Technical advisory firm Intertek CEA has released its Q2 2026 PV Price Forecasting Report, projecting a strategic realignment across global solar manufacturing hubs. While Chinese suppliers push to restore profit margins following extended price compression, module pricing in the United States, India, and other major rest-of-world markets is expected to hold relatively flat through 2027.
Annual global solar installations are forecast to remain constrained in the low-600 GW range in 2026 and 2027, down from roughly 650 GW in 2025. This slowdown is primarily driven by the stagnating domestic Chinese market, reinforced by the phase-out of demand-side subsidies, tighter energy consumption rules, and new efficiency standards, said the report.
Chinese suppliers pivot to margin expansion
Domestic policy in China is accelerating domestic price increases, which are expected to spill over into international markets, said the report. Major Chinese manufacturers are guiding toward reduced export volumes while actively pursuing higher-margin international sales.
According to Intertek CEA’s regional cost modeling, integrated production costs globally show a massive spread. Fully integrated production costs for TOPCon modules in China remain the global floor at under $0.12/W. In Southeast Asia and India, regional manufacturing costs hover near $0.17/W for TOPCon technology.
Meanwhile, unsubsidized all-in U.S. manufacturing costs for TOPCon modules using U.S. cells exceed $0.37/W prior to incentives. However, factoring in Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credits brings net U.S. TOPCon production costs down to approximately $0.21/W.
The Section 45X subsidies effectively eliminate much of the historical cost penalty for domestic U.S. manufacturing, narrowing the net cost gap between U.S.-made modules and non-Chinese imports from Southeast Asia or India to just $0.01/W to $0.03/W.
Trade policy and policy mandates dictate regional pricing
U.S. module prices are projected to stay elevated as buyers await final clarity on the tariff structures emerging from the ongoing polysilicon Section 232 investigation. While operational cell capacity outside duty-subject nations remains tight, expanding non-duty ingot, wafer, and cell capacity throughout 2026 and 2027 is expected to alleviate acute procurement bottlenecks.
In India, pricing dynamics are increasingly governed by domestic procurement mandates. The Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) List-II, which requires domestic module makers to utilize domestic cells for public tenders, is officially in effect.
While Indian module prices are expected to linger near $0.20/W due to grandfathered 2026 projects, developers face near-term cell supply shortages for late-2026 and 2027 deliveries. A secondary cost adjustment is anticipated in 2028 when ALMM List-III mandates the use of domestically produced wafers.
Across all international sea lanes, elevated freight costs continue to compound baseline module pricing, said the report. Logistics disruptions tied to ongoing Middle East conflict and early peak-season surcharges have pushed ocean freight rates above $0.01/W, adding cost pressures to cross-border deliveries through 2027.
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