events (1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016) averaged over +5% in parts of the Amazon Basin and approached −10% in parts of East China and the Chaco Basin (including southern Brazil and northern Argentina) (Fig. 4a). Positive anomalies indicate PV power surpluses (i.e., energy oversupply), while negative anomalies signal PV deficits (i.e., energy undersupply). Both can amplify intermittency, leading to grid congestion in the case of oversupply or increasing the need for backup and stabilization services during undersupply. In East China, negative anomalies were particularly intense in the provinces of Hunan, Guangdong, and Fujian, as well as in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Although less severe than in East China, negative anomalies also dominate in California, the southern Atacama Desert, and Central Chile (Fig. 4a). In parts of California and Central Chile, regions with high PV penetration and where the influence of El Nino is well established, 12-month PVPOT anomalies during the three most recent Super El Niño events approached −5% (Fig. 4a).
a A 12-month PV Potential (PVPOT) anomalies averaged during the Super El Niño events (1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016), relative to the 1982–2024 period. A 12-month positive anomalies suggest an increase in PV power output (i.e., energy over-production), while a 12-month negative anomalies indicate a decrease in PV power output (i.e., energy under-production). b 12-month PVPOT droughts derived from the 12-month PVPOT anomalies in (a). A mild, moderate, or severe drought is defined as a 12-month period in which PV potential (PVPOT) falls below the 30th, 20th, or 10th percentile, respectively, of the historical distribution for the same calendar period. We used data from 1982 to 2024 to compute these percentile thresholds. Stippling in plot a indicates statistical significance according to the two-sided Welch’s t-test. The 12-month PVPOT anomalies in plot (a) and the 12-month PVPOT droughts in plot (b) are calculated from August to July of the following year. Accordingly, we used the Super El Niño years 1982, 1997, and 2015 for the ASOND months and the Super El Niño years 1983, 1998, and 2016 for the JFMAMJJ months. PVPOT values were calculated using data from the ERA5 reanalysis77 available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5.
Expected Super El Niño–induced PVPOT anomalies are substantial enough to trigger multi-month solar energy droughts in vast regions. Seasonal and multi-month droughts in solar energy remain an emerging concept, with definitions varying widely across studies55,56,57. Traditional production-based metrics16 define energy droughts as uninterrupted sequences of days with anomalously low power production; however, these definitions were originally developed to characterize short-term (hour-to-day) fluctuations in solar resource availability. Here, we adopt the multi-month energy-drought thresholds proposed by Allen & Otero55, which classify moderate (severe) droughts as periods when energy potential falls below roughly the 20th (10th) percentile of the historical distribution for that same period. Using these thresholds and relative to the 1982–2024 climatology, our results indicate that the next Super El Niño event could produce 12-month PV droughts ranging from moderate to severe across large regions of East China, the Chaco Basin (including southern Brazil and northern Argentina), California, the southern Atacama Desert and Central Chile, as well as in the southern Arabian Peninsula (Fig. 4b).
The impact of Super El Niño events on PV power output varies by season. During the three most recent Super El Niño events (1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016), PVPOT in some provinces of East China dropped by up to −15% during boreal fall (SON) (Fig. S9). During the boreal summer (JJA), when solar yield typically peaks in the Northern Hemisphere, the declines in PVPOT in East China were less pronounced, yet still significant (~−5%) in the southeastern provinces (Fig. S9b). In California, PVPOT anomalies remain negative year-round during Super El Niño events, with declines ranging from around −3% during the boreal summer (Fig. S9b) to about −10% during the boreal winter (Fig. S9d). In the southern Atacama Desert, Central Chile, and the Chaco Basin (including southern Brazil and northern Argentina), PVPOT anomalies approached −10% during the austral fall (MAM) (Fig. S9a) and the austral winter (JJA) (Fig. S9b) but considerably weakened during the austral summer (DJF) (Fig. S9d).
