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According to a report from pv magazine, polysilicon prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks, briefly reaching low-to-mid CNY 40 per kilogram levels before stabilizing slightly above CNY 50 per kilogram. This price point remains near historical lows and is below the production costs for most manufacturers. The decline is attributed to persistent oversupply and weakening demand in the market.
An analyst from OPIS notes that oversupply is a longstanding structural issue and the primary driver of recent price declines. Additional downward pressure came from a change in Chinese policy regarding an export tax rebate for downstream photovoltaic products, which led to front-loaded shipments earlier in the year and softer subsequent orders. Coordinated industry controls on pricing and production have been suspended, and expected replacement policies to manage excess capacity have not materialized.
Chinese regulatory bodies have issued notices calling for action against disorderly competition and promoting price recovery for products including polysilicon. However, these measures are described as policy guidance with unclear implementation and have not yet produced a tangible market impact. Meanwhile, some industry consolidation activity was reported in the first quarter, with leading manufacturers announcing plans to acquire smaller producers.
Production costs for polysilicon have fallen in recent years. Despite these cost reductions, current market prices are below the manufacturing cost for most producers, resulting in widespread financial losses. The price drops are characterized as a passive response to market pressure rather than a strategic move based on lower costs.
Potential future environmental regulations introducing stricter energy efficiency standards could reduce effective production capacity. However, this proposal is in a draft stage, and any meaningful market impact is not expected until the year after its official release.
Demand in the second quarter is expected to deteriorate further. Additionally, the upcoming wet season in key production provinces may lead to increased output in the third quarter as manufacturers take advantage of lower hydropower electricity costs. Industry participants believe any short-term market improvement will depend on the implementation of meaningful policy measures.
Current prices are approaching the historical low recorded in the middle of last year. In response, several specialized producers have cut output, and the average industry operating rate is expected to fall below 50%. The cancellation of the export tax rebate has contributed to a demand shortfall in the current quarter.
The decline in polysilicon prices has been more rapid and severe than the decrease in module prices. Data indicates the cost of polysilicon as a proportion of domestic module prices has fallen significantly since the beginning of the year.
Some polysilicon producers are halting production and limiting shipments, using vertically integrated capacity to convert inventory into modules. Market participants indicate that if significant policy measures do not materialize by May, they may implement substantial strategic adjustments. This could lead to discounted sales or inventory clearance as module inventories are likely to be high.
Interactive table based on the Store Companies dataset for this report.
This report provides a comprehensive view of the silicon industry in China, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the national value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.
Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between domestic suppliers and international partners. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the silicon landscape in China.
The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics for China. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts.
This report provides a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for China. The profile highlights demand structure and trade position, enabling benchmarking against regional and global peers.
The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.
All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.
The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links silicon demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts in China.
Each projection is built from national historical patterns and the broader regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.
Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.
Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of silicon dynamics in China.
The market size aggregates consumption and trade data, presented in both value and volume terms.
The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.
Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.
The report benchmarks market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for China.
Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.
Report Scope and Analytical Framing
Concise View of Market Direction
Market Size, Growth and Scenario Framing
Commercial and Technical Scope
How the Market Splits Into Decision-Relevant Buckets
Where Demand Comes From and How It Behaves
Supply Footprint and Value Capture
Trade Flows and External Dependence
Price Formation and Revenue Logic
Who Wins and Why
How the Domestic Market Works
Commercial Entry and Scaling Priorities
Where the Best Expansion Logic Sits
Leading Players and Strategic Archetypes
How the Report Was Built
Major polysilicon and solar producer
Subsidiary of GCL Tech
Historic polysilicon volume leader
NYSE listed, high efficiency
Diversified industrial group
Integrated PV manufacturer
Major integrated PV player
World's largest wafer producer
Integrated PV manufacturer
Integrated PV producer
Rapidly expanded polysilicon
Diversified heavy electrical
Part of Tongwei supply chain
Specialized wafer producer
Core unit of Canadian Solar (China HQ)
Key upstream raw material supplier
Primary operating unit of Daqo
Polysilicon specialist
GCL Tech's core polysilicon unit
Formerly part of CSG Holding
Silicon wafer manufacturer
Silicon metal producer
Integrated energy group
State-owned energy group unit
Regional energy group expanding
GCL's key Xinjiang base
Tongwei affiliate, large capacity
Polysilicon producer in North China
PV manufacturer with wafer production
Key production subsidiary of Jinko
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