Polysilicon production in Australia could be both feasible and globally competitive, provided manufacturing plants operate at an annual capacity of at least 50,000 metric tons (MT) and benefit from pricing conditions that support long-term industry growth.
The conclusion comes from a new report by researchers at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) on behalf of the Austrialian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA).
“Outside China, polysilicon can reach prices of up to $24/kg in premium segments,” lead author Michelle Vaqueiro Contreras told pv magazine. “In this context, Australia is likely to compete within these differentiated market segments. Australia’s competitive advantage lies in its established capability in large-scale chemical processing and commodity trade, strong environmental, social, and governance (ESG) credentials, capability to produce low cost renewable energy, access to high-quality raw materials such as quartz and metallurgical-grade silicon, and a unique potential to leverage existing relationships with leading manufacturers to accelerate capability development.”
Vaqueiro Contreras aknowledges that current polysilicon spot prices in China are extremely low, but also highlights that this price level reflects a combination of oversupply, state-backed industrial policy and short-term market dynamics, rather than a sustainable long-term benchmark. “This dynamic has resulted in the Chinese government implementing ‘self-discipline’ measures last year and now tightening standards for quality and environmental rules to reduce oversupply,” she went on to say. “However, at the same time, new premium markets have emerged in Western countries, increasing the demand for traceable, ESG-compliant, low-carbon polysilicon from diversified supply chains. Even within China, there is a secondary market for traceable polysilicon that trades at a premium, typically around $10–14/kg I when it meets stricter labour and sourcing requirements.”
The researchers believe that adopting the Siemens production process would be the preferred option by potential polysilicon makers in Australia. “It is considered the most viable pathway, as it is a proven and mature technology favored by most manufacturers today, accounting for around 90% of current production capacity,” said Vaqueiro Contreras. “It is also free from intellectual property constraints that could hinder immediate large-scale deployment and offers a direct route to producing higher-purity polysilicon for semiconductor applications.”
The scientists developed preliminary cost estimates as part of the pre-feasibility analysis and sustainable pricing for a factory of scale and latest technology, and found that the price of Austalian polysilicon could easily sit between the Chinese and US price range and be competitive.
“This being a first-of-a-kind plant in Australia and a new industry will require initial government support, not unlike the rest of the regions like USA, EU, and India trying to support new industries, and even within China, which has benefited from large government investments,” said Vaqueiro Contreras. “In Australia we have explored a wide range of scenarios and found that the best combination would be an up-front grant of $1-1.5 billion given the capital intensity of this plant and a production credit equivalent to that of the Inflation Reduction Act in USA of $3/kg produced for 10 years. We have engaged with a broad network of industry stakeholders and found strong interest in Australian-made polysilicon. However, acting quickly will be key to meeting the projected demand gap from 2030 onwards.
In the report “Australian Silicon (AusSi) Study,” the UNSW group identified the Hunter Energy Hub in New South Wales as a potential location. It is part of broader state-level planning for renewable energy zones and industrial decarbonization, aiming to attract industries such as hydrogen production, green steel, and ammonia. The idea is to co-locate major electricity demand with new renewable generation, storage, and transmission infrastructure, helping reduce energy costs and emissions for heavy industry.
The report also shows that the Australian PV manufacturing ecosystem is actively evolving through coordinated government initiatives, including the National Reconstruction Fund (NRF), Future Made in Australia, and ARENA’s Solar Sunshot program, which are already catalyzing investment across the entire PV value chain. The project pipeline also includes high-purity quartz and metallurgical silicon projects in Townsville, Queensland, and established metallurgical silicon production in Wellesley, Western Australia.
Overall, the report frames polysilicon as a strategic opportunity aligned with Australia’s clean energy transition and industrial development goals.
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