Why China is leading perovskite solar commercialization
Existing solar industry and unique business environment enables fast, cheap scale-up
by Andy Extance, special to C&EN
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China is by far the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter, but the country also has an outsized role in low-carbon energy infrastructure. It already dominates silicon-based solar panel manufacturing, and now it’s leading the world in bringing much-hyped perovskite solar technology into mass production (PDF).
Across the world, perovskites attract both enthusiasm and skepticism. Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at the clean energy research firm BloombergNEF, is in the skeptical camp, emphasizing that perovskites must survive intense competition. Today, China makes 95% of all the world’s polycrystalline silicon, a critical raw material for solar panels, Chase says. But hundreds of gigawatts per year of solar manufacturing lines are sitting idle, mainly in China.
“The solar manufacturing industry is in a bloodbath, prices aren’t covering cost, and the big players are laying off staff,” she says.
Still, in China, government officials, researchers, and executives in industry are teaming up with academics to commercialize perovskites. Four start-ups are already selling megawatts’ worth of perovskite panels, more output than the rest of the world combined, and a fifth company, Wonder Solar, is due to join them later this year. All have plans to open factories in 2025 that will produce enough panels in a year to generate at least 1 GW of electricity.
By comparison, companies in other countries are “more likely to struggle,” says Jian Zhao, a senior project manager at Mitsui & Co. Global Strategic Studies Institute. “While Japanese and European companies are competitive with China on the technological front, they will probably face challenges in cost reduction and securing demand,” he says.
Renshine Solar
Technology: Roll-to-roll compatible coating process for large-area perovskite film formation; vacuum deposition for charge transport layers
Commercial status: 10 MW R&D center and 150 MW mass production line; planning a gigawatt capacity line
Founded: 2021
Wonder Solar
Technology: Solution-phase printing methods
Commercial status: Two 200 MW capacity plants operational; one up to 3 GW plant under construction. Products will be commercially available in late 2025.
Founded: 2016
UtmoLight
Technology: Vacuum deposition and then a solution process for the perovskite layer; physical vapor deposition for electron transport materials
Commercial status: 150 MW pilot line; 1 GW plant already operational at 25% capacity
Founded: 2020
GCL Optoelectronic Materials
Technology: Solution coating and then crystallization for the perovskite layer; physical vapor deposition for electron transport materials
Commercial status: 100 MW pilot line operational since 2021, mainly R&D focused; building complete for a 1 GW line, with equipment due to be operational by end of 2025
Founded: 2010
Microquanta Semiconductor
Technology: Solution-based roll-to-roll compatible coating for perovskite layer
Commercial status: 100 MW plant in operation since 2023; planning a gigawatt-scale plant
Founded: 2015
Perovskites in solar cells have little in common with the calcium titanium oxide (CaTiO3) mineral discovered by Russian scientist Lev Perovski, other than the ABX3 formula. In solar panel perovskites, A is a positively charged organic group, usually a methylammonium or formamidinium ion, or a metal ion, typically cesium, rubidium, or sodium. B is a smaller cation, generally lead, but some research devices use tin to avoid toxicity. X is a negatively charged ion, often iodide but sometimes bromide.
These crystals’ superpower is that they can form light-absorbing semiconductor films that are easily coated onto surfaces. In such a film, incoming light pushes negatively charged electrons into higher-energy states, leaving behind “holes” that act like positively charged particles. If electrons and holes separate and head to electrodes above and below the perovskite film, electric current can flow.
Most perovskite cells include electron and hole transport materials between an absorbing film layer and the electrodes. Early cells ordered layers in a negative-intrinsic-positive (NIP) design, in which electrons travel upward and holes downward.
The first perovskite solar cells emerged from Toin University of Yokohama in 2008, and the cells converted just 3.8% of the light received to electricity. Despite the low conversion rate, scientists leapt on the technology.
Gradually, Chinese researchers and companies started appearing on efficiency record tables. By 2019, Microquanta Semiconductor had a world-record 17.3% efficient perovskite minimodule. In January 2025, GCL Optoelectronic Materials claimed a 22.4% record for a large module design featuring a single perovskite layer. Current commercial silicon solar panels often have efficiencies around 23%.
Such meteoric progress has been possible because perovskite cells are easy to make using inexpensive and low-energy processes that take place in water.
The easy fabrication also means that while perovskites will mainly complement silicon, they could replace it in niches because of lower production costs, says Hyae Ryung “Helen” Kim, an economist at Columbia Business School.
Miranda Zhao, board secretary of Wonder Solar, says her company’s products are likely to initially cost 30% more than silicon panels, but she expects prices to fall to 30% below silicon as the firm scales up manufacturing.
Perovskites offer environmental advantages as well. Converting sand into silicon requires massive amounts of energy and uses toxic gases, notes Buyi Yan, Microquanta’s chief technology officer. Microquanta has measured its emissions as 150 g of CO2 per watt of generating capacity. The literature figure for silicon is over 400 g per watt, Yan says.
Such benefits have attracted Chinese government attention. “China has listed perovskite as a key direction for energy innovation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,” which runs from 2021 to 2025, explains Yunqi Huang, international business manager at Renshine Solar. The support means scientists bring laboratory results to market in less than 2 years in China, Huang says, compared with up to 5 years in other countries.
