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For more than two decades, China has been the principal engine of global renewable-energy expansion. But the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest Renewables 2026 outlook suggests that the next phase of growth could look considerably different.
The agency forecasts nearly 4,800 GW of additional renewable power capacity between 2026 and 2031, almost 60% more than was added during the previous six-year period. Yet, for the first time, emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to add as much renewable capacity as advanced economies over the forecast period.
This is a significant geographical shift, particularly as countries increasingly view renewable energy not just as a climate solution, but as a means of improving energy security and reducing exposure to imported fossil fuels.
1. 11% – The first annual decline in global renewable additions in 21 years
Global renewable capacity additions are forecast to fall 11% in 2026, although they will remain the second-highest on record. The decline is primarily attributable to a sharp slowdown in Chinese solar installations. Solar additions in China during January–September 2026 were almost 55% lower than in the corresponding period last year, following changes in the country’s support and pricing framework.
However, the IEA expects additions to recover gradually, with emerging markets increasingly compensating for China’s slower growth.
2. 4,800 GW – The next five years’ global expansion
The IEA expects nearly 4,800 GW of renewable capacity to be added between 2026 and 2031, with solar PV accounting for more than three-quarters of this expansion.
Interestingly, the growth will not be confined to large utility-scale projects. Distributed solar, including residential, commercial, industrial and off-grid installations, is expected to contribute approximately 1,530 GW, highlighting the increasing importance of consumers and businesses as investors in electricity generation.
3. 53% – China’s declining share of global additions
China will remain the world’s largest renewable-energy growth market, but its share of global capacity additions is expected to decline from over 60% in 2025 to an average of 53% during 2026–2031.
This is not an absolute retreat. China is expected to continue adding enormous amounts of capacity and could still exceed its own renewable deployment targets. But the rest of the world is beginning to catch up in terms of incremental additions.
4. 8.5% – India’s growing share of global renewable expansion
India is emerging as the world’s second-largest growth market. Its renewable capacity expansion during 2026–2031 is expected to be 2.6 times that of the previous six-year period, taking its contribution to global capacity additions to nearly 8.5%.
The IEA also expects India’s share of global solar module manufacturing to almost double to 17% over the next five years. This makes the country increasingly relevant not just as a deployment market, but as an alternative manufacturing base in a supply chain still dominated by China.
5. 3 times – The expected acceleration across emerging regions
Renewable capacity additions across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa are collectively forecast to almost triple over the next six years compared with the previous six-year period.
Sub-Saharan Africa has received the largest upward percentage revision to the IEA’s forecast, with distributed solar playing a particularly important role. In many markets, rooftop and off-grid systems are becoming a practical response to unreliable electricity supplies and expensive alternatives.
The changing geography of deployment could eventually encourage greater diversification of renewable manufacturing. India’s expected increase in solar module manufacturing share is one indication of this trend, while growing demand across Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East could create new opportunities for regional supply chains.
But there is a significant qualification. China’s manufacturing dominance is not disappearing simply because its share of new installations is declining. It remains deeply entrenched in the global solar supply chain, and new manufacturing centres will need to compete on cost, technology and scale.
There is also a more immediate challenge: infrastructure. The IEA reports that advanced-stage renewable energy and storage projects awaiting grid connections worldwide have increased 60% over the past year to approximately 3,000 GW. That is four times the wind and solar capacity connected to grids during the same period.
In other words, the world is getting better at building renewable generation, but not necessarily at connecting and using it.
The next chapter of the energy transition may therefore be defined by two parallel shifts: the geographical diversification of renewable deployment and manufacturing, and the need to invest much more heavily in grids and storage.
For India, this presents an opportunity that extends well beyond adding solar capacity. The country could emerge as one of the principal beneficiaries of a renewable-energy market that is becoming increasingly global rather than being concentrated in a handful of established markets.
We are India’s leading B2B media house, reporting full-time on solar energy, wind, battery storage, solar inverters, and electric vehicle (EV)
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