The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), OPIS’ benchmark assessment for TOPCon modules FOB China, held steady at $0.113/W this week, with spot price indications ranging between $0.110/W and $0.117/W, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on June 30.
However, sentiment for forward deliveries weakened, with prices for Q4 2026 and 2027 cargoes edging lower as expectations for second-half demand softened and upstream cell and wafer prices continued to decline. FOB China forward prices for Q4 2026 cargoes fell 0.88% week on week to $0.113/W, while Q1-Q3 2027 cargoes declined by 0.87% to $0.114/W.
Several manufacturers told OPIS that many overseas buyers had already secured a significant portion of their procurement requirements ahead of China’s cancellation of export tax rebates for solar PV products on April 1, limiting near-term purchasing interest.
A source at a top-10 Chinese module manufacturer said visibility for new distributed solar orders in the second half of the year remains limited and demand is expected to weaken.
The source added that supply tightness for premium high-efficiency products is also likely to ease in the coming months. While certain back-contact (BC) modules experienced temporary shortages in Europe during the first half of the year, additional supply is expected to enter the market in the second half, placing downward pressure on prices. OPIS heard indicative offers for high-efficiency TOPCon and BC modules at around mid-to-high $0.110/W FOB China.
Against this backdrop, major Chinese manufacturers continue to accelerate their transition toward BC technology. Several tier-one suppliers are evaluating BC production alongside their existing TOPCon platforms, although intellectual property considerations remain an important factor in commercialization strategies.
Reflecting this trend, a top- 10 manufacturer recently announced plans to convert one of its manufacturing bases to BC technology by upgrading 6.3 GW of TOPCon cell capacity, 1 GW of PERC cell capacity and 3.5 GW of module capacity without adding new production capacity. The project is scheduled for completion by the end of 2027.
Feedback gathered by OPIS from participants at Intersolar Europe 2026 in Munich broadly reinforced these market expectations from the European market perspective.
Conference participants said European module inventories have normalized significantly following two years of oversupply. Distributors are no longer carrying six to twelve months of inventory, while procurement strategies have shifted from delaying purchases in anticipation of lower prices to sourcing modules based on actual project requirements. The change in purchasing behavior points to a weaker export demand outlook for China modules.
OPIS also observed that BC technology continues to gain wider acceptance in the European market, supported by its higher conversion efficiency, lower silver consumption and only a modest price premium over TOPCon products. An EU-based manufacturer told OPIS that Europe’s fragmented market structure continues to foster technological innovation, with more module innovations showcased at Intersolar.
Beyond market fundamentals, the overarching message at this year’s Intersolar was that the solar industry is entering a new phase in which storage, flexibility and market integration are becoming more important than simply adding PV capacity. Although global solar demand is expected to soften in 2026, presenters at Intersolar identified battery energy storage systems (BESS), hybrid PV projects and grid flexibility as the sector’s primary growth drivers.
According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on June 30, imported TOPCon modules of 600 W and above were assessed at €0.108/W DDP Europe, while EXW Europe prices for TOPCon modules of 450 W and below held unchanged at €0.111/W.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
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