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IEEFA, an energy finance research institute, puts India’s solar module nameplate capacity at 233 GW in June 2026 and asks whether the market has built too much. The imbalance sits upstream, where cell capacity is nearly 7 times smaller and ingot-wafer capacity trails by 116 times. That mismatch leaves module plants running at an estimated 35-40% utilisation, below the 50-65% the industry considers sustainable. Neither of the report’s two pathways to 2030 clears the module surplus, and polysilicon is the hardest gap to close. Data centres, green hydrogen and exports offer the credible upside, together worth 17-22 GW of demand a year by 2030. Europe offers the most structured medium-term export opportunity as buyers diversify supply chains away from China. The timing favours India, as five major Chinese producers expect combined 2025 losses of $4.1-4.7 billion while Indian manufacturers stay profitable. Converting that edge still means closing the cost and technology gap with China.
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