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A UK government-commissioned feasibility study suggests space-based solar power could be economically competitive by 2040, according to pv magazine. The report indicates that with investment and support, small-scale space-based solar power could become viable, and the electricity generated might participate in the UK’s contracts for difference scheme.
The analysis forecasts a significant drop in the levelized cost of electricity for small-scale orbital solar plants, from a range of GBP 0.0335 to GBP 0.0595 per kilowatt-hour in 2030 to a range of GBP 0.0087 to GBP 0.0129 per kilowatt-hour by 2040. This could make the technology competitive with nuclear and tidal power. The feasibility study was commissioned by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and conducted by Fraser-Nash Consultancy, Space Solar Engineering Ltd, and Imperial College London.
Launch costs are identified as the most significant factor affecting the levelized cost of electricity, accounting for over 50% of its variance. The study’s cost projections are based on anticipated specifications for SpaceX‘s Starship rocket, assuming a launch cost to low Earth orbit of GBP 550 per kilogram in an optimistic 2040 scenario and GBP 770 per kilogram in a conservative one. The model assumes Starship will provide at least 100 tons of capacity and that its launch cost will fall linearly by 30% from 2030 to 2040.
The technology involves converting DC electricity to radio frequency in orbit, beaming it to Earth, and reconverting it to DC at a ground antenna. The study examined a reference design with receivers in Aberdeen, UK; Edmonton, Canada; and Sapporo, Japan. It found solar panels in a high elliptical orbit could provide power to the UK for 95.7% of an average year, with constant power possible when paired with a battery energy storage system.
A drop in the investor hurdle rate from 20% in 2030 to 9.1% in 2040 is also expected to lower costs, driven by technical improvements and increased commercial viability. The report concludes that the first small-scale systems will require significant public and private support in 2030, but this need may be negligible by 2040. Developing small-scale systems is seen as a pathway to making larger plants more feasible, potentially reducing the levelized cost for first-of-a-kind large-scale plants by 16% to 27%.
Potential market opportunities for UK-focused projects include power provision to small island nations, iron and steel production, mining, data centers, and green hydrogen production.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
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