Electricity prices increased across most major European power markets in the third week of May, driven primarily by a sharp decline in wind generation and higher electricity demand in several countries, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
Despite the price increases, European markets also recorded record levels of daily solar photovoltaic production for the month of May, highlighting contrasting dynamics in renewable output. At the same time, TTF gas futures briefly climbed to their highest level since 8 April before later retreating.
While solar generation increased in the main European markets, the rise was uneven. Germany posted the largest increase at 28%, followed by Italy (19%) and France (11%). Spain saw a marginal rise of 2.2%, while Portugal increased by 9.4%. France and Spain extended their upward trend in solar output for a third consecutive week.
Several markets reached record daily solar production for May during the week. Italy generated 160 GWh on 20 May, its highest daily solar output for the month, while Portugal reached 28 GWh the same day. Spain recorded 227 GWh, its second-highest daily solar output for May. France reached a historical May peak of 169 GWh on 22 May, and Germany hit 480 GWh on 25 May, its highest level for the month and the second-highest ever recorded for solar generation.
However, wind power declined sharply across all analysed markets. Germany experienced the steepest fall at 57%, followed by France (33%), Portugal (30%), Spain (28%), and Italy (13%). Portugal extended its downward trend for a second consecutive week.
Electricity demand increased in Germany (4.2%), Belgium (3.9%), Spain (1.7%), and Portugal (1.8%), while it declined in Italy, France, and Great Britain. The United Kingdom recorded the largest drop at 5.8%, while France fell by 1.3%.
Temperature increases across Europe influenced consumption patterns, with Germany registering the largest rise (7.0°C), followed by France (6.1°C). In addition, public holidays, including Ascension Day and Whit Monday, affected demand in several markets.
Most European power markets recorded higher weekly average prices compared to the previous week. Exceptions included Spain, Portugal, and the Nordic market, which saw declines of 2.7%, 2.9%, and 19%, respectively. France recorded the largest increase at 11%, while other markets rose between 3.3% (Great Britain) and 7.9% (Belgium). Italy posted a marginal increase of 0.1%.
Weekly averages exceeded €75/MWh in most markets. The lowest averages were recorded in Spain (€48.48/MWh), Portugal (€48.53/MWh), and France (€48.94/MWh). Italy and Great Britain posted the highest levels, at €116.31/MWh and €123.33/MWh respectively. The Nordic market averaged €75.79/MWh, while Germany reached €105.42/MWh.
Daily prices showed strong volatility. On 24 May, Spain, France, Portugal, and the Nordic market recorded values below €30/MWh, with the Nordic market hitting a weekly low of €8.40/MWh. Conversely, Germany, the UK, Italy, and the Netherlands frequently exceeded €100/MWh. The UK reached the weekly peak at €141.25/MWh on 18 May.
According to AleaSoft, upward pressure on prices was mainly driven by lower wind generation, higher gas prices, and increased demand in some markets.
Brent oil futures (Front-Month ICE) fell over the week, starting at a high of $112.10/bbl on 18 May and declining to $103.54/bbl by 22 May, down 5.2% from the previous Friday. The decrease was linked to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of improved supply conditions.
TTF gas futures rose early in the week, reaching a peak of €51.82/MWh on 19 May, their highest level since 8 April, before declining to €48.68/MWh by 22 May (-3.0% week-on-week). The fall was attributed to reduced supply concerns, high temperatures, and weaker demand.
EU carbon allowance futures (EEX December 2026 contract) fluctuated throughout the week, ending at €76.94/t, up 1.7% from the previous week.
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