Aerospace and Defense Outlook 2026
China has taken a significant step toward expanding its technology export control regime. On October 16, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (“MOFCOM”) and the Ministry of Science and Technology (“MOST”) jointly issued Announcement No. 48 (“Announcement No. 48”), which releases for public comment proposed revisions to the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export of China (the “Technology Catalogue”). The proposal would add targeted controls in three strategically important sectors: artificial intelligence (“AI”), life sciences and photovoltaics. If adopted, certain technologies could not be exported at all, and others could be exported only under a technology export license.
The proposed revisions are relevant to multinational companies (“MNCs”) with research and development (“R&D”), manufacturing, engineering, data, software or business development operations in China. They are equally relevant to companies without a physical presence in China that source, license, co-develop or acquire technology from Chinese parties. The controls extend beyond finished products to technical know-how, process platforms, source code, model weights, chip and equipment designs, manufacturing processes and related technical materials.
Notably, Announcement No. 48 also introduces an interim pre-export registration requirement that applies pending the revised Technology Catalogue taking effect. No comparable mechanism accompanied previous revisions of the Technology Catalogue. The public comment period ends on November 15, 2026, after which MOFCOM will conduct a comprehensive assessment before issuing the finalized Technology Catalogue.
China regulates technology exports through a regime separate from its dual-use items export control regime. Exports of dual-use items, including related technologies, are governed by the PRC Export Control Law and the Regulations on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items, and are administered by reference to the Dual-Use Items Export Control List. The technology export regime, by contrast, is grounded in the PRC Foreign Trade Law and the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on the Administration of Technology Import and Export (the “Technology Regulations”), under which technologies are classified as prohibited, restricted or freely exportable.
The Technology Catalogue, jointly issued by MOFCOM and MOST, identifies prohibited and restricted technologies. Each entry sets out the industry sector, a technology code, the technology name and its control points. Codes ending in “J” denote prohibited technologies, which may not be exported; codes ending in “X” denote restricted technologies, which may be exported only under a license.
Under the Technology Regulations, an exporter of restricted technology must obtain a license letter of intent before entering into substantive negotiations, and must then obtain an export license once the contract is signed. The contract takes effect only upon issuance of the license. Technologies not listed in the Technology Catalogue may generally be exported freely, subject to contract registration.
MOFCOM described Announcement No. 48 as a routine adjustment under Article 20 of the PRC Foreign Trade Law. Since first issuing the Technology Catalogue in 2001, MOFCOM and MOST have revised it several times, adding and removing entries, most recently through a comprehensive revision in 2023 and an amendment in 2025. MOFCOM stated that the proposal is not directed at any particular country, region or entity, and noted that AI, life sciences and photovoltaic technologies are increasingly used in sensitive fields and that other major economies already regulate exports of these technologies to varying degrees.
Announcement No. 48 covers 40 key technologies across three sectors: AI, life sciences and photovoltaics. Of these, 14 technologies are proposed to be prohibited from export, including AI-driven malicious code generation and mutation technologies, cell and gene therapy technology and process platforms with independent intellectual property rights, and perovskite and tandem cell module production technologies. The remaining 26 technologies are proposed to be restricted, including AI-assisted vulnerability discovery technologies, proprietary technologies for the discovery and validation of wholly new cell and gene therapy targets, and certain polysilicon engineering technologies. Announcement No. 48 also identifies circumstances in which facilitation measures would apply. The key updates are summarized below:
Announcement No. 48 introduces an interim requirement that takes effect immediately. From its date of issuance until the revised Technology Catalogue formally takes effect, exporters must register on MOFCOM’s online technology trade management platform before exporting any technology listed in Announcement No. 48. The requirement also covers exports that have commenced but have not yet been completed. Exporters are responsible for determining whether their technology falls within the listed entries. This pre-export registration mechanism is new and did not feature in any previous revision of the Technology Catalogue.
Announcement No. 48 also identifies the forms of technology export covered by the registration requirement. In addition to transfers of technology from within China to outside China through trade, investment or economic and technical cooperation, it expressly covers a change of the owner or actual controller of PRC technology to a foreign entity. This point merits particular attention. Article 2 of the Technology Regulations defines technology export as the transfer of technology from within China to outside China through trade, investment or economic and technical cooperation, including the assignment of patent rights and patent application rights, patent licensing, the transfer of technical secrets, technical services and other forms of technology transfer. That definition does not expressly address a change in the ownership or control of the technology holder, and MOFCOM has not previously taken a clear position on the issue. As a result, foreign acquisitions of, or investments in, Chinese technology companies may now need to be assessed under the technology export regime.
