We use cookies to improve your experience and for marketing. Read our cookie policy Manage cookies
Search across reports, market insights, and blog stories.
Cumulative solar photovoltaic manufacturing capital expenditure in the United States is forecast to reach $12.2 billion by the end of 2026, according to Terawatt PV Research, a figure that would represent more than half of all solar PV manufacturing spending recorded in the country since 2001. The projection appears in the firm’s new Solar Manufacturing USA Quarterly report, released on the same day as the analysis, which was carried out by the company’s founder.
The research draws on the author’s experience examining the operations of more than 500 solar PV manufacturers worldwide across a period of more than two decades, spanning the industry’s shift from research and development to commercial activity.
The U.S.-focused report is built around the core building blocks needed to interpret quarterly metrics at individual PV manufacturing sites: effective ramped capacity, production output, technology segmentation and manufacturing capex. For the first time, coverage of PV manufacturing capex extends beyond equipment spending at the company level.
The analysis now breaks capex down quarterly for individual U.S. manufacturing sites and further divides company, site, value-chain and technology-specific spending across buildings and infrastructure, new production equipment, and maintenance and upgrades. The consolidated totals are intended to provide an accurate picture of the domestic solar PV manufacturing landscape, supporting forecasting out to 2030.
The report covers company-specific manufacturing sites in production since 2020, the period leading into the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, the subsequent rise in manufacturing capex from 2023 onward, and bottom-up forecasting to the end of 2030 that factors in new investments arising from Section 232.
U.S. solar PV manufacturing capex has exceeded $2.5 billion in each year since 2023. A record $4.14 billion was spent during 2024, with more than 60% of that total coming from just two companies: First Solar, mainly through spending on new factories in Alabama and Louisiana, and Qcells, part of Hanwha Solutions, through vertically integrated investments in Georgia.
Segmenting capex across buildings and infrastructure, new production equipment, and maintenance and upgrades highlights differing dynamics at domestic production sites. Allocations to buildings and infrastructure vary widely, from refitting an existing warehouse for module assembly to building a dedicated greenfield site for solar cell manufacturing, a difference of more than an order of magnitude on a per-installed-watt basis. Buildings and infrastructure costs accounted for about 60% of total spending during the 2023-2026 period.
Effective capacity levels for crystalline silicon cells and modules in the United States have grown quarter on quarter since the start of 2025, with effective-capacity-conversion rates varying considerably by site, from 15-20% during early ramp-up to 70-80% at a select group of companies. Forecasting cell and module production volumes to 2030 frames the additional upstream capex needed for a more balanced silicon-based value chain in the country.
Site-level analysis allows regional trends to be identified quickly, and production data is particularly useful in assessing where materials supplies could be strategically developed. Currently, this type of analysis can only be applied to module production in the United States; doing so for ingots, wafers and cells is considered too early.
At state level, Ohio was the dominant zone for module production volumes leading into the rollout of the Inflation Reduction Act, by virtue of First Solar’s manufacturing bases. Texas has become the leader in the post-IRA era, emerging as the top state for module production in 2026 with contributions from Canadian Solar, Sirius/Elin, Imperial Star, SEG Solar, T1 Energy, TOYO/Abalance and Waaree Energies. Much of the remaining activity is in the Southeast, with a geographic split between the gulf coast corridor of Louisiana and Florida and an advanced manufacturing region covering the Carolinas, Georgia and Alabama.
The report’s final output is to rank and rate the companies analyzed. This step is intended to focus attention on the manufacturing decisions of the top 20 companies in the U.S. solar sector, a subset that typically accounts for more than 95% of all significant investment and production.
The report is built from a proprietary bottom-up database of U.S. solar manufacturing activity analyzed at site level by quarter. Production is tracked across the crystalline silicon value chain from polysilicon through modules, alongside segmented thin-film cell and module output equivalence. Capex is divided between buildings and infrastructure, production equipment, and maintenance and upgrades, while excluding research and development contributions. The underlying data draws on audited filings and company reporting where available, supplemented by market research based on operational and industry evidence and personal communications.
Production and capex are independently subjected to statistical transformation and normalization before being combined through a weighted methodology to generate a Manufacturing Strength score for each company. An operating-production screening process prevents companies with little or no realized output from being elevated solely by announced or early-stage capital spending. The scores determine company rankings, while a standardized Z-score analysis measures each qualifying manufacturer against the wider U.S. peer group and forms the basis of AAA-to-C Manufacturing Strength ratings presented as a truncated pyramid. Ratings are displayed annually, with each quarterly report updating production and capex assumptions and therefore the forecast full-year ranking and rating.
The first Manufacturing Strength Ratings Pyramid for U.S. solar PV manufacturers is scheduled to be revealed during an opening talk at the Solar Manufacturing USA 2026 conference in Austin, Texas, on 22-23 September 2026. The Solar Manufacturing USA Quarterly report is released today, with the first quarterly deliverable scheduled for the start of October 2026, when analysis for the third quarter of 2026 is completed. Report enquiries and subscriptions are managed exclusively by pv magazine USA, extending a working partnership that led to the launch of the Solar Manufacturing USA event in 2026.
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
The Largest Import Supplying Countries
The Largest Destinations for Exports
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
Instant access. No credit card needed.
Online access to 2M+ reports, dashboards, and tables. Trusted by Fortune 500 teams.
IndexBox, Inc.
2093 Philadelphia Pike #1441
Claymont, DE 19703, USA
Contact us
© 2026 IndexBox, Inc

source