Energy load growth in the U.S. is distributed across many sectors beyond data center requirements, EV charging and onshoring manufacturing. A recent report from Alberta-based Enverus Intelligence Research projects that the transitions from fuel-based technologies for many industrial and residential applications, such as space heating, will add 24 GW of load in the continental U.S. and 78 GW by 2050.
According to Enverus, electrification will account for about 4.1% of the total domestic load in the lower 48 states by 2035, however this will not be evenly distributed. About 69% of new loads will fall in the PJM, MISO and NYISO service areas.
Industrial electrification represents the largest share of new demand, the report said, accounting for 11.4 GW (47%) of total load growth. Commercial and residential sectors are expected to add 6.8 GW (29%) and 5.7 GW (24%), respectively.
Kevin Kang, report author and senior analyst at Enverus Intelligence Research, told pv magazine USA that key drivers of electrification load increase are a combination of new heat pump technologies and state policy directives mandating their adoption, such as the NY State All-Electric Buildings Act. His report projects load growth of 27% in ISO New England and 21% in New York ISO by 2035.
“With the adoption of heat pumps in the next five years, you could see loads change significantly,” Kang said. “When you have a really cold winter and all these heat pumps come on at the same time will spike that winter peak much higher than the grid is prepared for today.”
Ideally, the load increases from electrification could be met my increasing installations of solar and storage. Kang points out that many grid operators in the Northeast, such as PJM, NYISO and New England ISO, have a lot of solar in their queues being built right now. Moreover, there are a number of well-funded state solar incentive programs throughout the region.
At the same time, Kang cautions that without significant planning, winter load spikes could undermine future electrification efforts. State-level electrification mandates, particularly in colder regions, are expected to drive significant relative load increases, he said. These are likely to increase winter weather sensitivity and contribute to greater market volatility.
“It’s actually ironic because when you run the economics for how heat pumps work – they move heat, they don’t generate heat – they become much less efficient in the winter while they’re very efficient in the summer,” Kang said. “Solar, particularly in the Northeast, is also less efficient in the winter, when you will be seeing the seasonal spike in load demand.”
Extreme cold weather events in the region, such as Winter Storm Fern in January, can cause widespread disruption of solar generation leading to temporarily increased reliance on fossil fuels. Given regional constraints on natural gas supplies, this has meant more oil burning.
“All types of electrification, not just heating, are time sensitive,” Kang said. “You have things like electric vehicles that need to charge overnight, you have data centers coming online, and now you add the heating and electrification portions, so it becomes a very challenging policy-driven task to plan for this.”
Retail power prices will increase depending on the infrastructure that’s being built by these utilities, he concluded. Solar generation could help address load demand and price volatility if projects proceed along with electrification trends. Otherwise, grid operating will be scrambling to meet projected load increases.
The Enverus report includes the following takeaways:
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