TOPCon solar shift could cut 8.2Gt CO₂e by 2035 – The Engineer

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A multi-university study has found that switching to next-generation solar panels, alongside cleaner power and supply-chain improvements, could cut solar manufacturing emissions by up to 8.2 gigatonnes CO₂e by 2035.
The research examined the environmental impact of the solar sector as deployment accelerates towards multi-terawatt scale. With solar manufacturing expanding rapidly, the carbon footprint of producing panels is becoming increasingly important alongside the emissions avoided when solar replaces fossil-fuel electricity.
The study, published in Nature Communications, looked at the industry’s ongoing transition away from the current mainstream cell architecture, passivated emitter rear cell (PERC), towards tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) photovoltaics.
Using life-cycle assessment (LCA) modelling, a team from Warwick University and the Universities of Northumbria, Birmingham and Oxford compared the complete manufacturing lifecycle of both technologies.
The analysis found that TOPCon manufacturing has lower environmental impacts in 15 out of 16 assessed categories compared with PERC. The researchers reported a 6.5 per cent reduction in climate-changing emissions per unit of electricity capacity for TOPCon, while identifying increased silver consumption as the main drawback due to its contribution to critical mineral depletion.
“Multi terawatt scale photovoltaic manufacturing demands a sharper focus on its full environmental footprint”, Dr Nicholas Grant, Associate Professor at Warwick University, said in a statement. “Our paper shows how targeted improvements across the supply chain can deliver sustainable manufacturing at the terawatt-scale, avoiding 25 gigatonnes of manufacturing related CO₂ emissions if installed by 2035, while supporting rapid global deployment.”
Modelling also highlighted manufacturing location as a significant factor in the lifecycle footprint of solar panels. The authors found that producing photovoltaics using lower-carbon electricity grids – such as those in parts of Europe – could materially reduce manufacturing emissions compared with production in regions reliant on fossil-fuel generation.
By combining widespread TOPCon adoption with manufacturing efficiency improvements and continued grid decarbonisation, the team calculated that industry could potentially reduce manufacturing-related emissions by up to 8.2 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2035. The study described this as roughly 14 per cent of current annual global emissions. Separately, it projected that photovoltaics installed between 2023 and 2035 could avoid more than 25 gigatonnes of carbon emissions overall by displacing fossil-fuel electricity generation.
“Solar photovoltaics is a critical technology that can be used globally now to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and create energy security,” said senior author Professor Neil Beattie, Northumbria University. “This is especially important as our demand for electricity soars over the next decade driven by applications in transport, heating, and digital infrastructure for AI.
“Even when manufacturing impacts are considered, solar photovoltaics remains one of the lowest-impact and most sustainable electricity generation technologies available over its whole life cycle and we should concentrate on deploying it at scale, now.”
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Jason Ford
Sounds like good research, which backs up many other studies over the last 15 years. A problem to be faced, which has emerged over the last 5 years or…
Sad to hear. Especially when defence needs such technology. However 4 years ago they were going to launch in 2023. What went wrong? Was it lethargic…
Let's see the sums and assumptions. These types of estimates always seem to come out with nice round numbers. I think a forensic review/audit of…

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