The era of historically low prices for photovoltaic systems is drawing to a close, experts warn. Several factors are converging at once: China’s move away from export rebates, rising raw material prices, and a strained market for battery components. Industry experts anticipate noticeable price increases within the current year.
The most significant trigger for the expected price increases comes from Beijing. China’s Ministry of Finance, together with the State Taxation Administration, has announced that VAT export rebates for photovoltaic modules will be completely abolished as of 1 April 2026. Chinese manufacturers have until now been able to benefit from a tax refund on exports, which allowed them to bring products to international markets at particularly low prices.
This is already the second major adjustment within a short period of time. On 1 December 2024, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products had already been reduced from 13 to 9 percent. With the complete abolition from April 2026, this cost advantage will disappear entirely. Since almost 90 percent of solar modules sold in Germany originate from China, this decision has immediate consequences for the European market.
A graduated arrangement applies to battery products: between 1 April and 31 December 2026, the rebate rate will be reduced from nine to six percent. Complete abolition will then follow on 1 January 2027. This phased adjustment is intended to give battery manufacturers room to adapt existing supply contracts and production plans.
The measure affects various product groups along the entire PV and storage value chain. In the solar sector, these include monocrystalline silicon wafers, uninstalled solar cells, and finished solar modules. In the battery sector, lithium-ion battery cells and battery storage systems are affected, as are precursor materials for lithium-based batteries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxides.
Alongside the changes in China’s export policy, key raw material prices have risen considerably. Particularly notable is the development in silver: the international silver price temporarily exceeded the mark of 70 US dollars per ounce by the end of 2025, recording a cumulative increase of more than 130 percent over the course of the year. As a central material in the metallisation step of solar cells, silver is difficult to replace at short notice and currently accounts for around 15 percent of total module costs.
Polysilicon, the key raw material for the production of solar cells, has also become noticeably more expensive. After Chinese manufacturers had curtailed their production to reduce an existing oversupply, the spot price rose from around four euros per kilogram in the summer to approximately 6.39 euros (as of 19 January 2026). This represents an increase of more than 37 percent compared to the previous year’s summer.
Added to this are higher prices for aluminium, which is required for module frames, as well as a sharp price increase for lithium carbonate, which is relevant for battery storage systems. The latter currently costs more than twice as much as it did six months ago.
Jannik Schall, Chief Product Officer and co-founder of 1KOMMA5°, clearly quantifies the immediate impact of China’s export policy:
“The abolition of export rebates alone will cause module prices to rise by around ten percent. Due to the additionally high raw material prices, we expect price increases of 15 to 20 percent for individual components. In the medium term, private customers will also be affected.”
Schall adds with regard to the timing of the price impact:
“As soon as the political measures, production cuts, and high raw material prices are fully reflected in supply chains, rising prices on the German market are to be expected. Anyone therefore considering investing in a photovoltaic system can still benefit from the currently lower prices.”
The Austrian PV system provider Enerix also contextualises the development. The company points out that a three-month transition period applies before the new regulation comes fully into force. Products that were already shipped to Europe in containers before the cut-off date will remain eligible for rebates under the previous conditions. Whether and to what extent the higher export costs will actually be passed on in offer prices depends, according to Enerix, on competition, inventory levels, and contract structures.
Behind the new export policy lies a shift in industrial policy direction. By adjusting export incentives, the Chinese government is responding to structural overcapacities in parts of the solar and battery industry. These had intensified price pressure, caused margins to fall, and exacerbated trade policy tensions in key import markets. The aim of the measure is therefore to slow the price decline in photovoltaic products, reduce overcapacities, and prevent trade conflicts.
On the German market, the increased raw material and export costs have not yet fully materialised. Prices for solar modules have so far risen only slightly. Industry observers expect, however, that this will change over the course of 2026, once the altered framework conditions have fully worked their way through the supply chains.
Aus Datenschutz-Gründen ist dieser Inhalt ausgeblendet. Die Einbettung von externen Inhalten kann in den Datenschutz-Einstellungen aktiviert werden:
Datenschutz-Einstellungen

source