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Researchers in Iran have built a computational model that predicts hailstone trajectories and the severity of their impact on photovoltaic modules under varying wind conditions and panel tilt angles, according to pv magazine. The study, reported by the publication, accounts for wind speed, wind direction and hailstone aerodynamics when assessing potential mechanical damage to solar panels.
Corresponding author Armin Hasanpour told the publication that the team combined wind speed, wind direction, hailstone aerodynamic behavior and panel tilt angle, calculating trajectories from gravitational and aerodynamic forces and solving the governing equations with the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. He said the aim was to produce mathematical relationships and numerical tools for predicting potential hailstorm damage.
Hasanpour indicated that such quantitative approaches could eventually feed photovoltaic hail-risk databases used by insurers, help policymakers assess climate-related risks, and assist designers in choosing panel tilt angles suited to local meteorological conditions.
The researchers used a 3 MW solar project in Takestan, Iran, as a case study, drawing on regional weather records from 2004 to 2024 to characterize local conditions. They simulated spherical hailstones with diameters from 1 cm to 10 cm under wind speeds of 1 m/s to 50 m/s, assuming constant air and ice densities and an initial release height of 2,000 m.
The model incorporated gravitational forces and aerodynamic drag, with equations solved using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. Simulations using constant drag coefficients were compared with those using Reynolds-number-dependent coefficients. Calculated impact velocities were projected onto the direction normal to the panel surface to determine the perpendicular component of kinetic energy. The site-specific analysis compared tilt angles of 25 degrees and 30 degrees under four wind scenarios: 22.8 m/s from 350 degrees, and 24 m/s from 200, 350 and 360 degrees.
The team also developed a conceptual damage model using an assumed critical energy threshold of 2 J to classify impacts and illustrate potential cracking and indentation, and validated simulation results against an angle-adjusted theoretical impact-energy calculation.
Hasanpour said one of the most notable findings was the strong influence of wind direction on hailstone impact conditions. Wind speed alone, he indicated, cannot adequately describe impact behavior, because the interaction of wind direction, wind speed and panel orientation can substantially change the angle and energy distribution of an impact.
He also pointed to the drag coefficient as a key result. For relatively large hailstones, particularly those 8 cm or more in diameter, assuming a constant drag coefficient could produce deviations of up to roughly 14% compared with calculations using a variable coefficient. He said this shows why aerodynamic assumptions deserve careful consideration in predictive models.
Hasanpour further noted that shifting the panel tilt angle from 25 degrees to 30 degrees alters impact characteristics and the component of kinetic energy acting perpendicular to the panel surface. He concluded that panel orientation should not be chosen on energy production alone, since local hailstorm conditions and potential damage risks also warrant consideration.
The findings appeared in a paper titled Numerical modeling and analysis of weather conditions effects on hail impact severity and damage to photovoltaic panels, recently published in Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments. The research team included scientists from Shahrood University of Technology, Radsun Energy Pars and Asoo Vision Pardaz.
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