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Did we just pass “peak solar”?
That’s the claim now circulating among many analysts. Hitting net zero will require 630 gigawatts of panels to be installed every year between 2030 and 2050, the International Energy Agency estimates. But we already blew past that target with 654 GW built last year, according to BloombergNEF.
China’s installs have hit a permanent peak, Sam Wilkinson, head of renewables at S&P Global Commodities, told the Redefining Energy podcast recently. With that one country making up nearly half the global market, the world will see connections drop in 2026, he added. Strip out the “buffer” of entirely unexpected demand that BloombergNEF build into their forecasts to account for the way solar routinely outperforms, and it looks like we’re never going to get past the 633 GW connected in 2025.
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