The U.S. solar market continues to navigate complex regulatory adjustments and shifting trade landscapes midway through 2026. Following months of policy uncertainty, pricing for domestic solar module assembly has settled at a median of $0.30 per watt, holding flat through May, June, and early July, according to newly released data from procurement platform Anza.
The current baseline of $0.30/W reflects a minor rebound from $0.295/W in April, down from $0.31/W recorded in the first quarter of the year. Pricing across the 55 U.S.-assembled modules tracked by Anza spans an interquartile range (P25 to P75) of $0.280 to $0.325 per watt, reflecting varying risk profiles, cell sourcing locations, and tax credit eligibility features.
FEOC rules spark structural divestments
Tightened Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) rules under the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) act have triggered a wave of corporate restructurings across U.S. module manufacturing.
Under current Treasury rules, any manufacturing facility where a designated FEOC holds more than 25% equity, where multiple FEOCs collectively hold over 40% equity, or where FEOCs hold over 15% of outstanding debt risks classification as a Prohibited Foreign Entity (PFE). Projects relying on modules manufactured by a PFE face losing access to Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Investment Tax Credits (ITC).
To preserve project eligibility for domestic buyers, major Chinese-headquartered manufacturers have undertaken structural asset sales:
Industry observers note that while direct legal ownership has changed, significant portions of the underlying equipment, ingot, and wafer supply chains remain tied to overseas parent companies, leaving long-term regulatory interpretations open.
New AD/CVD petition targets South Korea
Trade uncertainty expanded beyond Southeast Asia on June 18, 2026, when the American Manufacturers for Energy Resilience (AMER) coalition filed an Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duty (AD/CVD) circumvention petition targeting solar imports from South Korea. The coalition—comprising Jeffersonville PV Cells Corp. (Canadian Solar), SEG Manufacturing, and Heliene USA—alleges that Chinese-origin processing in South Korea is minor and insufficient to alter the country of origin.
The petition primarily targets operations tied to Hanwha Q Cells, alongside HD Hyundai and Shinsung E&G. The U.S. Department of Commerce is scheduled to decide on initiating the investigation on July 9, 2026. Preliminary CVD determinations are expected in September 2026, with preliminary AD determinations following between November 2026 and January 2027, introducing potential retroactive tariff liabilities for developers using Korean-sourced cells.
Segment breakdown and sourcing dynamics
TOPCon technology accounts for the vast majority of U.S. assembly capacity, representing 49 of the 55 module products in Anza’s U.S. assembly index, with legacy mono PERC filling the remaining slots. Tier-1 status applies to 45 of the modules, while 32 meet current FEOC cell compliance criteria.
Cell origin for U.S. module assembly remains highly fragmented across ten countries, led by Kenya (12 modules) and the Philippines (11 modules). Polysilicon supply for these modules is primarily sourced from Malaysia (24 modules), followed by the United States (15 modules) and China (13 modules).
Looking ahead to 2027
With the threshold for non-PFE components required for domestic content eligibility set to rise to 45% for projects beginning construction in 2027, procurement teams face rising friction between hardware availability and tax credit compliance.
Anza advises developers to move beyond self-certifications by implementing independent third-party supply chain audits and legal opinions to verify FEOC status. Furthermore, buyers utilizing South Korean cell imports are urged to audit upstream wafer and ingot origins to hedge against potential AD/CVD duty retroactive enforcement.
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