A new study by researchers at UNSW Sydney has found that around 20 per cent of solar panels may degrade far faster than expected, with some potentially lasting only half of their anticipated lifetime.
The study analysed nearly 11,000 photovoltaic samples from around the world and identified a “long tail” in the distribution of panel performance, where a significant number of panels lose energy or fail unexpectedly early.
“Most solar systems are designed to last around 25 years, based on their warranty period,” said Yang Tang, a PhD student and co-author of the paper published in IEEE. 
“For the entire dataset, we observed that system performance typically declines by around 0.9% per year. However, at least one in five systems degrade at least 1.5 times faster than this typical rate, and roughly one in 12 degrade twice as fast. This means some systems could have a useful life closer to just 11 years.”
The UNSW team, including Dr Fiacre Rougieux, Dr Shukla Poddar, and Associate Professor Merlinde Kay, analysed data collated by the US Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory. 
The research found three main contributors to rapid panel degradation: interconnected failures, early-life defects known as “infant mortality,” and minor flaws that lead to sudden performance loss.
Importantly, the researchers said climate conditions did not explain the long-tail effect.“However, in other climates, when those hot regions are being excluded from the analysis, we see similar long-tail pattern in the probability distribution of performance degradation rate,” Dr Poddar said. 
“This suggests that the issue is consistent regardless of where the panels are operating.”
According tp Dr Poddar, the findings could have implications for manufacturers and solar farm operators, as early failures increase maintenance costs and affect long-term energy yield. 
Dr Poddar said the team hopes the research will support improved testing standards and more resilient module designs.
“We aim to understand different factors contributing to module failures in different climate types to develop early detection system and recommend manufacturers to improve design robustness,” Dr Poddar said.
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