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Coal, which still provides almost all the grid’s flexibility including ancillary reserves, is being cycled from near-full output at night to its lowest point at midday every single day. It is increasingly pushed to and below its minimum technical load – the floor below which stable operation is not possible. Once there, it cannot provide downward reserves, and renewable generation must be curtailed just to keep coal physically operable. The curtailment this causes represents a significant volume of clean electricity wasted. The constraint is structural, it worsens with every new solar panel added, and it has a direct solution: storage, deployed at scale, with the connectivity rules to match.
Solar and wind curtailment is becoming a visible part of India’s real-time grid balancing. The volumes are already noticeable and rising. Without sufficient flexibility, including storage, this could become a constraint on the next phase of renewable energy growth.
Solar and wind now supply around 17% of India’s electricity generation on an annual average basis – but at midday, the share can reach 41%. It is this peak that tests the system. This large solar fleet pushes coal down to and sometimes below its minimum technical load, the floor below which stable plant operation is no longer possible. Once coal hits that floor, it has no further room to provide downward reserves, when it is needed most.
Coal is being pushed to its limits to absorb rising solar generation. Since March 2026, its share has swung daily from nearly 90% at night to just over 50% at midday, pushing many plants to or below their 55% minimum technical load. Since April 2026, coal has breached that floor in over half of midday dispatch intervals, leaving little room to ramp down further. As coal has been the main source of downward reserves, those reserves are disappearing exactly when these reserves are needed the most – when solar output is highest.
When coal is scheduled below its operating floor, renewable generation must be curtailed to bring it back up. At midday, up to 6% of solar and wind generation was curtailed for this reason alone – not due to congestion or weak demand, but because coal could not go lower. In March 2026, the coal fleet was already 3.2 GW below technical minimum on average during midday. By April 2026, renewable curtailment met 37% of down-regulation, or 816 MU, up from near zero a year earlier. As solar capacity grows, this pressure will only intensify
Around 10 GWh of storage charging during the midday window would have been sufficient to absorb surplus renewable generation, keep coal above its minimum technical load, and avoid curtailment. This storage is primarily needed to provide downward reserves and be scheduled to bring coal plants closer to technical minimum.
The 3.37 GWh Khavda BESS project was commissioned in May 2026 within ten months. Deployment is not the constraint. Current connectivity rules can require BESS projects to add commensurate renewable generation before long-term grid charging is permitted, adding delays and restricting the operation the system needs most. Batteries that charge from grid surplus during solar hours can reduce curtailment and provide down reserves. This should be allowed by default, not restricted by connectivity conditions linked to co-located generation.
This creates two distinct operational challenges: variability and forecast uncertainty.
Variability is predictable but growing. Solar follows a daily pattern: it rises in the morning, peaks around midday, and falls in the evening. As it rises, conventional generators must back down to maintain supply-demand balance. As it falls, dispatchable resources must ramp up quickly to meet net demand. This pattern is predictable, but the size of the swing is increasing as more solar is added.
Forecast uncertainty is less predictable. Solar output does not always match what was scheduled because it is highly sensitive to changing weather conditions. Cloud cover, dust, humidity and localised weather events can cause actual generation to deviate from the day-ahead plan, sometimes by several gigawatts. These deviations create real-time balancing errors that the system must correct quickly.
This means solar integration is no longer only about adding capacity. The grid must also be able to operate reliably around solar’s variability and forecast uncertainty. That requires flexible generation, reserves, storage, and stronger forecasting systems that can manage ramps, absorb surplus generation, minimise deviations from forecast values and correct the supply-demand imbalances in real time.
Solar and wind’s share of India’s electricity generation has grown rapidly, from just over 2% in 2010 to around 14.4% in 2025, with solar driving almost all the recent acceleration, increasing from almost zero to 9.42%, while wind grew more gradually to 5%.
The growth was especially strong in the last year: solar and wind increased from 11% in 2024 to 14.5% in 2025, a rise of 3.39 percentage points. As a result, the share of other sources fell from 89% to 85.6%, showing a clear acceleration in VRE growth.
But annual averages tell only part of the story. They average across all hours of all days, including nights when solar contributes nothing to the generation mix. The operational challenge the system faces is not the average – it is what happens during the hours when solar is at or near its peak, and those hours are becoming more demanding every year.
