The rapid deployment of solar photovoltaic systems is creating a growing end of life waste challenge, particularly in emerging economies where structured approaches to estimating recycling costs remain limited. A new study, titled ‘A decision-support framework for structuring and assessing photovoltaic panel recycling costs in emerging economies,’proposes a framework to help decision makers understand the cost dimensions of photovoltaic panel recycling and assess whether recycling initiatives can be economically sustainable.
The research responds to a widening gap between the environmental case for recycling and its commercial reality. Photovoltaic panels contain valuable and potentially hazardous materials, and recycling can recover resources for reuse in the solar industry and other sectors. However, the durability that makes panels effective during operation also makes them difficult and costly to process once they reach the end of their useful life.
The study notes that solar energy is expected to overtake natural gas by 2026 and coal by 2027 as a major source of global electricity generation. Without effective recycling systems, discarded panels could become a substantial waste burden within the next 15 to 20 years. The researchers warn that recycling often appears less economically attractive than landfill disposal, with the volume of material processed being a key driver of cost.
To address this, the researchers conducted a systematic literature review to identify recycling cost components. These were then structured using the Function Analysis System Technique, a method that groups related cost elements into functional categories. Expert evaluation was used to validate the relevance of each component.
The framework applies the Fuzzy Delphi method and Mean Rank Position to build consensus among experts on which costs matter most. The Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis method is then used to assign relative weights to the cost categories. The result is a set of weighted cost clusters that can be used to compare recycling technologies, logistics arrangements, suppliers and regulatory scenarios.
According to the study, this structure can support strategic planning, operational management, investment decisions and risk management across the photovoltaic circular economy. It is designed to help managers, investors and policymakers move beyond isolated cost estimates and adopt a more consistent basis for assessing recycling projects.
The framework was developed and validated in an emerging economy context, with Brazil providing a relevant regulatory backdrop. Brazilian rules require suppliers to take responsibility for the reverse logistics of photovoltaic panels, including collection points and proper disposal. The country has also introduced fiscal incentives for projects that promote material reuse, recycling technologies and related infrastructure.
The researchers emphasise that the framework is modular and adaptable. Cost components and category weights can be recalibrated to reflect local regulations, market conditions, technology availability and waste volumes. This flexibility is important for African markets, where solar deployment is expanding rapidly but recycling infrastructure, collection systems and policy frameworks are still developing.
The study also identifies opportunities to strengthen the model through artificial intelligence, digital twins and stochastic cost modelling. These tools could improve waste volume forecasting, optimise collection and logistics, simulate recycling chains and account for uncertainty in processing costs and recovered material prices.
Future research will focus on applying the framework to operational data from recycling facilities, testing its performance across different regulatory and technological environments, and refining its cost index. Longitudinal studies are also recommended to examine how scale, regulation and market conditions affect recycling economics over time.
For energy sector stakeholders in Africa, the research highlights a practical message: planning for solar panel recycling should begin well before large volumes of panels reach end of life. A structured understanding of collection, transport, dismantling, material recovery and compliance costs could help position recycling as both an environmental necessity and a investable business opportunity.
Link to the full paper HERE
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
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