The intensity of a Super Niño’s effects is not always the same. In some provinces of East China, 12-month PVPOT anomalies during the 1997–1998 Super El Niño approached −15% (Fig. S10), whereas they were much weaker (around −5%) during the most recent Super El Niño event. In California and the Chaco Basin, the decline in the 12-month PVPOT was markedly deeper during the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 events than during the 2015–2016 event (Fig. S10). Regarding positive anomalies, Super El Niño events consistently led to the largest spikes in 12-month PVPOT values (up to +10%) in the Amazon Basin (Fig. S10). While significant in many regions, the anomalies from the three most recent Super El Niño events (1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016) had minimal impact on the electrical grid due to low PV penetration at the time. When the 2015–2016 event occurred, global installed PV capacity was nearly ten times lower than today. As PV systems continue to expand, the energy grid is becoming increasingly susceptible to disruptions associated with Super El Niño events.
The expected rise in PV penetration will increase the grid’s vulnerability to Super El Niño events. Under a low-emission scenario, global PV generation is projected to grow 60-fold by mid-century compared to current levels3. By 2035, PV generation in East China, California, Argentina, and Chile is expected to increase by at least tenfold compared to 2023 levels (Fig. 5a, upper panel). At the same time, rising PV penetration will reduce carbon intensity, the amount of CO₂ emitted per unit of electricity generated. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects significant reductions in carbon intensity worldwide in the coming years58. Based on announced pledges and net-zero scenarios, East China’s electricity carbon intensity is expected to fall by half, while in California, Argentina, and Chile, it is projected to approach zero within the next decade (Fig. 5a, lower panel). Among major PV-producing regions (China, the EU, the USA, India, South Korea, Australia, Brazil, Chile, and Japan) only China and India have not committed to carbon neutrality by 2050 or earlier58. Tables S1 and S2 provide data on 2023 levels and future projections for PV generation and carbon intensity in key regions and countries.
a PV generation (upper panel) and carbon intensity (lower panel) in East China, California, Chile, and Argentina. In these regions with high PV penetration, the influence of El Niño is well established. In this study, East China includes the provinces of Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, Guizhou, Hainan, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, Shanxi, Yunnan, and Zhejiang; the autonomous region of Guangxi Zhuang; the direct-controlled municipalities of Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Tianjin; as well as the special administrative region of Hong Kong. Data for other regions and countries of interest are shown in Tables S1 and S2. b Expected impacts of next Super El Niño event on PV Potential (upper panel) and on CO2 Emissions (lower panel) in East China, California, Chile, and Argentina. The range of values in the upper panel is defined by the maximum and minimum anomalies observed in these countries and regions during the Super El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016 (Fig. S10). For Chile, the expected impacts were averaged over the area between 23°S and 37°S, which includes the southern Atacama Desert and Central Chile and where the country’s PV capacity is located. For Argentina, the estimates are averaged over the region north of 35°S, which contains the vast majority of its PV capacity. Data for other regions and countries of interest are shown in Tables S3 and S4. Boxplots in the lower panel are based on the simulations shown in Fig. S11. In each box, the central mark (white stripe) indicates the median, and the edges indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles. The whiskers extend to the maximum and minimum data, excluding outliers. Results for other regions and countries of interest are shown in Table S5. Carbon intensity and PV generation data for 2023 come from Ember´s Yearly Electricity Data (https://ember-energy.org/data/yearly-electricity-data/). In the case of East China, PV generation was derived from provincial-scale PV generation, sourced from the Chinese National Energy Administration (https://www.nea.gov.cn/2024-02/28/c_1310765696.htm). Projections of the carbon intensity are based on announced pledges and net-zero scenarios58. Projections of the PV generation are derived from the REMIND_EU 2.0 model, assuming the optimistic NewPl_1.5scenario3. Plots were generated using Python’s Matplotlib library (version 3.4.3), available at https://matplotlib.org/3.4.3/contents.html.
