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The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its latest report, India Renewable Energy Market Report 2026: Analysis and Forecast to 2030, estimates that India’s solar PV capacity will exceed 350 GW in AC terms by 2030.
The report attributes this expansion to strong cost competitiveness, sustained auction activity, growing demand through open access mechanisms and the accelerating deployment of rooftop solar.
Utility-scale projects, which accounted for around 75% of solar PV capacity additions over the past five years, are expected to see their share gradually decline to approximately 70% by 2030.
This points to a gradual diversification of India’s solar market, with distributed solar installations, including rooftop solar, expected to account for a growing share of new capacity additions. While utility-scale solar will continue to expand, distributed installations are anticipated to grow at a faster pace.
According to the IEA, this shift will be supported by policy measures, improving project economics and simplified administrative procedures, which are expected to accelerate deployment in the distributed solar segment.

Open-access renewable energy projects have emerged as an important complement to government-led procurement programmes, particularly in states with high industrial electricity demand, including Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan, the IEA noted.
Around 7 GW of solar PV and wind capacity was contracted through open access in 2025, highlighting the growing role of commercial and industrial demand in supporting renewable energy deployment.
The broader Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) and Renewable Consumption Obligation (RCO) framework has also played an important role in supporting India’s renewable electricity expansion.
These obligations create predictable demand for renewable electricity procurement among utilities and large consumers. Procurement linked to RPO/RCO targets is expected to continue supporting solar PV and wind deployment through competitive auctions and open-access contracting.

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