[SMM Analysis] China's PV Module Exports, Sep 2026: Up 44% MoM as Middle East Surges and Southeast Asian Demand Improves – Shanghai Metals Market

China exported approximately 23.92 GW of photovoltaic (PV) modules in September 2026, according to SMM data. Shipments rose 44.18%, or 7.33 GW, from August but fell 6.67%, or 1.71 GW, year on year. January–September exports totalled approximately 184.66 GW, down 19.60 GW, or 9.6%, from 204.26 GW a year earlier.
September recorded the second-highest monthly volume of the year, breaking out of the roughly 16–20 GW range seen from May to August. The year-on-year decline narrowed markedly from August, although both monthly and cumulative exports remained below last year's levels.
Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands and the Philippines together added 3.63 GW month on month, accounting for 49.5% of China's total increase. Pakistan and Thailand, among other markets, declined. The rebound was concentrated in selected large-project markets and European distribution hubs, with destination markets continuing to diverge.

Across the identified destinations, exports to Europe totalled 7.19 GW in September, accounting for 30.1% of China's total. Asia Pacific accounted for 4.20 GW, or 17.6%; the Middle East for 3.97 GW, or 16.6%; Africa for 0.78 GW, or 3.3%; and the US for 0.22 GW, or 0.9%. Brazil, Colombia and Chile together accounted for 1.52 GW, or 6.4%. These destinations represented 74.7% of total exports, with Other accounting for the remaining 6.04 GW, or 25.3%. Türkiye is included in the Middle East, which is excluded from Asia Pacific.
Europe remained the leading export market, but its share fell approximately 6.5 percentage points from August as Middle Eastern shipments grew faster. The Middle East's share rose approximately 9.7 percentage points, the most significant shift in the month's export mix.

Exports to the European markets covered totalled 7.19 GW in September, up approximately 18.5%, or 1.12 GW, month on month but down 21.6% year on year. The Netherlands was the largest contributor to the monthly increase, rising 36.2%, or 0.88 GW, from 2.43 GW to 3.31 GW. Shipments to the UK, Spain and France reached 0.61 GW, 0.62 GW and 0.55 GW respectively, adding a combined 0.49 GW.
Some markets continued to decline. Italy fell from 0.63 GW to 0.56 GW, Belgium from 0.37 GW to 0.29 GW, and Portugal from 0.13 GW to 0.06 GW. Their combined reduction of 0.22 GW partly offset gains elsewhere.
SMM's market monitoring indicates that enquiries and some fourth-quarter delivery activity gradually resumed after Europe's summer holidays. However, trade remained dominated by existing orders, with limited improvement in new procurement. Low power purchase agreement prices, constraints on grid absorption of solar generation and rising module costs kept some developers cautious. SMM sees the September increase as potentially reflecting post-holiday deliveries and periodic restocking; stronger shipments through the Netherlands' distribution network do not indicate a broad-based recovery in European end demand.

Exports to the Asia-Pacific markets covered reached 4.20 GW in September, up approximately 24.3%, or 0.82 GW, month on month but down 13.8% year on year. The Philippines rose 131.1%, or 0.59 GW, from 0.45 GW to 1.04 GW. Vietnam increased from 0.27 GW to 0.55 GW, while Malaysia rose from 0.09 GW to 0.37 GW, each adding 0.28 GW. Together, these three markets contributed 1.15 GW of additional shipments.
Shipments to Pakistan fell from 1.15 GW to 0.51 GW, down 0.64 GW, or 55.7%, month on month and 50.0% year on year. Thailand declined from 0.35 GW to 0.17 GW, a reduction of 0.18 GW. Australia, Japan and India contributed additional growth, with shipments rising to 0.57 GW, 0.39 GW and 0.26 GW respectively.
Stronger demand in the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia supported an improvement in Southeast Asian module procurement. In Pakistan, however, August's purchasing recovery did not persist, with September shipments approximately 76.3% below June's 2.15 GW. Yet power cuts and load shedding intensified across multiple parts of the country in September. Fuel supply disruptions and unreliable grid supply made electricity security a greater priority for households and commercial and industrial users. SMM expects electricity supply reliability to be a key determinant of future distributed PV demand, with supply-security concerns increasing the appeal of solar-plus-storage and backup-power solutions.