The next Super El Niño event will likely reduce PV generation in key regions. While such events can lead to increases in PV output (i.e., energy oversupply) in some areas, they also lead to significant decrease (i.e., energy undersupply) in others, such as East China, California, the southern Atacama Desert, Central Chile, and the Chaco Basin (including southern Brazil and northern Argentina) (Fig. 4a). Although the frequency of Super El Niño events is expected to increase in the 21 st century59, they have historically occurred approximately every 15–20 years, suggesting that the next event could occur before 2035. While the impacts of the next Super El Niño on PV generation remain uncertain, insights can be drawn from the three most recent events (1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016). For instance, the maximum and minimum PVPOT anomalies observed during these events (Tables S3 and S4) can be used to estimate the likely range of PVPOT reductions for the next Super El Niño. While the expected 12-month PV generation reductions can reach up to approximately 5% in California (Table S3), the 12-month PVPOT can decline by nearly 10% in some southeastern Chinese provinces, such as Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Fujian (Table S4). Figure 4c (upper panel) shows the expected range of 12-month PV generation declines during the next Super El Niño for East China, California, Argentina (averaged for the region north of 35°S), and Chile (averaged over the area between 23°S and 37°S, which includes the southern Atacama Desert and Central Chile). While the next Super El Niño could reduce the 12-month PVPOT by more than 8% in northern Argentina (Fig. 5b, upper panel), the effects may be particularly consequential in China. In the provinces of East China—home to nearly 90% of the country’s population—a Super El Niño could collectively reduce the 12-month PVPOT by more than 4% (Fig. 5b, upper panel), potentially leading to temporary energy deficits and increased emissions from backup energy sources.
Super El Niño events can temporarily increase carbon emissions by reducing PV generation in key regions. The impact on CO₂ emissions can be estimated by multiplying the expected decreases in PV generation by the carbon intensity of the affected country or region. This estimate assumes that ENSO-driven PV undersupply will be compensated by a mix of available backup sources rather than exclusively by carbon-intensive power plants (e.g., coal-fired plants). However, this assessment involves significant uncertainties. The exact timing of the next Super El Niño is unknown, as are the actual PV generation and carbon intensity levels at the time of the event. To account for these uncertainties, here we conducted Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the potential CO₂ emissions impact (Fig. S11). These simulations involved recursively computing the expected additional CO₂ emissions using large sets of previously generated values for carbon intensity and ENSO-driven PV undersupply (Fig. S11). Our simulations suggest that the next Super El Niño could temporarily increase CO₂ emissions by tens of millions of tons in regions with growing PV penetration, such as East China, California, Argentina, and Chile (Fig. 5b, lower panel). Most of these additional emissions are expected in East China, not only because it is one of the world’s most ENSO-sensitive regions but also because its carbon intensity is projected to decline more slowly than in California, Argentina, and Chile (Fig. 5a, lower panel). To compensate for the energy gap left by the next Super El Niño, China will likely still need to rely on carbon-intensive power plants as part of its backup energy mix.
El Niño and La Niña significantly amplify PV intermittency across vast regions of the planet. Our findings illuminate the impact of ENSO phases (i.e., El Niño and La Niña) on the seasonal-to-interannual variability of solar resources and PV power output. Using reanalysis datasets spanning four decades, we found that El Niño (La Niña) negatively (positively) affects surface solar irradiance, leading to season-spanning PV energy deficits (surpluses) in regions with increasing PV penetration, such as California, the southern Atacama Desert, the Chaco Basin, the Middle East, and East China. From both a reliability and financial perspective, persistent energy deficits (surpluses) are critical, as they can drive spot market prices up (down)26.
Super El Niño events can cause prolonged and severe PV deficits in key regions. As PV penetration rates rise, energy grids are becoming more vulnerable to ENSO-induced disruptions, particularly during Super El Niño events. Our analyses indicate that Super El Niño events can lead to season-spanning PV energy deficits of up to 10% across parts of East China, one of the world’s most populated and PV-intensive regions. While low PV penetration previously shielded the grid from ENSO-induced disruptions, the situation is rapidly changing. Since the most recent Super El Niño event in 2015–2016, China’s installed PV capacity has grown nearly fifteenfold. As PV penetration continues to increase, ENSO-driven PV intermittency will have greater implications for energy security, grid stability, and carbon emissions.
Super El Niño events can temporarily increase carbon emissions. By reducing PV generation in key regions, ENSO events can increase dependence on backup power, often from fossil fuels. We found that the next Super El Niño event could temporarily boost CO₂ emissions by dozens of millions of tons. Most of these additional emissions will likely occur in East China, where PV penetration is growing rapidly, but coal is expected to remain a major part of the energy mix for at least the next two decades58. While Super El Niño events may also reduce PV generation in regions of Europe and the U.S., the impact on emissions is expected to rapidly diminish as these regions transition to lower-carbon backup solutions. In affected regions, mitigating emissions from ENSO-driven PV intermittency will require enhanced energy storage and greater capacity redundancy.
