A new report from the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA) says India could build solar manufacturing across the whole value chain by 2047, supporting 32.3 lakh direct and indirect jobs and USD 89 billion in investment. It also projects that the country’s solar import bill, now about USD 4.4 billion a year, could fall to zero by 2041.
The report, titled Vision 2047: Solar Manufacturing from Polysilicon to Power Plant, argues that India needs to move beyond module assembly into polysilicon, ingots, wafers and cells. ISMA says this would let the country keep more of the value from each panel it makes. It estimates the full chain could meet domestic demand within a decade and also serve exports.
Capacity
Under the pathway, installed solar capacity would reach 2,275 GW by 2047. Manufacturing capacity would stand at 3,266 GW for modules, 2,796 GW for cells, 2,479 GW for ingots and wafers, and 2,156 GW equivalent for polysilicon. Cells would scale up through 2030 and wafers through 2035, with the complete chain in place after that. ISMA projects India’s share of global module supply at 26.5% by 2047, against around 5.9% by 2030 under current policy.
Jobs and investment
Manufacturing-related employment would rise from about 4.1 lakh now to 8.1 lakh by 2030. Direct jobs in solar photovoltaic (PV) plants would grow from around 1.4 lakh to 11.1 lakh by 2047, with nearly 68% of them in upstream segments such as cells, wafers and polysilicon.
The report puts the new investment need at about USD 89 billion by 2047, or roughly USD 4.3 billion a year from 2027 to 2047. Nearly 70% would go into polysilicon, wafers and cells. It notes that the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme had drawn about USD 8.4 billion by June 2026, with each dollar of incentive bringing in around four dollars of private capital.
Amit Manohar, Secretary General, ISMA, said, “India’s solar manufacturing sector stands at a pivotal moment, with the Vision 2047 pathway presenting an unprecedented opportunity to build a globally competitive, integrated manufacturing ecosystem. The potential to attract USD 89 billion in investments, generate over 32 lakh jobs and significantly reduce import dependence underscores the strategic importance of strengthening domestic manufacturing across the entire solar value chain. Realising this ambition will require sustained policy support, a predictable demand pipeline, investments in upstream manufacturing and continued efforts to strengthen India’s global competitiveness.”
Conditions
ISMA lists policy certainty, steady domestic demand and timely delivery of manufacturing programmes as essential. It wants firm timelines under the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), completion of PLI-backed projects, wider rooftop and agricultural solar programmes, and faster upstream investment.
The targets carry risks. Past module overcapacity shows that capacity can outrun demand and squeeze margins, and automation could limit upstream hiring. Ending imports also does not ensure cost competitiveness. The real test is whether India can build an export-oriented base that does not depend on permanent protection.
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