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Minimal changes to our outlook indicate structural and policy challenges to continued growth
Trade actions and tariffs continue to challenge portions of the US solar manufacturing industry
Strong pipelines will ensure average additions of 43 GW in the next five years, but market challenges constrain growth
Residential solar slowly starts growing again in 2027, fueled by continued third-party ownership project tax credit eligibility and higher retail energy prices
1,179 MWdc installed in Q1 2026, up 6% from Q1 2025, down 15% from Q4 2025
The residential solar market grew 6% year-over-year in Q1, marking one of its strongest quarters in the past two years other than Q4 2025
After a significant contraction in 2026, the segment will begin recovery and grow at an average annual rate of 6% between 2027 and 2031
523 MWdc installed in Q1 2026, down 4% from Q1 2025, down 25% from Q4 2025
New commercial solar capacity additions driven by California, with Illinois and Pennsylvania gaining ground
Following a 2026 contraction, safe harbored project buildout and rising retail rates will drive sustained market growth through 2031
247 MWdc installed in Q1 2026, down 4% from Q1 2025, down 67% from Q4 2025
Strong project pipelines and improving queue efficiency bolster near-term outlook ahead of ITC expiration
National market growth will decline beginning in 2028 in the absence of new state programs
5.9 GWdc installed in Q1 2026, down 34% from Q1 2025, 211 GWdc of utility-scale solar will be added between 2026 and 2031
Slow Q1 installs mask strong underlying momentum, supported by on-schedule project execution and a 15% increase in contracting activity
We expect the utility-scale segment to add 211 GWdc between 2026 and 2031
Note: We employ a bottoms-up modeling methodology to capture, track and report national average PV system pricing by segment. Prices are reflective of ‘overnight’ pricing incurred in the year in which the project is being contracted, and no procurement or construction lags are being factored into modelling assumptions. The methodology is based on the tracked wholesale pricing of major solar components and data collected from industry interviews. Wood Mackenzie’s supply chain data and models are leveraged to enhance and bolster our pricing outlooks.
PV system prices fell for all segments except commercial in Q1 2026
The decline was driven by module prices decreasing across all segments and lower residential customer acquisition costs
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