The effect of eventual feedback loops between climate change and ENSO on solar resources remains uncertain. While climate change is expected to increase PV intermittency in some regions due to enhanced climate variability and extreme weather11,12, how ENSO itself may change under future greenhouse warming is still unclear60. Climate models suggest that under a likely emissions scenario, extreme El Niño frequency increases linearly with global mean temperature, doubling at 1.5 °C warming61. The frequency of Super El Niño events is projected to double in the 21st century, potentially occurring once every 10 years instead of every twenty59. Beyond the 21st century, however, climate-driven ENSO amplification may weaken or even reverse due to a collapse in equatorial Pacific upwelling62. Under high-emission scenarios, ENSO variability after 2100 may decrease from its earlier enhanced state to amplitudes smaller than those of the 20th century63. These projected climate-driven changes in ENSO highlight the importance of explicitly incorporating ENSO-related seasonal-to-interannual variability into the planning and design of climate-resilient PV-dominated electricity systems.
Overcoming ENSO-driven disruptions will require policies and investment. Recognizing the need to integrate climate extremes and extreme weather into energy planning and management is becoming increasingly widespread64. Our findings emphasize that managing ENSO-driven PV intermittency in high-penetration regions will likely require proactive curtailment65, demand response66, and policies promoting energy storage67; China’s mandatory coupling of storage with solar has already led to record deployment volumes1. While technological advances can help mitigate ENSO-driven PV intermittency, wide geographical distribution remains the simplest way to counteract the effects of enhanced climate variability.
Distributed generation and geographical diversity offer a feasible approach to accommodating high PV penetration and enhanced intermittency. As the energy system transitions toward greater reliance on PV, ensuring energy security requires overcoming local variability. When solar power is deployed over a large geographical area with significant time zone differences, intermittency is significantly reduced68, along with electricity market balancing costs69. By mapping the spatial footprint of ENSO-driven disruptions, we provide essential insights for energy planners to develop climate-resilient PV deployment strategies.
The strong regional dependence of ENSO-induced variability highlights the need for location-specific climate risk assessments in energy planning and the entwinement of energy systems with knowledge infrastructures. Future research should focus on improving seasonal and interannual climate forecasting to anticipate ENSO-driven PV disruptions and understanding how ENSO interacts with other climate modes, such as regional monsoons and large-scale circulation patterns. Additionally, strengthening the role of low-carbon dispatchable energy sources to mitigate PV undersupply will be crucial for minimizing excess emissions in regions negatively affected by ENSO events. A deeper integration of climate science into energy planning is essential for ensuring the long-term stability and sustainability of solar-powered energy systems.
The PV potential (PVPOT) is defined as the ratio of the power output under standard test conditions to the power output a PV module can achieve in the field12,37,38,39,40,41:
where ISTC represents the shortwave (SW) irradiance under standard test conditions (1000 W m−2), I is the SW irradiance reaching the PV module in the field, and PR is the performance ratio, which accounts for the impact of the cell temperature (Tcell) on the module’s efficiency. According to earlier studies12, PR can be calculated as follows:
where TSTC is typically 25 °C, and γ is 0.005 °C−1 for monocrystalline silicon cells70,71. According to Eq. (2), higher cell temperatures reduce the performance ratio. The cell temperature, Tcell, depends on air temperature (T) and surface wind speed (v). Following prior efforts41,48, Tcell can be estimated as:
where c1 = 4.3 °C, c2 = 0.943, c3 = 0.028 °C W−1 m2 and c4 = 1.528 °C m−1s. Equation (3) shows that increased wind speed enhances PV module cooling, leading to a lower cell temperature and, consequently, a higher performance ratio.
Although I, v and T change during the day, here we used monthly averages from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset (available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5) to compute monthly PVPOT values. Specifically, in Eq. (3), I corresponds to the monthly average of downwelling SW irradiance, v to the monthly average of surface wind speed, and T to the monthly average of surface air temperature. Our results are constrained by the spatial resolution of the ERA5 reanalysis data. Regional estimates (e.g., Northern California and East China) are based on spatial averages within those regions.