Exports to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Türkiye totalled 3.97 GW in September, up approximately 245.2%, or 2.82 GW, month on month and 68.2% year on year. Saudi Arabia rose 291.9%, from 0.74 GW to 2.90 GW. Its 2.16 GW increase was the largest among the individual destination markets covered. The UAE increased from 0.27 GW to 0.78 GW, while Türkiye rose from 0.14 GW to 0.29 GW, adding 0.51 GW and 0.15 GW respectively.
Continued development of large-scale ground-mounted solar projects underpins Middle Eastern module procurement. An engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract was signed in September for Saudi Arabia's 2 GW Haden solar project, highlighting the expanding project pipeline. SMM sees phased procurement, equipment delivery and shipping schedules for existing projects as likely drivers of the concentrated increase in shipments.
Combined exports to South Africa and Nigeria reached 0.78 GW, up approximately 122.9%, or 0.43 GW, month on month and 41.8% year on year. South Africa rose 166.7%, from 0.15 GW to 0.40 GW, while Nigeria increased 90.0%, from 0.20 GW to 0.38 GW.
Projects supplying commercial and industrial electricity buyers continued to come online in South Africa, while residential solar and mini-grid development progressed in Nigeria, supporting module demand. However, combined September shipments were only 0.03 GW above July's 0.75 GW. SMM therefore views the increase primarily as catch-up purchasing from August's low base, rather than evidence of sustained demand expansion.

China's direct module exports to the US reached approximately 0.22 GW in September, up 0.10 GW, or 83.3%, from August. Shipments rose 450% from the low base of 0.04 GW a year earlier but still accounted for only approximately 0.9% of China's total. The strong percentage increase therefore provided only a limited contribution to overall export growth.
The US temporary anti-stockpiling rule under Section 232 took effect on 22 September. It imposes volume limits on certain newly registered importers and increases scrutiny of unusually large purchases by existing importers, constraining stockbuilding before broader import adjustments take effect in December. SMM assesses that these restrictions have weakened the incentive to bring forward purchases, keeping the US contribution to China's module exports at a low level.
Exports to Brazil, Colombia and Chile together totalled 1.52 GW, up approximately 9.4%, or 0.13 GW, month on month but down 44.3% year on year. Brazil rose 10.6%, from 1.04 GW to 1.15 GW, adding 0.11 GW. Chile increased from 0.06 GW to 0.16 GW, adding 0.10 GW, while Colombia fell from 0.29 GW to 0.21 GW, offsetting part of those gains with a decline of 0.08 GW.
Brazil's Sol de Brotas solar projects commissioned 130 MW in September, indicating continued progress on existing developments. SMM sees project deliveries and periodic restocking as possible drivers of the increase in shipments to Brazil and Chile. However, exports to Brazil remained 48.7% below the same month last year, while Colombia failed to sustain August's elevated purchases. Growth across Latin America has yet to become sustained and broad-based.
China's module exports rebounded sharply in September, with gains concentrated in Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands and selected Southeast Asian markets. Project deliveries and periodic restocking were prominent drivers. National exports remained below last year's level, but demand picking up in the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia supported an improvement in Southeast Asia. Fourth-quarter priorities are large-project deliveries in the Middle East, new European procurement and the durability of Southeast Asian demand. Pakistan's electricity supply problems are expected to support future solar and solar-plus-storage demand, while US Section 232 anti-stockpiling restrictions leave limited scope for accelerated purchasing.
Source: SMM
Written by:
Ryan Tey Tze Yang | SMM PV Analyst
+60 127179370 | ryan.tey@metal.com
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.
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