The Aug. 12 solar eclipse produced sharply different levels of obscuration across the North Atlantic. The path of totality crossed through Greenland, Iceland and Spain, while much of Western Europe observed over 80% obscuration and levels remained below 20% across the north-eastern United States. Despite the contrast daily irradiance losses were similar in some European and North American locations, according to analysis using the Solcast API. This similarly did not hold true for cloud and electricity market impacts which varied more greatly.
While Solcast’s pre-event analysis showed the irradiance losses under clear-sky conditions, we can now see how cloud conditions on the day reduced the impact in some regions and what the final result was.
As noted in clear sky irradiance losses, peak obscuration alone did not determine the daily eclipse-related loss. Some eastern North American locations experienced less than 20% peak obscuration but still recorded daily irradiance losses greater than European locations where obscuration exceeded 80%. Montreal followed this pattern, with cloud cover reducing its observed daily eclipse-related loss below the clear-sky estimate, while the remaining loss was still comparable with several much higher-obscuration European locations. The eclipse occurred near midday in North America, when irradiance levels were relatively high, but just before sunset in western Europe when irradiance was already declining.
This drop was mitigated in some locations by cloud, which reduced the absolute irradiance lost to the eclipse, although did also ruin the view. Most western European locations showed little difference between observed-cloud and clear-sky losses, due to limited cloud cover during the eclipse period. Iceland, Ireland and the north of the UK were some of the few exceptions. Reykjavik was particularly notable. Although Iceland lay within the path of totality and Reykjavik would have lost more than 5% of its daily solar resource under clear skies, cloud cover reduced the additional eclipse-related loss to below 1%. The impact on power market outcomes was less straightforward. While the eclipse reduced available irradiance across multiple regions, price impacts depended on prevailing market conditions, including demand, available generation and operating margins.
Spain experienced some of the highest obscuration among the markets examined. During the 19:30 to 21:15 CEST eclipse period, OMIE day-ahead prices were approximately €175 ($202.1)/MWh to €250/MWh. Prices were approximately 10% higher than the typical summer weekday range for that time of day, but remained below the highest prices recorded during summer 2026.
France showed a much larger departure from its summer weekday distribution during the period that coincided with the eclipse. Prices moved above the weekday median and interquartile range, although the comparison does not isolate the eclipse as the cause.
New York provides the eastern North American comparison, with NYISO’s Hudson Valley zone used as a representative example of market conditions during the eclipse period.
In contrast to the European examples, day-ahead pricing in NYISO’s Hudson Valley zone remained within the typical range of summer weekday values throughout the eclipse period. Prices during the eclipse were broadly aligned with the summer weekday distribution.
Taken together, the results show that eclipse obscuration or irradiance lost was not areliable indicator of market impacts.
Solcast produces these figures by tracking clouds and aerosols at 1-2km resolution globally, using satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms. This data is used to drive irradiance models, enabling Solcast to calculate irradiance at high resolution, with typical bias of less than 2%, and also cloud-tracking forecasts. This data is used by more than 350 companies managing over 350 GW of solar assets globally.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
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