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New Delhi: China’s proposed restrictions on exports of 12 solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing technologies could encourage India to accelerate domestic production of solar wafers, cells and ingots, although the move may create short-term challenges for capacity expansion, according to a report by JM Financial, ANI reported.
China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology proposed on October 16 adding 12 solar PV manufacturing technologies to its Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export. The proposal covers technologies used in producing polysilicon, silicon wafers and solar cells, as well as critical and core equipment incorporating these technologies.
The proposed measures classify the technologies into prohibited and restricted categories. Stakeholders have been invited to submit feedback until November 15, 2026.
JM Financial said the proposed restrictions could strengthen the case for India to develop capabilities across the solar manufacturing value chain, particularly in upstream segments. However, it cautioned against interpreting the proposal as a blanket ban on all TOPCon production lines, Chinese machinery or technology transfers.
“We view it as structurally positive for Indian solar manufacturing (may accelerate backward integration) with short-term disruption,” the report said.
India continues to rely on China for several essential inputs used in solar manufacturing, including specialised production equipment, industrial gases and chemicals, spare parts, process software and skilled engineers. Restrictions affecting access to these resources could disrupt near-term expansion plans, even as they increase the incentive for Indian manufacturers to build domestic capabilities.
“The greatest opportunity lies in moving upstream, but that is where the technological and execution barriers are the highest,” JM Financial said.
The report also noted that companies best positioned to benefit from the changing trade environment may not necessarily be India’s largest solar cell and module manufacturers. Manufacturers capable of expanding beyond module assembly into solar cell, wafer and ingot production could have greater opportunities to strengthen their position in the domestic market.
However, establishing these capabilities could involve higher costs and implementation challenges. Delays in equipment supplies or the need to source more expensive machinery from European vendors could increase the cost of setting up new manufacturing facilities. Higher production costs could eventually translate into increased domestic prices for solar cells and modules.
The report said a significant rise in domestic prices could prompt India to consider relaxing the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers-II (ALMM-II) mandate beyond December 2026.
Meanwhile, Chinese exporters could respond by offering finished solar products, including cells and modules, at more competitive prices. Such pricing could make imported products more attractive to Indian solar project developers, potentially intensifying competition for domestic manufacturers.
The proposed restrictions could therefore create both opportunities and near-term risks for India’s solar industry, with the long-term benefits depending on manufacturers’ ability to overcome technological, equipment-sourcing and execution challenges in expanding domestic production across the value chain, ANI stated.
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