Research from Germany’s FernUniversität Hagen finds the solar rebound effect, caused by households increasing their total electricity consumption after installing a solar system, is currently a blind stop in Europe’s energy system planning and abatement scenarios.
Suburban rooftop solar power generation in Canberra, Australia
Image: Benlisquare, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
The solar rebound effect, which occurs when rooftop solar adoption increases household electricity consumption, could create additional system costs in Europe of up to €23.5 billion ($27.6 billion) a year, new research has found.
Mensur Delic and Michael Bucksteeg, from FernUniversität in Hagen, Germany, studied the phenomenon’s role within Europe’s energy system by integrating various solar rebound effect intensities into an open-source optimization model of Europe’s energy system. 
The research found the solar rebound effect may increase electricity demand by 63 TWh to 314 TWh by 2050, increasing Europe’s total demand by up to 5.1%, under the worst-case scenario. This additional demand would require additional renewable generation and grid flexibility, which could increase total power system costs by €6.7 billion to €23.5 billion annually between 2030 and 2050.
Delic and Bucksteeg told pv magazine their work highlighted that the solar rebound effect is not currently accounted for in official energy system planning and abatement scenarios, leaving a significant blind spot. The pair added that it is not just the magnitude of the rebound that matters, but critically also its timing. 
“When households consume additional electricity during sunny hours, the system can absorb this demand at relatively low cost,” they explained. “However, when rebound consumption shifts into evenings or winter periods, driven by higher baseline demand or changes in usage patterns, it triggers the need for more wind generation, battery storage, and costly long-duration backup such as hydrogen, substantially raising infrastructure requirements and costs.”
Delic and Bucksteeg also said that the effect brings regressive distributional implications. “The additional system costs are passed through to all electricity consumers via higher prices, disproportionately affecting households that cannot afford to install a PV system,” they explained.
An accompanying policy brief to the research calls on policymakers to incorporate the solar rebound effect into official system planning, in order to ensure energy infrastructure is designed for realistic demand. It also emphasizes that the effect should not be treated as a fixed increase in demand, as it timing varies across hours and seasons and therefore can substantially change infrastructure needs, system costs and planning outcomes.
Delic and Bucksteeg aslo explained that under binding emissions cap and climate targets, additional demand caused by the solar rebound effect must be met by renewable energy sources.
“Whether this implies more solar or wind capacity depends on the timing of the rebound effect,” they said. “The associated increase in flexibility needs requires additional battery storage, although more flexible demand can help limit this requirement. At the same time, higher peak loads, for example due to increased use of air conditioning in summer-peaking systems, may raise the need for backup capacity, provided in the short term by natural gas and in the long term by renewable hydrogen.”
The pair also stressed that meeting additional demand does not simply mean building more generation capacity.
“The least-cost strategy depends critically on when that demand occurs. The first priority should therefore be demand-side policy with incentives that encourage households to shift flexible consumption to sunny hours,” they explained. “If policymakers succeed in steering consumption toward periods of high solar output, for example through dynamic feed-in remuneration schemes or by requiring dynamic electricity tariffs for PV households, the system can absorb much of the additional demand with relatively small infrastructure adjustments.”
Delic and Bucksteeg also suggested that expanding grid infrastructure and enhancing cross-border market integration can help accommodate the additional flexibility requirements induced by the solar rebound effect. “By enabling the spatial balancing of renewable generation and demand, a more interconnected system reduces reliance on local storage and backup capacity, thereby limiting overall system costs,” they said.
Their findings are presented in the research paper “Implications of the solar rebound effect for the European energy transition,” available in the journal nature energy.
Previous research on the solar rebound effect from Australia and Vietnam found the phenomenon could happen in any country where the policy supporting solar is not fully and scientifically explained. Last year, researchers from Switzerland’s University of Bern found that the installation of a residential rooftop PV system could increase a household’s power consumption by up to 11%.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: editors@pv-magazine.com.
More articles from Patrick Jowett
The premise of the article is flawed. If you make your own electricity why does increased consumption matter? And why for that matter would it increase consumption? I don’t think that cause effect link was clearly explained. This just seems like a hit piece against the concept of solar without the bother of having any facts.
Please be mindful of our community standards.
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *
Comment *
Name *
Email *
Website
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.


Δ
By submitting this form you agree to pv magazine using your data for the purposes of publishing your comment.
Your personal data will only be disclosed or otherwise transmitted to third parties for the purposes of spam filtering or if this is necessary for technical maintenance of the website. Any other transfer to third parties will not take place unless this is justified on the basis of applicable data protection regulations or if pv magazine is legally obliged to do so.
You may revoke this consent at any time with effect for the future, in which case your personal data will be deleted immediately. Otherwise, your data will be deleted if pv magazine has processed your request or the purpose of data storage is fulfilled.
Further information on data privacy can be found in our Data Protection Policy.
Legal Notice Terms and Conditions Data Privacy © pv magazine 2026
Δ
This website uses cookies to anonymously count visitor numbers. View our privacy policy. ×
The cookie settings on this website are set to “allow cookies” to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click “Accept” below then you are consenting to this.
Close

source