The monthly average hourly VRE profile makes this visible. Comparing January–April 2025 with the same months in 2026, the curve shape is nearly identical: a steep morning ramp, a midday plateau, and a sharp evening drop. But the 2026 curve sits consistently higher at its peak.
The average midday VRE share (10:00–14:00) rose by 4.7 percentage points in January, 6.7 in February, 5.8 in March, and 4.9 in April – an average gain of around 5.5 percentage points across the four months, driven almost entirely by roughly 46 GW of solar capacity added in a single year.
The peak 1 pm average share reached 33.7% in January 2026 against 28.8% in 2025, and 37.2% in March 2026 against 30.9% in 2025. This was driven mainly by rapid solar capacity additions.
This reveals a system that operates in two distinct regimes. A midday/solar-dominated regime and a non-solar regime. Overnight and through winter months, VRE penetration is low and the grid operates much as it always has. But during midday hours on clear days, solar now dominates – and the grid must manage the transition between these two states, in both directions, every single day. As solar capacity continues to grow, the peak share will keep rising even if the annual average climbs more gradually.
As solar grows two operational consequences that scale directly with how much solar is on the system, and both are becoming more acute every year.
Solar follows a predictable daily arc. When it was small, the rest of the system barely noticed. Now that it is supplying an increasing share of demand at its daily peak, every other generator must move around it. Coal, which still provides the majority of India’s electricity, must back down by tens of gigawatts through the morning and ramp back up just as fast in the evening.
6 March 2026 shows what this looks like in practice. At midnight, coal supplied 87% of India’s electricity. By midday, solar and wind had taken 41% of the generation mix, pushing coal’s share down to 54%, a reduction of around 49 GW in six hours. Then, as solar output collapsed in the afternoon and evening demand picked up, coal had to climb back to 85%, a 51 GW recovery in just three hours. While the demand did not change significantly it was a different generation mix catering the demand.
Coal is no longer a stable baseload. It is being cycled up and down around the solar curve, every day, at increasing depth and speed. It was built for sustained high-output operation, not daily cycling through a deep midday trough. Coal is increasingly reaching close to its technical minimum and is sometimes required to operate below it, which is impossible. The margin will narrow further as solar capacity grows.
While the daily dispatch pattern looks smooth and predictable, the underlying reality is not. The smooth bell curve of average hourly generation, rising steadily through the morning, peaking at midday, falling away in the evening, is what the schedule assumes will happen if solar plants deliver exactly what they promised. On any individual day, the actual output deviates from that schedule, sometimes by several gigawatts, in either direction, at any point during the solar day. Cloud cover moves unpredictably. Dust events reduce output without warning. Localised weather creates pockets of over- and under-generation simultaneously across a region. The grid operator cannot wait for these deviations to resolve themselves.
Every imbalance between actual and scheduled generation must be corrected in real time, within 15-minute dispatch blocks.
Actual versus scheduled solar generation from ISTS-connected plants in the Northern Region across four consecutive days in March 2026 tells a different story. The two lines track each other broadly but diverge repeatedly and significantly. On some days it runs above schedule, creating surplus power that must be absorbed or backed down elsewhere. On other days it falls below schedule, requiring additional generation or reserves to fill the gap. In both cases, the system needs balancing reserves to stabilise operations. The direction of deviation can flip from one day to the next, and the magnitude also varies. And because this data covers only one region’s ISTS-connected plants, where deviations partially offset each other through aggregation, the uncertainty at the individual plant level and across all regions combined is higher still. At the national level, some of these regional deviations may partially cancel out, as overgeneration in one part of the country coincides with under-generation in another.
On 6 March 2026, those deviations were happening constantly across the country. Coal had already backed down 49 GW to accommodate the solar that was scheduled. The headroom available to absorb further unplanned solar surplus, or to cover an unexpected shortfall, had shrunk dramatically (approaching zero or negative). The system had used most of its flexibility just to follow the predictable part of the solar curve. What remained for the unpredictable part was far smaller.