Chinese manufacturers of perovskite solar cells also benefit from local supply chains, explains Martin Wang, GCL’s director responsible for capital markets and overseas operations. Companies easily find equipment and materials suppliers nearby, he says, and potential employees are plentiful as well. Overall, Wang says, construction costs are much lower in China than in other countries.
For example, Sekisui Chemical plans to spend $600 million to build a 100 MW per year perovskite manufacturing plant in Japan. The company’s long-term plan is to spend $2.1 billion to reach 1 GW of capacity per year.
That compares to a cost of $140 million reported for a 2GW peryear plant Wonder Solar is building in China. Renshine’s gigawatt-scale plant, also in China, is due to cost $175 million. On top of these low costs, the Chinese government supports companies by building factories and then leasing them out or by forming joint ventures to build them.
Yet these firms are taking significant risks related to the panels’ ease of fabrication. The fact that perovskite compounds dissolve in water means that the lead in the panels might dissolve and escape. And water, light, and oxygen can easily break down perovskite materials. Such issues raise doubts about whether perovskites can offer the 20-year minimum lifespan that solar panel buyers expect.
Mitsui’s Zhao anticipates a 5-to-10-year lifespan for perovskite panels. He notes that China is testing their limits with multiple megawatt-scale demonstrations in deserts, plateaus, islands, and cold regions.
These are utility-grade, grid-connected sites, run in partnership with state-owned power-generation companies, says Jesse Zheng, senior vice president at UtmoLight. “At this stage, they only buy our panels for testing,” he says. “By collaborating with them we have real-world data. So far, so good.”
UtmoLight already offers a 10-year product warranty and a 25-year guarantee on the rate of power output degradation, Zheng says. Microquanta offers a product warranty lasting 12 years and guarantees power output degradation of less than 20% over 20 years. These warranties are similar to those for silicon solar panels and show that these companies are confident about matching silicon lifespans.
“Perovskites could contribute 10–20% of new solar capacity by 2035 if commercialized successfully.”
Wonder Solar started tests on a 110 m2 outdoor perovskite array in 2018, the world’s first such large experiment. Zhao says the firm has seen very little performance deterioration. “That proves that perovskites have very good stability and durability,” she says.
Microquanta, UtmoLight, GCL and Renshine now have outdoor test installations and make similar claims. The four companies have officially passed International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61215 standard panel stability assessments conducted in Germany. The tests are underway for Wonder Solar’s panels.
If durability claims hold up, it will be thanks at least in part to innovations in manufacturing and cell design from the Chinese companies. For example, Renshine has inverted the NIP stack, allowing it to use stabler hole transport materials. The company says it can deposit perovskite layers on the hole transport layer at lower temperatures, creating fewer defects where degradation can start. This arrangement’s “stability is significantly superior,” Huang says.
Another way to make perovskites durable is to protect them from oxygen and moisture by encapsulating sensitive layers thoroughly with glass or plastic films. The encapsulation assembly also prevents leakage of lead, which, despite toxicity concerns, all the companies use in their absorber layers.
UtmoLight’s Zheng says a perovskite panel contains 0.5–1 g/m2 of lead in its absorber layer, whereas full-size 2.8 m2 silicon panels contain 4 g of lead in their solder. Wang likewise claims that GCL’s perovskite panels contain less lead than silicon panels. He says researchers at his company submerge panels underwater for months and then test the water for lead leakage. “The result is actually better for our perovskites than for silicon,” Wang says.
Such results will no doubt interest three of the world’s largest silicon solar panel makers, Chinese firms that are also developing perovskite technology.
Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, and LONGi are developing “tandem” solar cells that put a perovskite layer on top of conventional silicon technology. Together, the two technologies can exceed the 30% theoretical efficiency limit of silicon alone. Trina has licensed tandem cell patents from the UK’s Oxford PV, a perovskite pioneer. LONGi holds the record of 34.85% efficiency for a perovskite-silicon tandem cell.
Chase from BloombergNEF says she doubts the seriousness of these firms, arguing that, despite years of effort, perovskite technology can’t compete with silicon on cost and reliability. They “aren’t in production or seriously planning to be—they are just showing off,” she says. “They are desperate to demonstrate some kind of lead on the rest of the market. It’s like a peacock tail.”
GCL is also developing tandem cells, and Wang says the gigawatt-scale factory the firm is establishing is dedicated to producing them. GCL’s investors “see us as the driver, the leader in the perovskite space,” Wang says.
In tandem with silicon or on their own, if perovskite solar cells can meet price targets and last for 20–30 years, “they could significantly boost solar deployment,” Columbia’s Kim says. “Perovskites could contribute 10–20% of new solar capacity by 2035 if commercialized successfully,” she says.
Microquanta’s Yan says perovskite panel sales could capture 10% of the solar panel market by 2027, but not only because of low cost. Instead, he says, many buyers in China would pay extra for a 26% efficient perovskite-silicon tandem panel, which he thinks will be the first widely accepted perovskite product. It’s one of many ifs, but if Yan is right, perovskite technology will help China decarbonize energy generation yet further.
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