Solar names bounced hard on Thursday, but that relief trade collapsed by Friday morning, and now one question hangs over the sector: whether the rate path has already decided where these stocks go next.
Market Movers desk. Editor: David Moadel.
Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH | ENPH Price Prediction) is sliding again on Friday, giving back part of a bounce that formed earlier in the week. The Invesco Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is down 2%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down only 0.2%, so the selling is concentrated in solar rather than spread across the broad market.
ENPH stock is at $34.29, down 5% in Friday morning trading. That leaves Enphase Energy stock up 7% year to date (YTD), so today’s move clips a gain rather than deepens an existing hole.
Meanwhile, First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) stock is at $193.38, down 4%, part of the same sector move. Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN) stock is at $8.40, down 4%, extending a much longer slide for the residential installer.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates this week, its first increase in three years, and left the door open to another. Residential solar is financed rather than bought outright in most cases, which puts the cost of a loan directly underneath demand for home systems. That mechanism is the standing reason Enphase Energy trades on the rate path, and it explains why a macro headline can move the stock as sharply as a company release.
Enphase Energy’s residential microinverter and battery business is exposed to that dynamic more directly than a utility-scale competitor would be. When borrowing costs rise, homeowners defer or scale back the systems that carry Enphase Energy’s hardware, and the demand signal into its channel softens with them. That knock-on effect eventually shows up in shipments, sell-through and channel inventory.
Enphase Energy isn’t falling on its own today. First Solar and Sunrun are also lower, the Invesco Solar ETF slid alongside them, and the broad market barely moved. Any name in this group carries the same headline risk from the rate path, and Enphase Energy happens to be the biggest mover in the session.
24/7 Wall St. reported on Thursday that solar names rose as an earlier selloff in the group unwound. That advance hasn’t held into Friday, and Enphase Energy is giving back the largest share of it.
One feature separates Enphase Energy from the rest of the group. Enphase Energy stock is still higher on the year, so today’s selling clips a gain instead of deepening an existing hole the way it does at First Solar and Sunrun. That cushion is thin, however, and it doesn’t alter the source of the pressure on Enphase Energy.
The harder problem for Enphase Energy is that a demand story resting on financing costs doesn’t improve until the rate path does. Until borrowing conditions ease, the residential business at the center of Enphase Energy’s revenue mix stays under the same weight that pulled the stock lower on Friday.
Investors can watch for whether the Invesco Solar ETF holds through the close, since a break lower could drag Enphase Energy further with it. An advance in the same fund could lift Enphase Energy in kind, given how tightly the two names have tracked in this session.
For investors adding new exposure to Enphase Energy, a cautious posture makes sense while the sector trades on macro conditions rather than on company fundamentals. Trimming their positions, or waiting for a clearer read on borrowing costs, should keep their risk in line with a name whose demand backdrop remains tied to the rate cycle.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
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