Solar energy
The international solar panel market is undergoing a significant inflection point. After years of falling prices, manufacturers indicate that 2026 should see a consolidation. a new cycle of adjustments, with increases that can reach up to 30% throughout the year. The trend became more clearly visible at the end of 2025 and is already affecting negotiations in different regions.
Executives from Chinese companies reported to Canal Solar that the first price increases have already been applied. Between the end of December 2025 and the beginning of January 2026, the prices of photovoltaic modules rose between 10% and 15%. However, further adjustments are expected in the coming months as structural factors gain strength.
This scenario marks a significant shift for a sector that had been operating at historically low levels since 2023, when oversupply and reduced production costs pushed prices down.
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According to Matheus Cerutti, Head of Sales Latam at Astronergy, the first increase was noteworthy because of the timing of its occurrence. “At the end of last year, there was already an expectation of an increase, but the move ended up happening faster than many anticipated. This first adjustment was already around 10%,” he stated.
According to the executive, the market has not yet fully absorbed this new level. Furthermore, there are clear signs that the initial adjustment will not be an isolated event. “I believe there could still be another increase of around 10% by or shortly after the Chinese New Year. It’s a scenario analysis, not an absolute certainty, but the signs point in that direction,” he explained.
According to Cerutti’s assessment, the sector is undergoing a structural adjustment, not a one-off event. The combination of fiscal changes, industrial reorganization, and rising input costs creates a higher-cost environment for solar panel manufacturers.
One of the key factors cited by manufacturers is the potential elimination of VAT (Value-Added Tax) refunds, an incentive granted by the Chinese government to exports. Currently, this benefit is around 9%, after having been reduced from levels close to 13% in previous years.
Cerutti warned of the direct impact of this change. “When this incentive is withdrawn by the Chinese government, the impact will be direct. We’re talking about another 9% increase in price,” he emphasized.
According to the executive, more recent contracts already incorporate automatic readjustment clauses linked to changes in Chinese fiscal policy. This indicates that the market is anticipating the end of the benefit. “I believe that the accumulated increase throughout the year could reach something between 25% and 30% compared to the prices of Chinese photovoltaic modules practiced until the end of last year,” he concluded.
Beyond the tax issue, the photovoltaic industry is facing significant changes in its production structure. According to Cerutti, the Chinese government has begun imposing stricter capacity control guidelines, especially in the polysilicon segment.
This policy contributed to a price increase of nearly 50% for this input throughout 2025. Polysilicon is one of the main components of the solar energy chain, and its price increase directly impacts the final cost of solar panels.
Meanwhile, manufacturers are shutting down old production lines. Technologies considered outdated, such as PERC, are being gradually replaced by new generation modules. This process requires significant investments and reduces the available supply in the short term, which increases pressure on prices.
Another important factor driving the price increase is the rising value of essential raw materials. Silver, copper, and aluminum have seen significant price increases, affecting the cost per Watt of photovoltaic modules.
Silver, in particular, is used in the metallization of solar cells, forming the conductive tracks. The price of the metal has been rising since the end of 2025 and is already directly impacting industrial costs.
Felipe Santos, LATAM regional director at Osda Solar, stated that the upward trend did not begin now. According to him, it is a gradual process. “The upward trend in solar panel prices did not start now, but has been building since the end of 2025, driven by a combination of structural and macroeconomic factors,” he explained.
Besides silver, aluminum is another important element. “The price of aluminum has skyrocketed, and this directly impacts the cost of the module,” said Santos, noting that the metal is widely used in the structures of solar panels.
The exchange rate also comes into play. The appreciation of the Yuan against the Dollar puts pressure on international prices, since production costs are mostly in local currency. To maintain profitability, manufacturers adjust prices in Dollars.
Santos also highlighted the role of production capacity control imposed by the Chinese government. According to him, the reduction in oversupply creates an environment of greater price discipline. “In addition to the measures adopted to stabilize the industry and make it healthier, these macroeconomic factors have been strongly impacting module prices since the end of last year,” he concluded.
Despite the prospect of significant increases, industry executives point out that current prices are still far from the levels seen in previous years. Cerutti highlighted that, since January 2023, prices have fallen by about 65%, reaching a historic low.
Even with the adjustments projected for 2026, the market is not expected to return to 2022 levels. This factor helps explain why some in the sector see the move as a necessary correction for the industry’s sustainability.
He holds a degree in Advertising from UERN; a master’s degree in Social Communication from UFMG; and is pursuing a PhD in Language Studies at CEFET-MG. He has worked as a freelance writer since 2019, with texts published on websites such as Baixaki, MinhaSérie, and Letras.mus.br. Academically, his work has been published in books and presented at industry events. Among his research topics, he is particularly interested in the publishing market from a perspective that considers different social markers.
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