Solar PV is expected to account for three-quarters of global renewable capacity expansion through 2031, says the IEA in a new report
It projects India to become the world’s second-largest renewable growth market after China, with capacity additions accelerating significantly
The report stresses the need for grid investment, battery storage, and more diversified supply chains to support the expanding renewable energy market
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global renewable power capacity to grow by more than 4,770 GW between 2026 and 2031, a 57% increase over the previous six-year period. Solar PV will drive around 75% of this growth, with 2,075 GW of utility-scale capacity and 1,530 GW of distributed solar capacity expected to be added.
Distributed solar applications include residential, commercial, industrial, and off-grid installations. Together, these segments underline the growing role of solar in meeting electricity demand from utilities, businesses, and households, the IEA highlights in its latest report, Renewables 2026.
Growing concerns over energy security and dependence on imported fossil fuels are strengthening the case for renewable energy, and solar PV is expected to lead global capacity expansion through 2031. What works for solar is its relatively low generation costs, shorter installation timelines, and supportive government policies.
The report authors also see onshore wind expanding by more than 70% to 2,040 GW by 2031. Overall, renewable energy’s share of global electricity generation is expected to rise from around one-third in 2025 to nearly 45% by 2031.
China is expected to remain the largest contributor to global renewable capacity growth, although its share is projected to decline from more than 60% in 2025 to around 53% during 2026–2031. A shift from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions contributed to an almost 55% year-on-year decline in China’s solar PV additions during the first nine months of 2026 (see China Adds 110.83 GW AC Solar In 9M 2026, Down 54%).
The IEA has consequently reduced its forecast for China’s renewable capacity growth by 5%, or nearly 116 GW, compared with its previous outlook.
India, meanwhile, is expected to become the world’s second-largest renewable growth market according to the IEA’s projections. Its renewable capacity expansion during 2026–2031 is forecast to be 2.6 times higher than in the previous six-year period. India’s contribution to global renewable capacity growth is projected to nearly double to around 8.5%.
The Asia-Pacific region, excluding China, is expected to add more than 840 GW of renewable capacity by 2031, more than double the additions recorded during 2020–2025. India is projected to account for nearly half of this expansion, followed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with a 20% share. Solar PV is expected to drive most of the regional growth.
India is also gaining importance in the global solar manufacturing landscape. The IEA expects India to become the only country besides China capable of manufacturing all major components of the solar PV supply chain at scale by 2031. This could support efforts to diversify a market that remains highly concentrated in China.
The IEA also highlights the growing role of rooftop solar as households and small businesses seek more affordable and reliable electricity. High fuel prices and unreliable grid supplies are encouraging consumers to install solar systems to reduce electricity bills and improve energy access. 
Additional rooftop solar installations have improved electricity access and services for around 70 million households worldwide since 2022, according to the report. Off-grid solar PV capacity is expected to grow 2.5 times to around 80 GW by 2031, led by Pakistan, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.
Beyond Asia, renewable capacity additions are expected to increase across Africa and the Middle East. The IEA has revised its forecast for sub-Saharan Africa upwards by 54%, with solar PV accounting for more than 80% of the region’s new capacity. Renewable capacity in the Middle East and North Africa is also expected to more than double during the forecast period.
The report writers also identify a growing gap between officially reported solar PV installations and panel imports from China in several developing economies, describing the discrepancy as ‘missing PV panels’. The difference suggests that households and businesses are installing small rooftop and ground-mounted solar systems that are not fully reflected in official capacity statistics.
The rapid expansion of solar and wind will require substantial investment in electricity networks and storage. The IEA warns that grid connection bottlenecks could slow project deployment. Advanced-stage renewable energy and storage projects waiting for grid connections worldwide increased by 60% over the past year to 3,000 GW.
Battery storage, stronger transmission networks and more flexible electricity demand will be important in managing the growing share of variable renewable generation it adds. It also makes the case for digital technologies to help shift electricity consumption to periods when solar and wind generation is abundant.
The IEA said faster implementation of auctions, grid investment, storage deployment and permitting reforms could help the world achieve its target of tripling renewable capacity by 2030, although its main forecast falls short of that goal.
The complete report is available on the IEA’s website for free download.
TaiyangNews 2024

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