The global photovoltaic market could experience an unexpected decline in new installations in 2026, according to BloombergNEF forecasts. The slowdown is largely associated with China, while solar capacity additions across the rest of the world are expected to continue expanding. Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG, examines how these developments could reshape the geographical balance of the global solar industry.
Key takeaway: BloombergNEF expects worldwide solar installations to fall from 655 GW in 2025 to 584 GW in 2026. China's projected contraction is large enough to outweigh continued growth across other markets.
Why Could Global Solar Installations Decline in 2026?
The expected decline in global photovoltaic installations is primarily connected to developments in China, which has dominated the expansion of solar capacity for several years. According to BloombergNEF, worldwide additions could decrease by approximately 10.8% in 2026, marking a reversal after a period of exceptional growth.
The forecast highlights an unusual contrast between China and the rest of the world. While Chinese installations are expected to fall sharply, other countries could collectively register another year of expansion.
The figures illustrate this divergence:
Global installations: 655 GW in 2025, compared with a projected 584 GW in 2026.
China: 383 GW in 2025, compared with approximately 271 GW in 2026.
Rest of the world: 272 GW in 2025, compared with a projected 313 GW in 2026.
Expected global decline: Approximately 10.8%.
These numbers suggest that the global photovoltaic industry is entering a period of geographical adjustment rather than experiencing a uniform decline in demand.
"The direction of the global solar market cannot be understood by looking at worldwide figures alone. China's extraordinary weight means that changes within a single national market can conceal continued expansion across dozens of other countries," says Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
China's Photovoltaic Market Enters a Different Phase
China's projected slowdown follows several years of exceptional growth in photovoltaic installations. The country added approximately 383 GW of solar capacity in 2025, reinforcing its position as the world's largest market for new solar installations.
Maintaining such extraordinary expansion rates indefinitely presents practical and economic challenges. As installed capacity increases, questions surrounding electricity demand, grid integration, project profitability, and energy storage become increasingly relevant.
BloombergNEF's projections suggest that China could add approximately 271 GW in 2026. Although considerably below the previous year's figure, this would still represent an enormous volume of new photovoltaic infrastructure.
What Explains the Slowdown in Chinese Solar Installations?
Several interconnected developments could help explain the expected contraction.
One concerns the maturity of the Chinese photovoltaic market. After years of rapid construction, the country's electricity system must accommodate an increasingly large volume of solar generation.
Another factor involves changes to electricity pricing mechanisms. Reforms affecting how renewable electricity is sold and remunerated can influence the economics of new projects, potentially encouraging developers to reassess investment decisions.
The figures for the first half of 2026 already indicate a pronounced slowdown. China reportedly installed approximately 71.8 GW of new photovoltaic capacity during this period, around 66% less than in the corresponding months of 2025.
Such a comparison must nevertheless be interpreted carefully. Exceptional installation levels in the previous year can make subsequent declines appear particularly dramatic.
"After a period of accelerated construction, the challenge increasingly concerns how effectively new and existing solar assets can operate within the electricity system. Installed capacity is only one dimension of a much broader energy transformation," explains Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
Solar Expansion Outside China Could Reach a New Milestone
Perhaps the most revealing aspect of BloombergNEF's forecast concerns developments beyond China.
Solar installations across the rest of the world are projected to increase from 272 GW in 2025 to approximately 313 GW in 2026. This would represent growth of around 15%, despite the anticipated contraction in the global total.
The geographical distribution of new photovoltaic capacity could therefore undergo an important change.
For the first time under these projections, countries outside China would collectively install more solar capacity than China itself in a single year.
This does not mean that another individual country is approaching China's scale. Rather, the combined expansion of numerous photovoltaic markets could begin to outweigh the contribution of the industry's longstanding leader.
How Could This Shift Affect the Global Solar Industry?
A more geographically distributed installation market could have implications for solar equipment manufacturers, project developers, electricity networks, and investment strategies.
Growing demand outside China may encourage companies to reconsider where future projects are developed and which regional markets offer the strongest opportunities.
At the same time, the distinction between manufacturing and installation remains important. China continues to occupy a central position in photovoltaic manufacturing and supply chains, regardless of changes in domestic deployment.
The evolution of installation figures should therefore not be confused with a comparable redistribution of industrial production.
Energy Storage and Grid Integration Gain Importance
As photovoltaic capacity expands, electricity systems face an increasingly complex challenge: matching variable solar generation with demand throughout the day.
Solar panels produce electricity according to sunlight availability, while consumption follows different daily and seasonal patterns. Without sufficient flexibility, periods of high renewable generation can place pressure on electricity networks and reduce the economic value of additional production.
Energy storage systems can help address some of these difficulties by absorbing electricity when generation is abundant and releasing it when demand increases.
Grid modernization, improved forecasting, flexible consumption, and stronger transmission infrastructure can also support the integration of renewable electricity.
China's growing interest in these solutions could reflect a broader evolution in the country's energy priorities. However, investment in storage should not automatically be interpreted as the direct cause of declining photovoltaic installations.
"The next stage of solar development will increasingly depend on the relationship between generation, storage, and electricity networks. Expanding photovoltaic capacity remains important, but the ability to use that electricity efficiently will shape the sector's long-term development," says Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
What Do BloombergNEF's Forecasts Mean for Solar Energy?
Is the global solar industry entering a prolonged decline?
Not necessarily. The projected contraction concerns new capacity additions during 2026, rather than the total amount of solar capacity already installed worldwide. A decline in annual additions does not imply that existing photovoltaic capacity is shrinking.
Will China remain the world's largest solar installation market?
Under BloombergNEF's projections, China would retain its position as the largest individual national market, with approximately 271 GW of new installations in 2026.
Why is growth outside China particularly noteworthy?
The projected increase to 313 GW suggests that photovoltaic deployment is becoming more geographically diversified. Expansion across other markets could continue even when Chinese installations decline.
A More Complex Phase for the Global Energy Transition
BloombergNEF's forecasts offer a useful reminder that the development of renewable energy rarely follows a perfectly linear trajectory.
The global photovoltaic industry could experience a contraction in annual installations while simultaneously recording continued growth across much of the world.
China remains central to this picture. Its domestic market is sufficiently large to influence worldwide figures, even when other countries move in the opposite direction.
The projected changes also point toward a broader transformation in the solar sector. Alongside the construction of new photovoltaic facilities, greater attention is being directed toward electricity networks, energy storage, and the efficient integration of renewable generation.
The figures for 2026 may therefore reveal more than a temporary slowdown. They could mark a period in which the geography of solar deployment becomes increasingly diversified and the industry's priorities extend beyond the simple addition of generating capacity.
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