Lithium demand from stationary storage is expected to slow sharply after two years of rapid growth, according to new analysis from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which also estimates the lithium industry will need the equivalent of 134 new mines to meet 2050 demand.
“Lithium demand from stationary storage has grown more than 60% a year for the past two years, but we expect that pace to slow significantly, to around 5% a year to the end of the decade,” said Cameron Perks, product director for lithium at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
The London-based analyst house forecasts that electric vehicles will account for 76% of global lithium demand by 2050, up from 55% today, “as the rapid recent growth in stationary storage moderates.” Batteries account for 92% of lithium demand in 2026, up from around 70% in 2020, said Benchmark.
Benchmark did not say in its release what is driving the expected slowdown. The forecast concerns lithium demand rather than storage deployment volumes. In January, Benchmark head of research Iola Hughes told ESS News the firm was forecasting more than 450 GWh of new operational storage capacity in 2026, up from about 315 GWh installed in 2025.
Many mines
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts global lithium demand will reach about 7 million metric tons (MT) of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2050, up from 2.11 million MT in 2026. At an average mine size of 36,000 MT of LCE, that growth equals the output of 134 new mines, including 44 needed to meet demand growth between 2040 and 2050 alone.
“Meeting 2050 demand requires the equivalent of 134 new lithium mines, more than $100 billion of investment before any contribution from recycling, rising to more than 180 mines in our upside scenario,” Perks said. “The biggest challenge is sustaining that investment through price cycles, while competing for capital with AI, defence and the wider energy transition.”
Benchmark’s upside scenario, with almost 9 million MT of LCE demand, is “driven largely by EV and energy storage policies worldwide.”
Recycling is forecast to account for almost half of lithium supply by 2050. “Recycling will grow, but our base case asks a lot of it,” Perks said. “Every [metric ton] that recycling doesn’t deliver has to come from a mine.”
Benchmark said it expects Australia’s share of mined supply to fall from 29% in 2026 to 20% by 2050, while China’s holds at around 25%. North America’s share is forecast to rise from 1.7% to 13%, and Europe’s from less than 1% to 5.5%.
Storage developers are also beginning to diversify away from lithium. In July, Alfen and CATL agreed to deploy 5 GWh of sodium-ion storage in Europe, with the companies saying the move would diversify materials and reduce exposure to lithium price swings.
From ESS News
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