Solar stocks are staging a sharp comeback after last week's brutal earnings selloff, but with guidance cuts still hanging over the sector and Treasury yields in flux, the real question is whether this bounce has any staying power.
Market Movers desk. Editor: David Moadel.
Solar stocks are winning back part of last week’s earnings-driven losses, and two of the most beaten-down residential names are setting the pace. Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH | ENPH Price Prediction) stock is at $28.55, up 11% in morning trading. Moving nearly in tandem, Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN) stock is at $8.21, up 10%.
Both names are bouncing from deep holes. Sunrun stock is still down 55% year to date (YTD), which leaves the residential installer highly exposed to any shift in borrowing costs. Even after its jump, Enphase stock sits below the $30.36 it traded at when the company reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 27.
The rally reaches across the group. SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ:SEDG) stock is higher ahead of its upcoming earnings report. Moving the other way, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) stock is lower after a strong run that included a record high last week.
The selloff started with Enphase. Enphase stock sank 20% on October 28 after the company issued weak fourth-quarter 2026 guidance. Third-quarter revenue at Enphase fell 28.5% year over year to $293.33 million, missing expectations, while its non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.41 trailed the $0.50 consensus. That quarter also carried a $26.5 million investment impairment, which cut Enphase’s non-GAAP EPS by $0.14.
Enphase guided its fourth-quarter revenue to $225 million to $255 million. On the earnings call, CEO Badri Kothandaraman spoke. He said, “We are not seeing any meaningful recovery in U.S. demand.” He tied the weakness to higher interest rates and the expiration of the Section 25D federal tax credit.
First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) added to the pressure on October 29, when it cut its full-year 2026 net sales guidance to $4.6 billion to $4.9 billion from $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion. Alongside the cut, the company’s board authorized a $500 million share repurchase program.
Falling Treasury yields may explain part of the rebound, since residential installers such as Sunrun depend on financing (Treasury yields fell this morning). Back in September, high borrowing costs were hurting project financing across solar. Oil prices fell more than 4% on hopes for U.S.-Iran talks. The Wall Street Journal reported this could be pulling money from Exxon Mobil and other oil names toward solar. Since solar mostly competes in electricity markets, that link reflects investor rotation.
First Solar stock is up 5% to $183.73, a smaller gain than either residential name. The company’s third-quarter picture was mixed in a different way from Enphase’s. Net income at First Solar reached $571 million, and its contracted backlog stood at 44 gigawatts.
CEO Mark Widmar addressed Section 232. He described it as “a structural change in how the United States approaches solar manufacturing.” His company is the only fully integrated utility-scale manufacturer without dependency on the Chinese crystalline silicon supply chain, according to First Solar.
Management at First Solar also said customers are postponing procurement for early-stage projects that need delivery later in the decade, and that caution sits alongside higher pricing in some new negotiations started after Section 232 was announced.
Enphase sells hardware, primarily microinverters and home batteries, to installers and distributors. Residential sell-through drives most of the company’s results. However, Enphase is pushing into commercial solar, electric vehicle (EV) chargers and a solid-state transformer aimed at artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.
Sunrun sits further down the chain as a residential installer and lease provider. That model is asset-heavy and built on long-term customer agreements that require steady access to capital, which is why borrowing costs press so heavily on Sunrun.
First Solar operates at the other end of the market, making thin-film panels for utility-scale projects. A U.S. manufacturing presence makes First Solar a recipient of the Section 45X manufacturing tax credit, and its customers are utility developers instead of homeowners.
The bulls can point to easing yields, a battery push at Enphase and AI power projects at Sunrun and SolarEdge. Bears have solid ground too, since Enphase expects its sell-through to decline in the fourth quarter and Sunrun cut its 2026 cash generation guidance on August 5.
For SolarEdge, the next test is whether its upcoming earnings report shows U.S. residential demand steadying. A rally like this one could fade if Treasury yields climb again, because a single bounce doesn’t undo the guidance cuts behind last week’s slide. Investors may want to stay cautious until the U.S. residential demand picture resolves.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
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