Research presented at SolarExpert projects more than 190 GW of solar PV, over 120 GW of new wind capacity and a 90% reduction in gas demand by mid-century.
A 100% renewable electricity system in Italy by 2050 is technically achievable and represents the most economically advantageous pathway among the scenarios analyzed, according to a new study presented at SolarExpert, an event organized by ITALIA SOLARE and the Politecnico di Milano.
The study, supported by Coordinamento FREE, ITALIA SOLARE, the National Confederation of Crafts and Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (CNA) and ECCO, was developed by researchers from the Politecnico di Milano and LEAP. It evaluates Italy’s energy transition using two different simulation models across four time horizons—2030, 2035, 2040 and 2050—to assess the technical and economic feasibility of different decarbonization pathways.
According to the researchers, the key challenge is not only achieving the 2050 objective but ensuring that the transition follows a realistic and coherent pathway.
For that reason, the study examines intermediate milestones in 2030, 2035 and 2040 to verify that today’s investment decisions remain consistent with long-term goals and do not rely on technologies that are either immature or unlikely to be deployed at scale within the required timeframe.
The analysis projects that Italy’s electricity demand will more than double, increasing from around 300 TWh today to more than 600 TWh by 2050, driven by the electrification of transport, heating, industry and hydrogen production.
The study concludes that achieving a fully renewable electricity system will require a profound transformation of Italy’s power sector.
Its modelling indicates that, by 2050, Italy would need:
Under this scenario, gas demand would fall by approximately 90% compared with current levels. A limited amount of dispatchable generation would remain available to support system reliability, supplied by biomethane and synthetic methane produced from hydrogen.
The study identifies the transport sector as the main remaining obstacle to achieving full decarbonization of the country’s energy system.
The researchers also argue that public debate should focus less on comparing individual technologies and more on evaluating the ability of the overall energy system to deliver security of supply, economic sustainability and a smooth transition.
According to the simulations, under the 100% renewable scenario:
These results suggest that an appropriate combination of renewable generation, energy storage and limited dispatchable capacity can maintain the balance and reliability of the electricity system.
“The scenarios presented, both using a simplified tool and more comprehensive models, provide a clear picture: the 100% renewable scenario, which includes only a limited contribution from dispatchable generation supplied by biological and synthetic gases (less than 35 TWh), is the most cost-effective option for the energy system,” said Maurizio Delfanti, Coordinator of ITALIA SOLARE’s Scientific and Technical Committee.
Delfanti added that the research will be expanded in the coming months with an assessment of the economic and social impacts of the transition, supported by additional experts from the committee.
Paolo Rocco Viscontini, President of ITALIA SOLARE, said the energy transition requires a debate based on verified data rather than ideological positions.
He said the study is intended to provide policymakers and industry stakeholders with an independent tool to evaluate different energy pathways based on their technical feasibility, system costs and consistency with long-term transition objectives.
Viscontini stressed that the energy decisions Italy makes over the coming years will shape the country’s energy system for decades and should therefore be supported by the best available scientific evidence.
During SolarExpert, ITALIA SOLARE also presented the first editions of its Scientific and Technical Committee Briefs, covering the Spain blackout and the costs and benefits of renewable energy on electricity bills.
The event also brought together representatives from public institutions, academia and industry to discuss existing tools for lowering electricity costs through the expansion of renewable energy and the wider use of long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs).
Among the examples presented was the PPA recently signed by the Politecnico di Milano, which is expected to generate annual savings of approximately €500,000, equivalent to more than 15% of the university’s annual expenditure on electricity supply.
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