Executive Summary Heat pumps are a proven way to provide secure and sustainable heating Heat pumps, powered by low‐emissions electricity, are the central technology in the global transition to secure and sustainable heating. Heat pumps currently available on the market are three‐to‐five times more energy efficient than natural gas boilers. They reduce households’ exposure to fossil fuel price spikes, which has been made all the more urgent by the ongoing global energy crisis. Over one‐sixth of global natural gas demand is for heating in buildings – in the European Union, this number is one‐third. Many heat pumps can provide cooling, too, which eliminates the need for a separate air conditioner for the 2.6 billion people who will live in regions requiring heating and cooling by 2050. Heating in buildings is responsible for 4 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 emissions annually – 10% of global emissions. Installing heat pumps instead of a fossil‐fuel‐based boilers significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissionsin all major heating markets, even with the current electricity generation mix— an advantage that will increase further as electricity systems decarbonise. Around 10% ofspace heating needs globally were met by heat pumpsin 2021, but the pace of installation is growing rapidly. The share of heat pumps is comparable to that of fuel oil for heating and of other forms of electric heating but lower than the over 40% of heating reliant on gas heating and the 15% reliant on district heating. In some countries, heat pumps are already the largestsource of heating. In Norway, 60% of buildings are equipped with heat pumps, with Sweden and Finland at over 40%, undercutting the argument that heat pumps are unsuitable for cold climates. Globalsales grew by nearly 15% in 2021, double the average of the last decade. Growth in the European Union was around 35%, and isslated to accelerate further in light of the energy crisis, with sales in the first half of 2022 roughly double over the same period last year in Poland, the Netherlands, Italy and Austria. China continues to be the largest market for new sales, while North America has the largest number of homes with heat pumps today. Together, these regions, along with Japan and Korea, are also major manufacturing hubs, home to the industry’s largest players.

The heat pump itself consists of a compressor, which moves a refrigerant through a refrigeration cycle, and a heat exchanger, which extracts heat from the source. The heat is then passed on to a heat sink through another heat exchanger. In buildings, the heat is delivered using either forced air or hydronic systemssuch asradiators or under‐floor heating. Heat pumps can be connected to a tank to produce sanitary hot water or provide flexibility in hydronic systems. Many of the heat pumps can also provide space cooling in summer in addition to meeting space heating needs in winter. In industry, heat pumps are used to deliver hot air, water or steam, or to directly heat materials. Large‐scale heat pumps in commercial or industrial applications or in district heating networks require higher input temperatures than in residential applications, which can be sourced from the waste heat of industrial processes, data centres or wastewater.

How a heat pump works

The efficiency of a heat pump depends critically on the source of the heat. In winter, the ground and external watersources typically remain warmer than the ambient air,so ground‐ source and water‐source heat pumps consume less electricity than air‐source ones, yielding a higher COP. This is particularly the case in cold climates where defrosting the outside components of air‐source heat pumps can consume additional energy. However, ground‐ source heat pumps are more expensive to install, as they require an underground heat exchanger – a deep vertical borehole or a large network of pipes buried at least one metre below the surface of the ground. Connecting a water‐source heat pump to a nearby river, groundwater or wastewater can also be costly.

Heating and cooling needs by region in the STEPS, 2021 and 2050

Industrial heat pumps There is considerable potential for electric heat pumps to provide process heat for industry. Because of the complexity of industrial processes, heat pumps generally need to be tailored to specific applications. In contrast to those used in buildings, industrial heat pumps typically rely on higher input temperatures, asthe required output temperatures are also significantly higher. Today, industrial heat pumps are mainly used for low‐temperature processes below 100 °C, notably in the paper, food and chemicals industries (Table 1.2). However, output temperatures of up to 150 °C can already be achieved if waste heat of about 100 °C is available as input. For temperatures between 150 °C and 200 °C, heat pumps need special refrigerants and compressors, for which technologies are still in an early prototype stage.

Industrial heat pump technology readiness by temperature range

Industrial heat pumps can be very efficient, with a COP of more than three, when the temperature lift, i.e. the difference between the input and output temperatures, is in the 30‐50 °C range. For higher temperature lifts, the COP is generally lower, though a heat pump can be configured in a way that limits the loss of efficiency, such as by incorporating intermediate heat exchangers or cascaded cycles(whereby the pump operates astwo single‐ stage cycles coupled together by a cascade heat exchanger). However, the costs of such heat pump systems are usually significantly higher. There is growing interest in the use of steam with mechanical vapour recompression (MVR) equipment in a similar way to heat pumps (that is, using electricity to upgrade heat to a higher temperature). When operating in a closed loop, as in a common heat pump, water can act as the refrigerant in the cycle. Its physical properties allow it to deliver higher target temperatures than other refrigerant fluids without constraints due to environmental or fire hazards. In an open‐cycle configuration, high temperature steam can be produced from lower pressure steam or condensate. As steam is one of the preferred heat carriers in industry, the technology is well‐suited to meet industrial heating needs.

