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IndexBox has just published a new report: China – Solar Cells and Light-Emitting Diodes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
This article provides a comprehensive analysis of China’s market for solar cells and light-emitting diodes (LEDs) in 2024, with forecasts to 2035. It details that domestic consumption grew to 63 billion units, while production saw a significant decrease to 138 billion units. The market value dropped to $7.8 billion in 2024 but is forecast to reach $17.4 billion by 2035, growing at a 7.6% CAGR. Trade data shows a surge in imports to 97 billion units, largely from Hong Kong SAR, and exports of 173 billion units, primarily to Germany. The analysis covers production, consumption, import/export volumes and values, price trends, and key trading partners, highlighting the market’s complex dynamics of robust domestic demand against shifting production and trade patterns.
Key Findings
Driven by increasing demand for solar cells and light-emitting diodes in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +7.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 135B units by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +7.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $17.4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
For the eighth year in a row, China recorded growth in consumption of solar cells and light-emitting diodes, which increased by 5.5% to 63B units in 2024. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a resilient expansion from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +131.2% against 2013 indices. Solar cells and light-emitting diodes consumption peaked in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.
The value of the market for solar cells and light-emitting diodes in China reduced sharply to $7.8B in 2024, dropping by -24% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a noticeable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Solar cells and light-emitting diodes consumption peaked at $10.3B in 2023, and then declined significantly in the following year.
In 2024, production of solar cells and light-emitting diodes decreased by -42.4% to 138B units for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a resilient increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 1,876%. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum volume at 240B units in 2023, and then contracted notably in the following year.
In value terms, solar cells and light-emitting diodes production dropped significantly to $60.2B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, saw strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 1,611%. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level at $105.4B in 2023, and then reduced dramatically in the following year.
After two years of decline, overseas purchases of solar cells and light-emitting diodes increased by 253% to 97B units in 2024. In general, imports posted a resilient expansion. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at 121B units in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, solar cells and light-emitting diodes imports totaled $6.3B in 2024. Overall, imports, however, saw a pronounced decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 29%. Imports peaked at $10.6B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.
In 2024, Hong Kong SAR (83B units) constituted the largest solar cells and light-emitting diodes supplier to China, accounting for a 85% share of total imports. Moreover, solar cells and light-emitting diodes imports from Hong Kong SAR exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Japan (12B units), sevenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Malaysia (446M units), with a 0.5% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume from Hong Kong SAR totaled +18.9%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Japan (+4.9% per year) and Malaysia (-0.9% per year).
In value terms, Hong Kong SAR ($2.7B) constituted the largest supplier of solar cells and light-emitting diodes to China, comprising 44% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Taiwan (Chinese) ($876M), with a 14% share of total imports. It was followed by Japan, with a 14% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Hong Kong SAR stood at +2.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Taiwan (Chinese) (-9.0% per year) and Japan (-6.5% per year).
In 2024, the average import price for solar cells and light-emitting diodes amounted to $65 per thousand units, which is down by -71.4% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a abrupt curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when the average import price increased by 123% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $334 per thousand units in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($69 per unit), while the price for Hong Kong SAR ($33 per thousand units) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+52.5%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.
In 2024, overseas shipments of solar cells and light-emitting diodes decreased by -17.1% to 173B units, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, exports, however, enjoyed a strong expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 14,123% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum at 258B units in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, solar cells and light-emitting diodes exports shrank sharply to $34.3B in 2024. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a buoyant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when exports increased by 52%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $50.8B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.
Germany (69B units) was the main destination for solar cells and light-emitting diodes exports from China, with a 40% share of total exports. Moreover, solar cells and light-emitting diodes exports to Germany exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Pakistan (19B units), fourfold. Mexico (12B units) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 7.1% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Germany stood at +21.7%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Pakistan (+40.1% per year) and Mexico (+45.6% per year).
In value terms, the largest markets for solar cells and light-emitting diodes exported from China were the Netherlands ($4.7B), Brazil ($2.6B) and Pakistan ($2B), together accounting for 27% of total exports. Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Germany, Belgium, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Mexico and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.
Among the main countries of destination, Saudi Arabia, with a CAGR of +67.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In 2024, the average export price for solar cells and light-emitting diodes amounted to $199 per thousand units, declining by -13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a perceptible decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 an increase of 17,789% against the previous year. The export price peaked at $31 per unit in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.
Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Hong Kong SAR ($1.5 per unit), while the average price for exports to Germany ($8.9 per thousand units) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Hong Kong SAR (+5.7%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
This report provides a comprehensive view of the solar cells and light-emitting diodes industry in China, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the national value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.
Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between domestic suppliers and international partners. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the solar cells and light-emitting diodes landscape in China.
The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics for China. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts.
This report provides a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for China. The profile highlights demand structure and trade position, enabling benchmarking against regional and global peers.
The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.
All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.
The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links solar cells and light-emitting diodes demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts in China.
Each projection is built from national historical patterns and the broader regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.
Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.
Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of solar cells and light-emitting diodes dynamics in China.
The market size aggregates consumption and trade data, presented in both value and volume terms.
The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.
Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.
The report benchmarks market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for China.
Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.
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