We use cookies to improve your experience and for marketing. Read our cookie policy or manage cookies.
Search across reports, market insights, and blog stories.
New system-level modelling from the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics indicates achieving specific solar cost targets could create a solar PV market on a 2,000-gigawatt scale in Australia. According to the research, this development could fundamentally transform the national energy system and unlock substantial export opportunities for green metals and industrial products.
The collaborative project, led by academics from the Australian National University with contributions from UNSW researchers, is described as the first integrated modelling to quantify the full industrial and export opportunity created by ultra-low-cost solar at a national scale. The team used a newly developed model to examine how the Australian Renewable Energy Agency‘s 30-30-30 target might reshape the economic landscape.
The agency’s vision aims for 30% solar module efficiency at an installed cost of 30 cents (US$0.20) per watt by 2030, resulting in a levelised cost of electricity below 20 Australian dollars per megawatt hour. The modelling suggests ultra-low-cost solar could support national energy systems delivering 1,000 terawatt-hours per year for domestic use and 2,600 terawatt-hours annually for export through green metals, industrial products, and fuels like ammonia.
The analysis posits that 2,000 gigawatts of solar PV could power a fully decarbonised domestic economy and support large-scale green metals production for export. The research demonstrates that such solar costs fundamentally change the economics of the energy transition, enabling electricity markets to deliver fully renewable energy at costs below current wholesale prices.
The modelling indicates green aluminium, ammonia, and steel production could reach cost parity with conventional methods under this scenario, while aviation electro-fuels move significantly closer to commercial viability. The study’s key innovation is its integrated, system-level approach, which treats industrial decarbonisation, electricity market transformation, and green commodity production as interconnected within a single modelling framework.
The Australian Renewable Energy Agency has launched several initiatives to realize its vision for ultra-low-cost solar. A 100 million Australian dollar challenge opened in June 2024 to break down barriers in solar PV projects. Previously, a robotics company secured 4.9 million Australian dollars through the initiative to deploy an installation robot at utility-scale solar plants.
The agency has also committed 60 million Australian dollars specifically for ultra-low-cost solar research and development in Australia. These investments complement broader manufacturing initiatives, including a commitment to a 500-megawatt PV module manufacturing hub, which aims to establish domestic production capacity.
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
The Largest Import Supplying Countries
The Largest Destinations for Exports
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
Instant access. No credit card needed.
Online access to 2M+ reports, dashboards, and tables. Trusted by Fortune 500 teams.
IndexBox, Inc.
2093 Philadelphia Pike #1441
Claymont, DE 19703, USA
Contact us
© 2026 IndexBox, Inc
Instant access. No credit card needed.
Online access to 2M+ reports, dashboards, and tables. Trusted by Fortune 500 teams.

source