This is why scale matters for uncertainty as much as for variability. More solar means larger absolute deviations from schedule, at the exact moments when the thermal fleet has the least room to respond. At India’s current solar fleet size, a 5% forecast error translates to roughly 4,000 MW of unplanned deviation. At the scale India is heading towards, the same percentage error becomes 10,000 MW by 2030. The reserve requirement grows with every panel installed and must be met from a system that is simultaneously being asked to cycle harder and faster just to manage the variability.
Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) is a pre-dispatch mechanism that schedules thermal plants in advance. One of its roles is to ensure that committed generators are positioned above their minimum generation levels where possible, leaving room to provide reserves when needed.
Every deviation between actual and scheduled solar generation creates an imbalance that must be corrected in real time, not on average across the day, but in every 15-minute block. How fast the response needs to be depends on how quickly the deviation develops. India manages this through three reserve layers, each operating at a different timescale.
Primary response is automatic and instantaneous. When frequency deviates from 50 Hz, governor-equipped generators adjust output within seconds, without instruction. This buys time, but it does not fully correct the imbalance.
Secondary response operates through Automatic Generation Control (AGC), known in India as Secondary Reserve Ancillary Service (SRAS). AGC sends signals every four seconds to designated generators, correcting imbalances at the seconds-to-minutes timescale. Under the Indian Electricity Grid Code (IEGC) 2023, SRAS providers must begin responding within 30 seconds, reach full obligated capacity within 15 minutes, and sustain the response for up to 30 minutes.
Tertiary response operates through Tertiary Reserve Ancillary Service (TRAS). It is used when imbalances persist beyond the secondary response window or when larger schedule corrections are needed. TRAS provides additional reserves at the minutes-to-hours timescale, helping restore secondary reserves and maintain system balance over longer periods.
But as variable renewable energy (VRE) grows, this model is coming under stress. High solar output during the day pushes coal plants toward their technical minimum – the floor below which stable operation cannot be maintained. Once coal reaches close to this floor, it has little room to reduce output further, eroding the downward reserves. And to get coal up to that floor in the first place, solar must sometimes be curtailed which results in wasting clean energy to preserve the conditions needed for balancing.
Coal’s technical minimum is now a constraint on renewable integration.
Coal is still India’s power system’s main shock absorber. Most balancing today relies on coal units that are already online. When the system needs more power in real time, coal units ramp up. When the system has too much power in real time, coal units ramp down. Coal is, in effect, the main shock absorber for managing swings in net demand.
The source-wise breakdown of regulation services shows this clearly. Across the months analysed, coal provided the majority of both upward and downward regulation. These are real-time dispatch instructions that raise or cut a plant’s output within minutes to hold grid frequency at 50 Hz. In March 2026, coal provided 1,351 MU of regulation up out of a total 1,364 MU, and 1,984 MU of regulation down out of a total 2,395 MU. This means coal accounted for almost all regulation up and more than four-fifths of regulation down in that month.
But this flexibility, particularly in terms of absorbing surplus, has a physical limit. Coal can only ramp down to its technical minimum. During high solar and wind periods, coal is backed down to create space for VRE generation. This helps the system absorb renewables, but it also reduces the downward headroom available from coal. Once coal is close to its technical minimum, it cannot provide much more downward reserve.
This is why renewable curtailment under TRAS down-regulation is increasingly used. Solar and wind provided 27% (~346 MU) of regulation in May 2026 and 37% (816 MU) in April 2026. In March of 2025, renewable curtailment for TRAS down-regulation was negligible, close to zero. Renewable downregulation is not the same as coal providing flexibility. When coal is backed down, it is a controllable generator reducing output. When renewables are backed down, it usually means available solar or wind generation is being curtailed.
Coal can help balance the grid only as long as it has room to move. 21 March 2026 was one such day when that room ran out.
Through the morning into early afternoon, solar and wind displaced a significant share of coal output. Scheduled coal fell from around 148 GW at midnight to 107 GW by early afternoon – its lowest point of the day. Under the Indian grid Code, coal units cannot (or are not required to) run below 55% of rated capacity. When the aggregate planned coal output fell below that collective floor, the day-ahead schedule was in violation of that constraint.
When coal is lifted back to its floor, load-generation balance requires an equal and opposite reduction elsewhere. The Grid Code directs this reduction first at the most expensive thermal generators. But on 21 March, most thermal units were already near their own operating floors. There was no thermal headroom left for the offsetting reduction. It fell on solar and wind instead. Solar and wind was curtailed (as shown in the darker shades of green) to first bring the coal fleet to its technical minimum and to provide the necessary balancing under TRAS down.
