EnergyTrend reports that persistent oversupply and weak demand continue to weigh on solar PV prices across the entire value chain, with limited signs of a near term recovery as inventory levels remain elevated and purchasing activity slows.
In the upstream segment, polysilicon inventories have climbed beyond 520,000 metric tons, signalling ongoing accumulation and intensifying pressure on producers to clear stock. Monthly output has increased compared to the previous month, even as downstream demand is expected to decline sharply, worsening the supply demand imbalance.
Wafer manufacturers are operating below cash cost levels, forcing them to reduce procurement and adopt just in time purchasing strategies. Transactions are limited to small volumes, with buyers maintaining strong downward pressure on prices. As a result, prices for mono dense polysilicon have dropped below RMB 40 (US$ 0.058) per kg, while granular silicon is approaching the same level. Recent policy signals aimed at stabilising prices have provided some support to market sentiment, but high inventories and weak demand continue to cap any meaningful rebound.
In the wafer segment, inventories stand at approximately 25 GW, reflecting continued oversupply. Although leading manufacturers have indicated possible production cuts to support pricing, shipment pressure remains high. Demand from downstream cell producers has been slower than expected, limiting the sector’s ability to absorb excess supply.
Prices continue to decline across all wafer formats, with M10 at around RMB 1.0 per piece, G12R at RMB 1.1 per piece and G12 at RMB 1.3 per piece. Smaller manufacturers and traders are driving price reductions to clear inventories, although large volume orders still allow room for negotiation. With prices already below cash cost levels, further downside may be limited unless oversupply persists. A coordinated production cut by major players could support a recovery.
The solar cell segment is also facing mounting pressure, with inventory levels exceeding one week of production and slower than expected stock clearance. Demand has weakened as overseas buyers reduce procurement ahead of changes to export tax rebate policies, while domestic module manufacturers are becoming more cautious amid falling prices.
Cell prices have declined to around RMB 0.40 (US$ 0.058) per W, driven by lower wafer costs and weak downstream demand. The outlook remains bearish, with further price reductions likely in the near term and little indication of stabilisation.
In the module segment, leading manufacturers are attempting to maintain price levels, but increased competition from smaller producers and traders offering discounted products is pushing prices lower. Market demand remains largely export driven, but the urgency of overseas installations is easing as policy changes approach, reducing appetite for higher priced contracts.
Domestically, demand is expected to improve in April, although resistance to higher module prices remains strong. Utility scale developers are adopting a wait and see approach, targeting transaction prices below RMB 0.75 (US$ 0.11) per W.
Current transaction prices from smaller suppliers have already fallen below RMB 0.78 per W, reinforcing expectations of further declines. Market negotiations later this month are likely to establish RMB 0.75 per W or lower as the prevailing price range. Until demand shows clear signs of recovery, module prices are expected to remain under sustained downward pressure.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal






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