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PJM and ERCOT have no spare capacity for demand growth beyond 2027, the consulting firm said. Demand response and GETs can help meet an expected 39% jump in U.S. electric use by 2035, it suggests.
The U.S. has about 26 GW of excess generating capacity for an additional cushion above required planning reserves.
However, power supply and demand conditions vary by regions and within regions, ICF analysts said.
For example, the consulting firm expects demand in the PJM Interconnection will jump 43% from 2026 levels by 2035, but demand will only grow 14% in the same period in the New York Independent System Operator’s footprint.
“In high-growth regions, there is already little or no extra capacity available to absorb new demand,” ICF analysts said. “As a result, some new large-load interconnections are being delayed until enough infrastructure can come online to serve them reliably.”
The PJM Interconnection and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas have no spare capacity to support demand growth beyond next year, according to the report. The Southeast and New York regions could face similar limits in a few years, ICF analysts said.
Electric generation is being built to meet the demand growth, but “timing and scale are critical,” ICF analysts said.
The analysts expect 68 GW of generation will come online this year, 76 GW in 2027 and about 100 GW annually in the following three years.
By 2030, ICF expects the capacity additions will include:
Depending on market and operating conditions, 1 GW of solar may produce 1 TWh to 3 TWh a year, ICF noted, while 1 GW of combined-cycle gas may produce 6 TWh to 8 TWh annually.
Existing resources can affect the near-term ability to serve emerging loads, according to the report.
“In some regions, uprates, delayed retirements, life extensions, co-located resources, or [behind-the-meter] generation may help manage timing risk while new infrastructure is developed,” the ICF analysts said. “These options will not eliminate the need for new generation, transmission, and distribution investment, but they can influence where and how quickly new load can be served.”
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Each of the 13 states in PJM, and the District of Columbia, have “fundamentally different regulatory structures, resource portfolios and politics,” FERC Chairman Laura Swett said. FERC will host a conference in July to identify potential reforms to PJM’s governance structure.
Certain light-duty vehicles have the potential to earn around $3,000 per summer, and school buses $12,000, by enrolling in the state’s virtual power plant, a state program manager said.
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Certain light-duty vehicles have the potential to earn around $3,000 per summer, and school buses $12,000, by enrolling in the state’s virtual power plant, a state program manager said.
The guidelines call for utilities to charge large-load customers for upgrades that “would not have been needed ‘but for’ the interconnection” of that customer, “irrespective of whether other customers will benefit” from the infrastructure.
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