Ember estimates suggest that at 13:30 more than 7 GW was curtailed purely to accommodate coal’s return to above its minimum level. This is the first and most direct sense in which coal’s rigidity is paid for by renewable curtailment: every gigawatt used to hold coal at its floor is a gigawatt taken from solar and wind.
Once coal is at its floor, the problem deepens. A generator sitting at its technical minimum cannot be dispatched downward. It has no further flexibility to offer. If the system still has more generation than demand – because solar output continues to be high – the surplus cannot come from coal. It has to come from somewhere else.
The Grid Code addresses this through Tertiary Reserve Ancillary Services (TRAS): when downward regulation is needed and thermal cannot provide it, TRAS Down is dispatched to whatever source has headroom. On 21 March that source was VRE. Ember estimates suggest that at 12:15 close to 9 GW of TRAS Down was dispatched through solar and wind curtailment.
The constraint shown on 21 March 2026 is not an isolated event. Across FY 2025–26, coal minimum technical load constraints created around 2.1 TWh of renewable curtailment risk in FY 2025–26 – equivalent to 1.3% of total renewable generation and roughly INR 629 crore of foregone electricity.
This is curtailment required purely to keep coal plants at their minimum technical load, before the system even considers reserve requirements or grid constraints, renewable generation must be cut simply to make space for coal to remain physically operable.
This curtailment is entirely absent outside the solar window. It appears only during peak solar hours, typically between 9:00 and 15:30. The daily average looks small, but that masks what is happening within those hours. At the worst half-hours, 5–6% of total solar and wind generation in that interval was being displaced – not because of grid congestion or because there was no demand, but because coal could not generate any lower.
October and November 2025 saw the most severe curtailment of the year: peaking at around 5% of solar and wind generation in October and exceeding 6% in November at the 13:00–13:30 slot. In absolute terms, the headroom deficit reached 2.8 GW in October and 3.2 GW in November.
India added around 24 GW of solar capacity between October 2025 and April 2026, reaching approximately 154 GW. The effect is already visible. By April 2026, peak hour curtailment had returned to 4% of solar and wind generation and the headroom deficit had reached 3.2 GW – comparable to November 2025, despite April being outside the most constrained seasonal window. The same structural problem is producing similar curtailment numbers with a solar fleet that is now considerably larger. The coming post-monsoon period could be worse
When October–November 2026 arrives, the solar fleet will be larger still. If battery storage does not come online at scale before then to absorb the midday surplus, the curtailment share in those hours will exceed what was seen in 2025. The structural condition has not changed, only the size of the solar generation pressing against coal’s operating floor has grown.
Renewable energy curtailment has escalated sharply over the past year. TRAS-Down instructions to curtail solar and wind added to over 3,600 GWh by early June 2026, up from near zero in mid-2025. Other curtailment, covering direct backing down of wind and solar generation, added a further 900 GWh over the same period.
Renewable energy curtailment due to TRAS-Down volumes accelerated most sharply between September and November 2025, when cumulative volumes roughly quadrupled from around 600 GWh to over 2,100 GWh in under three months. Growth has been particularly sharp since March 2026, with volumes adding over 1,400 GWh in just two months. The scale on individual days is already striking. On 1 and 3 May 2026, TRAS-Down volumes exceeded 120 GWh each.
Storage could have prevented most of the curtailment seen in the most constrained months of FY 2025–26.
In October and November 2025, around 9–10 GWh of storage charging would have been needed each day during the midday solar window to avoid curtailment caused by coal minimum generation limits. With this storage in place, surplus renewable generation would have charged batteries instead of being curtailed. Coal plants could have continued operating above their minimum technical levels, avoiding a conflict between rising solar generation and the limited flexibility of the coal fleet.
This estimate is based on the solar fleet available at the time. Since then, India has continued to add solar capacity, increasing the scale of midday surplus generation. As solar grows, the amount of energy that must either be shifted, curtailed or balanced by greater system flexibility will also increase.