Announcement No. 48 remains a draft for public comment. Based on the current text, the interim registration does not appear to involve substantive review or approval; rather, it appears to serve primarily as an information-gathering tool enabling MOFCOM to understand export demand and assess related risks. Interested parties may submit comments to MOFCOM through the channels specified in Announcement No. 48 on or before November 15, 2026.
The proposed revisions are not limited to shipments of physical goods. The Technology Catalogue governs transfers of technical know-how, source code, software, process documentation, equipment drawings, model weights, platform technologies and other technical materials from China to recipients outside China. MNCs with R&D, engineering, manufacturing, cloud, data or business development functions in China should map their cross-border technology flows against the proposed entries. Companies without a China presence should also review technology they source, license or acquire from Chinese parties, as well as any planned acquisition of, or investment in, a Chinese technology holder.
For AI businesses, the most immediate questions are likely to concern model development, data classification, overseas deployment and access to PRC-developed technology. Companies should be prepared to document training data sources, whether Core Data or Important Data is involved, parameter counts, training compute, access to model weights and source code, chip design elements, and the structure of overseas computing or deployment arrangements. Companies should also assess carefully whether the public domain carve-out or the facilitation measures apply in their particular circumstances. Given the rapid pace of AI development and the wide variety of collaboration, transaction and licensing structures in this sector, the analysis will need to be conducted on a case-by-case basis.
In addition, the proposed controls on AI technologies intersect with China’s broader data security and classification framework, particularly where model training or development involves Core Data or Important Data. Companies should coordinate technology export reviews with their existing data-mapping, classification and cross-border data transfer processes. Where an overseas deployment, R&D collaboration or other technology transfer involves overseas access to underlying training, testing or other datasets from China, applicable data export requirements may be triggered independently of the technology export regime. Companies should therefore integrate technology export screening with existing data inventories and mapping, data classification, identification of Important Data and Core Data, and cross-border data transfer assessments, and consider at an early stage precisely what technology and data will be made accessible outside China.
For life sciences companies, the proposed revisions draw an important distinction between transfers of proprietary platform-level technology and product-specific collaborations. A transfer of ownership of a proprietary cell and gene therapy or siRNA platform may therefore have a materially different regulatory outcome from an out-license or collaboration involving only a particular drug candidate. Companies entering into cross-border licensing, co-development, option, outsourced R&D or manufacturing, and other business development arrangements should identify precisely what intellectual property, know-how, process documentation and other technical information will be made available to the overseas counterparty.
The restricted entries concerning “wholly new targets” may be particularly relevant to early-stage biotech companies and discovery collaborations. Whether a target qualifies as “wholly new” turns on whether it has been publicly disclosed anywhere in the world, including through patents, academic literature, public databases, industry technical materials or academic conferences. Companies may therefore need to conduct and document a global prior-publication review before transferring target-discovery or validation technology abroad.
The interim registration requirement also warrants particular attention. Even where an out-licensing arrangement is not subject to an outright prohibition and may qualify for a facilitation measure, licensing PRC technology for use overseas is within the interim registration regime. In addition, the inclusion of changes in the owner or actual controller of PRC technology means that acquisitions of, or investments in, Chinese biotechnology companies holding potentially in-scope technology may also require technology-export analysis.
For photovoltaic businesses, the proposed controls may affect overseas manufacturing projects, equipment transfers, process packages, plant engineering, technical drawings and technical support for advanced cell and module production.
Companies should consider conducting a targeted impact assessment before the comment deadline and before entering into new cross-border technology arrangements. The assessment should identify technologies that may be in scope, determine whether a transaction constitutes a technology export from China, classify any in-scope technology as prohibited or restricted, evaluate whether a carve-out or facilitation measure is available, and build sufficient time into transaction documents and project timelines for registration and licensing. Where the proposed scope, technical thresholds, procedures or facilitation measures may materially affect their operations or planned transactions, companies may also wish to submit comments to MOFCOM by November 15, 2026.
 
 
Authored by Stephanie Sun, Sherry Gong, Jessie Xie, Xiaoxian Wan and Lucas Xie.
Stephanie Sun
Hong Kong
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Sherry Gong
Beijing
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Jessie Xie
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