Despite its limitations, PVPOT is a widely used and well-established proxy for PV power output12,37,38,39,40,41. The absolute magnitude of PVPOT depends on the accuracy of the inputs in Eq. (1) and on the empirical coefficients in Eqs. (2) and (3), which may differ slightly from those used in PV modules deployed in various regions. These differences can introduce small biases in absolute values. However, they affect all calculations in a systematic manner and therefore have only a minor influence on anomalies or relative deviations computed with respect to a reference period. Because the ENSO-induced PV response arises from changes in irradiance and temperature rather than from module-specific characteristics, PVPOT is well-suited to assess the relative PV potential changes that are the focus of this study. This is consistent with previous research where PVPOT has been shown to reliably capture the climate-driven variability in PV output12,37,38,39,40,41.
Monitoring of ENSO conditions by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) primarily focuses on sea surface temperature (SST) in several geographic regions of the equatorial Pacific including the Niño 1 + 2 Region (right in front of the western coast of Peru), the Niño 3 Region (eastern Pacific), the Niño 4 Region (central Pacific), and the Niño 3.4 Region. In this study, we analyzed SST anomalies in El Niño regions produced by NOAA’s CPC, available at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for.
According to NOAA’s CPC, SST anomalies equal to or greater than 0.5 °C in the Niño 3.4 Region are indicative of ENSO warm phase (El Niño) conditions, while anomalies less than or equal to −0.5 °C are associated with cool phase (La Niña) conditions32. Super El Niño events are typically defined by SST anomalies of at least 2 °C in the Niño 3.4 Region30,31.
The expected CO₂ emissions (ΔCO₂) resulting from the next Super El Niño event were estimated using the following equation:
where PVEnergy represents the annual PV energy generation, CO2-intesity is the carbon intensity of electricity generation, and ΔPVPOT is the expected impact of the next Super El Niño event on PV potential in the country or region of interest. This estimation assumes that the energy shortfall caused by El Niño will be compensated using a mix of backup energy sources available in the country or region of interest, rather than relying exclusively on carbon-intensive power plants (e.g., coal power plants). In other words, for substantial but still moderate ENSO-driven deviations in solar generation (typically within ±10%), we assume most power systems compensate by proportionally increasing the dispatch of the available backup-energy mix. While the exact relationship between solar deficits and emissions may deviate from the strict linearity assumed in Eq. (4) under certain system configurations, we argue that such deviations will lead to uncertainties likely smaller than those introduced by the rapidly evolving energy mix itself.
Evaluating Eq. (4) requires accounting for significant sources of uncertainty. For instance, while a Super El Niño event may occur at any point within the next decade, the exact timing remains unknown. Additionally, the future values of PVEnergy, CO2-intesity, and ΔPVPOT at the time of the event are uncertain. To account for these uncertainties, Monte Carlo simulations72,73 were conducted for each country or region of interest.
To estimate the expected impact on CO₂ emissions if a Super El Niño event occurs within the next decade, we recursively applied Eq. (4) using large sets of previously generated values for PVEnergy, CO2-intesity, and ΔPVPOT.
For PVEnergy and CO2-intesity, values were randomly generated within the range defined by observed data from 2023 and projections for 2035 (Tables S1 and S2, respectively). While the former represents a worst-case scenario (with no progress over the next decade), the latter represents a best-case scenario, with PV generation estimates derived from the REMIND_EU 2.0 model, assuming the optimistic NewPl_1.5 scenario3, and carbon intensity values based on announced pledges and net-zero scenarios58.
For ΔPVPOT, values were randomly generated within the range defined by the maximum and minimum 12-month average PVPOT anomalies observed during past Super El Niño events (Tables S3 and S4). Positive anomalies indicate PV power surpluses (i.e., energy oversupply), while negative anomalies signal PV deficits (i.e., energy undersupply).
The randomly generated values were then used as inputs in Eq. (4). Simulation results for some key regions with high PV penetration (and where the influence of El Niño is well established) are shown in Fig. S11. Results for other regions and countries of potential interest are summarized in Table S5. Note that our projections for the expected impacts of the next Super El Niño event already account for an exceptionally wide range of possible future backup-energy mixes (Tables S1 and S2). The effect introduced by these possible future energy mixes is presumably much larger than any arising from residual non-linearities in our simplified linear model (Eq. 4).
We conducted Pearson correlation tests to evaluate the dependence between SST anomalies in the Niño regions and selected variables of interest (PVPOT, for example). A low p-value (lower than 0.05) indicates statistical significance, suggesting a dependent relationship between the two time series. The tests were conducted using both annual averages and seasonal averages, with the latter based on meteorological seasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON. For correlation maps, regions with statistically significant correlations are highlighted with stippling.