Even so, around 10 GWh of storage remains the right order of magnitude. Storage does not need to eliminate every unit of curtailment to deliver system value. Some residual curtailment is acceptable, and the objective is not to cover every constrained interval perfectly. The key role of storage is to absorb the largest and most frequent midday surplus periods, reducing curtailment while allowing coal plants to remain within their technical operating limits.
This makes BESS essential for the next phase of RE growth – not only as a tool for shifting solar from afternoon to evening, but as the flexibility resource that allows the system to absorb more renewable generation without forcing coal below its operating floor. The technology can be deployed quickly. The pipeline exists. The bottleneck is connectivity: the rules being written now will decide whether that pipeline becomes useful operational storage or gets constrained by a framework designed for generation evacuation rather than flexible grid operation.
India’s power system has reached the point where additional renewable generation cannot be integrated through coal flexibility alone. Solar generation is being increased during the same hours when coal is being pushed toward its technical minimum – the floor below which stable plant operation is no longer possible. Once coal reaches that floor, the system needs another source of downward flexibility.
Today, that missing flexibility is provided by curtailing renewable generation. This keeps the grid balanced but wastes clean electricity. Coal minimum technical load constraints created around 2.1 TWh of renewable curtailment risk in FY 2025-26 – equivalent to 1.3% of total renewable generation and roughly ₹629 crore of foregone electricity. By April 2026, coal was at its technical floor in more than half of all midday dispatch intervals. The pressure will increase through the monsoon months, when peak wind and peak solar arrive simultaneously, pushing residual demand lower than the thermal fleet can follow.
Battery storage addresses this constraint in two distinct ways.
BESS creates demand during the surplus window. By charging during midday hours, storage absorbs generation that would otherwise be curtailed. This allows more renewable output to be used by the system and, in effect, allows coal to reach its technical minimum with less VRE being spilled to get there.
BESS provides downward reserves once coal has hit its floor. Once coal can no longer back down, any further surplus must be handled by something else. Without storage, that role falls to VRE curtailment. With storage, the battery absorbs at least part of that surplus and reduces the need to spill clean generation.
Together, these two functions make storage not as a nice-to-have addition but as the resource that determines how much further renewable capacity the system can absorb.
Battery storage can be built far faster than any other form of power sector infrastructure. A site-ready project can move from financial close to commissioning in five to seven months. The technology is modular and containerised, with no long civil construction timelines. This speed matters because the flexibility problem is already here. The grid needs assets that can be deployed within the same timeframe in which curtailment and reserve shortfalls are worsening.
India has already demonstrated that large-scale BESS can be executed rapidly:
Kilokari, Delhi (20 MW / 40 MWh): India’s first regulated utility-scale standalone BESS, commissioned April 2025 by BRPL and tested under AGC closed-loop operation within weeks – demonstrating that batteries can participate immediately in the balancing architecture India is building around ancillary services.
Khavda, Gujarat (3.37 GWh): Adani Green Energy commissioned the world’s largest single-location battery storage project outside China in May 2026, completing 3.37 GWh within 10 months of construction commencing on-site. The project is co-located with AGEL’s 30 GW renewable energy park at Khavda, of which 9.9 GW is already operational. AGEL plans to add a further 10 GWh in FY27 alone, targeting 50 GWh over five years.
The broader pipeline confirms that physical deployment capability is not the constraint. India has a significant BESS under construction and under tendering. Developers are present, supply chains are forming, and execution capability exists. The issue is whether the regulatory and connectivity framework will allow these projects to operate in the way the grid needs.
The issue sits in the General Network Access (GNA) framework. GNA governs how generators, storage projects and other users obtain access to the inter-state transmission system.
The Third Amendment created a distinction between solar-hour and non-solar-hour access, allowing existing solar connectivity holders to use under-utilised transmission capacity during non-solar hours. This is where much of the current opportunity to add BESS exists. Under the Right of First Refusal mechanism, BESS projects seeking non-solar-hour access face two conditions.
The first is a minimum two-hour storage duration. This is reasonable because short-duration batteries provide limited value for the kind of surplus absorption and evening discharge the system needs, while consuming grid connectivity.
The second condition is more consequential. BESS projects must install commensurate renewable generation capacity for charging. Until that capacity is commissioned, grid charging is permitted only on an interim basis and within available margins. In practice, long-term grid charging is treated as a temporary concession rather than a normal operating mode for storage.
