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According to a report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), India’s rapid solar expansion is set to create a significant end-of-life waste challenge over the coming decades.
The country’s annual solar PV waste is projected to surpass 1 million tonnes (Mt) by 2043 and exceed 2.6 Mt by 2050. Between 2035 and 2050, India is expected to handle an average of 1.2 Mt of end-of-life solar panels every year, requiring around 60 medium-sized solar PV waste treatment facilities to be operational during this period. For readers wondering why so many, the answer is simple. The economics of module recycling dictate that sourcing happen close by to the recycling centre, otherwise, logistics costs can become an unbearable burden on project economics.  
The pace of India’s solar PV waste generation is also expected to outstrip several major markets during the 2040s. While India’s annual end-of-life solar PV waste is estimated to be only one-third of Japan’s level in 2030, the trend is expected to reverse rapidly. By 2040, India’s annual solar panel waste is projected to be 1.3 times higher than Japan’s, and by 2050, it is expected to exceed Japan’s waste stream by 3.6 times.
By 2050, solar PV waste is projected to account for more than 21% of the world’s electronic waste (e-waste), compared with less than 1% today. The findings underscore the urgent need to invest in infrastructure for the collection, transportation, treatment, and recycling of end-of-life solar panels.
The projected surge in solar waste comes alongside India’s rapid deployment of solar power. The country’s installed solar capacity reached 135 GW by the end of 2025, marking a 3.4-fold increase from 2020 levels. With 37 GW of solar capacity added in 2025 alone and an average annual addition of 19 GW between 2020 and 2025, the growing volume of end-of-life solar panels is becoming an emerging challenge alongside India’s clean energy transition.
Under IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, India is expected to generate more than half a million tonnes of cumulative end-of-life solar PV panels by 2035. The cumulative waste is projected to rise sharply, crossing 1 Mt by 2037 and surpassing 2.3 Mt by 2040.
By 2050, India is expected to become the fourth-largest generator of end-of-life solar PV panels globally, after China, the European Union, and the United States. Notably, around 85% of India’s cumulative solar PV waste by 2050 is expected to be generated between 2041 and 2050, highlighting how rapidly the waste stream will accelerate during that decade. Meanwhile, the country’s annual end-of-life solar PV waste is projected to reach half a million tonnes by 2039.
The findings come as solar PV deployment continues to accelerate worldwide. By the end of 2025, solar PV accounted for 46% of global installed renewable energy capacity and 74% of all new renewable energy additions, according to IRENA.
While this rapid deployment is central to the global energy transition, it is also creating a growing waste management challenge. More than 90% of the world’s installed solar PV capacity has been deployed over the past decade, meaning most systems still have around 20 years of operational life remaining. However, as these assets begin reaching the end of their lifespan, the volume of discarded solar panels is expected to increase sharply.
The world’s largest solar markets include China, the European Union, India, Japan, and the United States. Under IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, global installed solar PV capacity is projected to grow from 2,383 GW in 2025 to more than 5 TW by 2030 and over 18 TW by 2050, supplying nearly half of the renewable energy capacity required by mid-century.
As deployment accelerates, so will the volume of end-of-life panels. IRENA projects the global cumulative weight of end-of-life solar PV panels to exceed 200 Mt by 2050, while annual solar PV waste is expected to surpass 25 Mt. Several leading solar markets—including China, the European Union, India, and the United States—are expected to generate more than one million tonnes of solar PV waste annually by 2043.
According to IRENA, global installed off-grid solar PV capacity reached approximately 4.1 GW by the end of 2024, with around half of these systems used for agriculture and mini-grids.
The total weight of solar panels deployed in off-grid solar lights and solar home systems exceeded 22,700 tonnes in 2024, excluding attached electrical equipment and cables. Around 77% of these panels are deployed in Africa, while another 15% are located in developing Asia.
India accounts for around 90% of all agricultural solar pumps deployed globally, largely supported by programmes such as PM-KUSUM, while Indonesia hosts around two-thirds of the world’s solar mini-grids, many of which support rural livelihoods.
Under the 1.5°C Scenario, IRENA projects the global cumulative weight of end-of-life solar PV panels to increase 16-fold between 2035 and 2050. China is expected to contribute the largest share (29%) of cumulative global solar PV waste, followed by the European Union (12%), the United States (11%), and India (9%). Together, these markets are projected to account for more than 60% of global cumulative end-of-life solar PV waste by mid-century.
The report also notes that solar mini-grids account for more than 52,000 tonnes of installed PV panels globally, with 64% deployed in Indonesia. Meanwhile, solar pumps account for over 92,000 tonnes of PV panels worldwide, with 92% of these installed in India.
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