We used the two-sided Welch’s t-test to assess the significance of PVPOT anomalies during the Super El Niño events (1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016), relative to the 1982–2024 period. The two-sided Welch’s t-test is a variation of the Student’s t-test, but it is more reliable when the two samples have different variances and/or unequal sample sizes. The tests were conducted using both 12-month averages and seasonal averages, with the latter based on meteorological seasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON. Regions with statistically significant anomalies in Figs. 4a and S10 are highlighted with stippling.
As EU countries, we considered in this study Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.
In this study, East China includes the provinces of Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, Guizhou, Hainan, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, Shanxi, Yunnan, and Zhejiang; the autonomous region of Guangxi Zhuang; and the direct-controlled municipalities of Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Tianjin.
SST anomalies in the Niño regions come from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)74 available at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for. Data on PV capacity in plot (1a) (upper panel) are from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) renewable capacity statistics2, available at: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2024/Mar/Renewable-capacity-statistics-2024. Data on PV power plants in plots (1a) (lower panel) and (1b) are from the Global Energy Monitor75, available at: https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-solar-power-tracker/. PV generation and carbon intensity of electricity generation in selected regions and countries for 2023 (Table S1) come from Ember´s Yearly Electricity Data (https://ember-energy.org/data/yearly-electricity-data/). In the case of China, provincial-scale PV generation was calculated by multiplying the installed PV capacity per province and the corresponding capacity factor. While the latter comes from He & Kammen76, the former was quoted from the Chinese National Energy Administration (https://www.nea.gov.cn/2024-02/28/c_1310765696.htm). Expected changes in the carbon intensity of electricity generation in selected regions and countries over the coming decades (Table S2) are based on announced pledges and net-zero scenarios. Data for China, the EU, the USA, and India are sourced from the IEA58 available at https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/carbon-intensity-of-electricity-generation-in-selected-regions-in-the-announced-pledges-and-net-zero-scenarios-2000-2040. Estimates for France, South Korea, Italy, Australia, Spain, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Germany, and Japan assume pathways similar to those expected in the EU. All of these countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 or earlier. PV generation estimates for 2030 to 2050 (Table S2) for China, the EU, the USA, India, Japan, Germany, and France are derived from the REMIND_EU 2.0 model, assuming the optimistic NewPl_1.5scenario3. Projections for South Korea, Italy, Australia, Spain, Chile, Argentina, and Brazil assume growth pathways similar to those expected in the EU. Like the others, these countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 or earlier. PVPOT data were calculated using atmospheric data from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset77. Atmospheric data (including near-surface (2-m) temperature, wind speed, and the surface SW irradiance) come from the atmospheric reanalysis ERA5, produced by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)77. ERA5 data are available at: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5.
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The support of FONDECYT 1231904 and USACH DICYT Vicerrectoría de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación is gratefully acknowledged.
University of Groningen, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands
Sarah Feron, Richard Bintanja & Anne Beaulieu
Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Raúl R. Cordero & Jaime Pizarro
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
Alessandro Damiani
Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG), University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
Paul Upham & Xin Sun
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Department of Weather and Climate Modelling (RDWK), De Bilt, The Netherlands
Richard Bintanja
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA
Chenghao Wang
Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA
Chenghao Wang
College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA
Zutao Ouyang
Global Adaptation Center (GCA), Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Xun Sun
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Robert B. Jackson
Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Robert B. Jackson
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S.F., R.R.C., A.D., P.U., R.B., X.S., J.P., C.W., Z.O., Xu. S., A.B., and R.B.J. wrote the text. R.R.C. and S.F. contributed materials. S.F., R.R.C., A.D., and Xu S. analyzed the data. All authors reviewed the paper.
Correspondence to Raúl R. Cordero.
The authors declare no competing interests.
This research did not involve human participants or animal subjects. Ethical approval was therefore not required. The authors support inclusive, collaborative, and reproducible research practices.
Communications Earth and Environment thanks the anonymous reviewers for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editors: I-Yun Hsieh and Nandita Basu. A peer review file is available.
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Feron, S., Cordero, R.R., Damiani, A. et al. Photovoltaic power response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Commun Earth Environ 7, 325 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03343-z
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