The concern is that a solar connectivity slot should not become a general-purpose route for drawing power from the grid. This concern is relevant mainly during non-solar hours, when a BESS could draw power through a line originally planned for solar evacuation.
But the current condition applies beyond that narrow risk. During solar hours, BESS charging is a different operation entirely. A battery charging during surplus solar periods absorbs generation that would otherwise flow into the grid, reducing net export rather than increasing it. In those hours, grid charging helps the system by reducing curtailment and providing downward flexibility.
The rule therefore treats two different operations as equivalent: a battery absorbing surplus generation at noon, and a battery drawing power through a constrained connection at night. The first helps the grid; the second may need limits. The current restriction is broader than the risk it is trying to manage.
A battery tied to one co-located plant charges when that plant generates, not when the grid has its largest surplus or when prices are lowest. Surplus renewable generation is not always located behind the same connection. The grid may be long on wind in one region and long on solar in another. A battery free to charge from the grid can respond to system-wide surplus. A battery restricted to co-located generation cannot.
The restriction also weakens the price signal needed to scale storage. India’s Day Ahead Market already shows prices falling to around ₹0.1/kWh during surplus solar hours and rising to ₹10–20/kWh during evening peaks. That spread tells storage where and when it is valuable. A battery that can charge when power is nearly free and discharge when power is scarce can earn a commercial return while solving a real grid problem. This is the route through which merchant investment can enter the sector at scale. Viability Gap Funding can seed early projects, but it cannot finance the full storage buildout India needs.
The condition also adds delay at the moment speed matters most. Requiring developers to identify land, negotiate access and commission additional renewable generation before BESS can operate with full grid access adds months to projects. The flexibility gap is already widening. Each month of added process is a month without the storage the grid needs.
The result is an inefficient use of BESS. Instead of acting as a system-wide flexibility asset, the battery becomes tied to the output profile of one plant. It is used as a project accessory rather than as market infrastructure. That limits its ability to absorb surplus, provide downward reserves, respond to price signals, and support the next phase of RE growth.
The underlying transmission concern should be addressed, but with a targeted rule. Non-solar hour drawal through constrained connectivity slots can be limited where it creates genuine network risk. But grid charging during solar surplus hours should be permitted by default.
This would align the rule with the actual system needs. When there is surplus renewable generation, BESS should be allowed to charge from the grid and absorb electricity that would otherwise be curtailed. When transmission headroom is genuinely constrained during non-solar hours, drawal limits can be applied.
The current framework has the default the wrong way around. It restricts the very operation that would help the system most, while treating grid charging as a temporary concession. A better framework would recognise grid charging during surplus periods as a normal and valuable operating mode for storage.
The principle is straightforward: restrict risky drawal where it creates network problems, but allow storage to charge when it reduces curtailment, lowers system stress, and improves flexibility. That is how BESS can support RE growth without being trapped inside a connectivity framework designed mainly for generation evacuation.
TRAS-Down dispatch data was sourced from the monthly Ancillary Services Implementation Reports published by Grid Controller of India Limited (GRID-INDIA). These reports cover the TRAS/SRAS/SCUC mechanism and are published by Grid India.
Two types of renewable curtailment are estimated in this analysis.
Plant-level TRAS-Down dispatch volumes were extracted from the payment details tables in each monthly report. Renewable plants were identified based on their zero -compensation charge treatment under CERC directions, and monthly totals were aggregated to derive the share of TRAS-Down dispatch attributable to renewable curtailment.
This form of curtailment is not directly observable from the TRAS reports. It was estimated using the Power Supply Position (PSP) data. The Minimum Technical Limit (MTL) was estimated by examining the maximum generation of the thermal fleet in a given day. Where actual generation in a given period falls below the MTL, the fleet is assumed to be operating at or near its technical minimum. The shortfall between actual generation and the MTL represents the extent to which the fleet would need to increase its generation and is treated as the implied space created for renewable generation.
Ember: Duttatreya Das, Debabrata Das, Shiyao Zhang, Matt Ewen
We thank our external reviewer Shiv Vembadi.
An aerial perspective of a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) project in Rajnandgaon, Chhattisgarh, commissioned by the Solar Energy Corporation of India Limited (SECI).
Credit: Press Information Bureau, Government of India
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