The running costs of a heat pump are also affected by how well it is operated and maintained. It is essential that the owner of a heat pump isinformed about correct handling and the need for thorough maintenance by qualified technicians so that they operate efficiently and at optimal cost throughout their lifetime. Air‐source heat pumps can become clogged with dirt over time, leading to increased electricity consumption and premature wearing of the unit, as well as noisier operation. Refrigerants also tend to leak out over time, which reduces efficiency, as well as contributing to climate change (see Chapter 2). Refrigerant leakage warning systems are currently commercially available for large heat pumps; a roll‐out to residential systems could help users identify the reason for loss in performance and avoid the emission of refrigerant gas.

Annual heat pump electricity consumption by building energy efficiency class in Denmark, 2022

Meeting the growing demand for heat pump installers in the European Union The REPowerEU targets for heat pumps, reflected in the APS, call for an increase in the number of trained heat pump installers from around 40 000 in 2019 to 110 000 by 2030. Certification is mandatory across all EU countries for heat pump installations that require refrigerant handling by the installer, which is the case for most systems, except self‐ contained systems like a monobloc. With increasing restrictions on F‐Gas refrigerant usage in line with the Kigali Amendment, the required certification may pass from handling of F‐Gases to handling of flammable material. However, for the majority of installations, requirements for training and certification of installers vary between countries, despite the requirement for mutually recognised certification under the Renewable Energy Directive. Given the enormous differences in the maturity of the heat pump market across countries, collaboration between them on heat pump installer training and transfer of best‐practice know‐how could help ensure efficient and high‐ quality installations and achieve the REPowerEU targets.

Number of employees in occupations related to heat pump installation with labour shortages in the European Union, 2020 and 2030

Additional training requirements will put a strain on an already tight European labour market. There is a shortage of workers in a range of occupations related to heat pump installations, such as plumbers and pipefitters, air‐conditioning and refrigeration mechanics, electrical mechanics and fitters, and electricians. In a recent survey, hiring gaps for plumbers and pipefitters were reported by the most countries, with that occupation ranking second for shortages among all economic sectors (ELA, 2021). However, the number of heat pump installers and those servicing heat pumps remains far smaller than the current employment in related occupations. This places the focus squarely on incorporating heat pump‐specific training into existing certification schemes and providing incentives to attract workers already in related occupations to pursue heat pump certification schemes. Rapid upskilling and training will be crucial to meet growing demand for installers. Some measures could alleviate the risk of worsening labour shortages, including revising existing certification curriculum for plumbers, electricians and HVAC mechanics;reducing training hours and recertification to needed minimums; subsidising training costs; and introducing a comprehensive EU‐wide certification scheme, which would improve the visibility of training requirements and improve labour mobility.

The Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine and its subsequent decision to slash deliveries of natural gas to Europe have plunged the world into the biggest energy crisis since the 1970s. While Europe is at the epicentre, surging energy prices are hitting households and companies around the world, giving additional reason for governments to step up urgent efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels as the effects of the global climate crisis become ever more apparent. This report assesses the role that heat pumps could play in addressing both energy security and climate imperatives, focusing on the concrete steps needed to accelerate their deployment over the rest of the current decade. Heat pumps can reduce the European Union’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels by replacing gas‐ and oil‐fired boilers.1 In the longer term, they are set to play the leading role in decarbonising the provision of heat as part of efforts to achieve net zero emissions of carbon dioxide by 2050. Heat pumps can be installed in buildings and district heating networksto provide both heating and cooling, and in industry to provide low‐ and medium‐temperature heat. As they are very energy efficient, they can lower energy bills for both households and businesses. To the extent they are powered by low‐emissions electricity, their use resultsin far less greenhouse gas emissionsthan standard heating equipment today. While heat pumps can be designed to provide both heating and cooling (known as reversible heat pumps), this report focuses on heating. Special focus is given to the implications of heat pump deployment in Europe for that region’s gas demand in light of the European Union’s policy objective, adopted in March 2022, of eliminating Russian imports of natural gas well before 2030.

Source:http://IEA