Free-On-Board China TOPCon cells declined for a fourth consecutive week pressured by high inventories, weaker upstream wafer prices and manufacturers’ push to increase sales amid soft end-user demand.
According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on June 23, FOB China TOPCon M10 cell prices fell 2.44% to $0.0440/W. FOB China 210R cell prices averaged $0.0450/W, down 2.17%.
Trade sources said inventory pressure in the cell segment has intensified in recent weeks, with upstream production expected to increase in the second half of 2026 even as module demand remained weak.
Polysilicon production is expected to increase during China’s wet season, when lower hydropower costs typically support higher operating rates. Without a meaningful recovery in module demand, market sources said the additional supply could further increase inventories across the wafer and cell segments.

Global solar supply chains are being reshaped by trade barriers, industrial policy, regional manufacturing strategies, and volatility in key raw materials. This pv magazine Webinar+ will provide a detailed market analysis of how geopolitical developments are creating regional pricing disparities across the photovoltaic value chain, from polysilicon to modules and critical materials such as soda ash, EVA, and POE.
Wafer production is expected to rise by around 10% month on month in June, from approximately 50 GW in May, potentially intensifying inventory pressure, according to industry sources.
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, or CNMIA, said two major wafer producers are operating at 50-52%, integrated producers at 54-60%, and other producers at 54-70%. Despite lower polysilicon and wafer prices, end-user demand has yet to improve, while cautious downstream buyers have little incentive to restock, CNMIA added.
Lower cell prices have also tracked declining production costs, following recent weakness in silver paste, polysilicon and wafer prices, market sources told OPIS. Some market participants said improving geopolitical conditions in the Middle East have eased pressure on precious metal prices, including silver, after silver hit a record high in January 2026. Silver prices have fallen by nearly 15% over the past month and close to 10% over the past six months, though they remain more than 80% higher year on year.
A cell manufacturer source said silver prices are expected to stabilize or edge lower if geopolitical sentiment continues to improve, helping reduce cell production costs. The source added that manufacturers had struggled to pass on higher silver costs when prices were elevated because buyers were unwilling to accept corresponding increases in cell prices.
Downstream module pricing signals remained mixed. FOB China TOPCon modules weakened for a fourth consecutive week amid softer spot indications, as thin demand kept buyers on the sidelines while they waited for clearer direction on module prices and container freight rates.
However, a Chinese tier-1 manufacturer said Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) European module prices appeared to be firming, partly because higher freight rates and the drawdown of rebate-eligible inventory were raising replacement costs.
China removed export tax rebates for solar PV products from April 1. Export buyers had built substantial inventories since the second half of 2025 even before the policy was formally announced.
Some market sources said these stockpiles could continue to suppress purchasing activity in the second half of 2026. As rebate-eligible inventory in destination warehouses is gradually drawn, industry sources said that buyers are expected to feel the impact of higher replacement costs more directly.
Higher logistics costs are adding another layer of price support. Market analysts said the high container freight rates have also raised import costs, potentially weighing on demand or prompting buyers to delay procurement. Although ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations have improved market sentiment and could ease shipping disruptions in the Middle East, sources said uncertainty over the geopolitical situation and its impact on container shipping remains.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: [email protected].
Comments
Please login to comment
The June issue of pv magazine Global is out now!
Available in print and digital – get your copy today!
Thursday, July 9, 2026
11:00 am – 12:30 pm CEST, Berlin, Paris, Madrid
pv magazine USA hosts its third multi-day virtual event on advancing U.S. solar and energy storage markets, covering financing, supply chains, and distributed energy’s role in grid resilience.
Entries open in seven categories: Modules, Inverters, BoS, BESS, Manufacturing, Sustainability, Projects.
April 01 – August 31, 2026
A two-day conference in Austin, Texas, bringing together leaders in US solar manufacturing, equipment specification, and factory execution.
Saudi Arabia is accelerating its clean energy transition—join the SunRise Arabia Clean Energy Conference 2026 in Riyadh to explore how solar PV and energy storage are powering its digital economy.
Showcase your brand across all our platforms: from 13 websites in 7 languages to our magazines, daily newsletters, industry events and more. Reach your audience the right way!

You have no items in your basket.

source