Chinese cell prices fell for a third consecutive week as the export-buying rush faded and lower wafer and silver prices eased cost pressure.
Free-On-Board (FOB) China TOPCon M10 cell prices fell 2.29% week on week to $0.0469/W, while FOB China TOPCon 210R cell prices declined 1.72% to $0.0458/W, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on Sept. 15.
M10 and 210R cell prices are now approximately 12% below their late-August peaks but remain around 20% and 18% above their Aug. 4 levels, respectively.
Restocking by overseas buyers ahead of the U.S. Section 232 measures, set to take effect on Dec. 4, continued to fade as inventories accumulated in overseas warehouses, according to a tier-1 supplier.
Domestic demand also remained subdued as the shift to market-based electricity pricing under the Document 136 reform has reduced expected project returns relative to the previous fixed-tariff regime, according to a trade source.
China’s solar cell output, meanwhile, rose modestly in August to 67.02 GW, up approximately 1.9% from July, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released on Sept. 15. Production nevertheless remained 12.9% below year-earlier levels, while January–August output fell 14.6% year on year to 505.90 GW.
The trade source said cell prices may remain under pressure in the near term as inventories accumulate amid cooling overseas buying and continued domestic weakness.
On the cost side, the supplier said easing silver prices have reduced metallization costs. Silver prices fell as much as 9% from their late-August peak earlier this week but have since recovered to around 5% below that level.
Lower wafer prices are reinforcing the cost relief for cell producers. Market participants said persistent oversupply continued to weigh on the wafer market, with some specifications declining further this week.
According to the OPIS report, FOB China M10 wafer prices remained unchanged week on week at $0.149/pc. FOB China 210R wafer prices, in contrast, declined 1.92% to $0.153/pc.
M10 wafer prices have been comparatively stable as the format has a limited market share and production capacity inside China, while relatively strong overseas demand has provided additional support.
Despite weak market fundamentals, one trade participant noted that wafer inventories have started to decline, with manufacturers’ inventory days falling to less than two weeks of production. The source said wafer producers were maintaining production at their own pace, with no output cuts observed, while new polysilicon purchases by wafer manufacturers have remained limited.
With the fourth quarter approaching, market participants are watching whether wafer manufacturers will accelerate price cuts or reduce output to generate cash flow and draw down inventories. Some sources said second-tier manufacturers are already seeking to stimulate sales through lower prices, with wafer prices potentially declining further by the end of September.
However, another market participant said fourth-quarter wafer output is unlikely to be lower than in the third quarter and could gradually increase month over month through December, before producers begin bringing forward Lunar New Year holidays in January 2027.
Further upstream, market reports have circulated regarding a production-cut agreement involving the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and 10 major polysilicon manufacturers. Although the arrangement has not been officially confirmed, producers would reportedly operate at 35% of nominal capacity.
Some market participants expect the reported agreement to provide short-term support for polysilicon prices and ease inventory accumulation, potentially increasing procurement pressure on wafer manufacturers.
However, a source at a leading wafer producer said the wafer market had yet to respond, adding that the agreement’s implementation and actual impact still need to be verified.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
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