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India Braces For Impact Again
China’s Ministry of Commerce has proposed adding 12 photovoltaic manufacturing technologies to its export-control list, with public consultation closing on 15 November. The draft is part of a wider revision of the technology catalogue that also covers artificial intelligence and biotechnology. Beijing cites national security, arguing that solar technologies are increasingly used in sensitive areas such as aerospace and defence.
What would be banned, and what restricted
The outright ban would cover processes used to make thin silicon wafers, perovskite and tandem solar cells, and large-scale fluidised-bed polysilicon production. Reporting on the draft’s thresholds says the tandem ban applies to cells on wafers of at least 182 mm with efficiency of 30% or more, and to large-area modules of at least one square metre. Fluidised-bed polysilicon is cheaper and more energy-efficient than the dominant Siemens process.
TOPCon, HJT and XBC cell manufacturing technologies would be restricted rather than prohibited, meaning licensing rather than a flat ban. The draft does not stop finished panels, cells or wafers from being exported. Exporters must already register certain overseas technology transfers, a requirement that took effect on 16 October and applies until the catalogue is formally revised.
China already curbed exports of solar-manufacturing technology to India, besides battery cells.
India’s exposure
The draft extends controls to technology transfers worldwide. India’s installed solar capacity reached 171.05 GW at the end of September, including 20.79 GW added in the first half of FY27. Module manufacturing capacity has passed 200 GW. Upstream, the picture is thinner. Union Minister Pralhad Joshi put cell capacity at about 45 GW at the Bharat Renewable Energy Summit, while industry voices there said effective capacity is below 40 GW, with ingot and wafer capacity under 1% of the total and commercial-scale polysilicon production yet to begin.
That is exactly the layer the draft targets. The Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA) is now prioritising ingots, wafers and polysilicon, per coverage of the summit. Thin-wafer processes and fluidised-bed polysilicon are two of the banned items, so Indian plans in those segments would have to rely on non-Chinese technology.
The European route
India’s response is already visible. At the same summit, IB Solar signed an MoU with German technology partners to set up what is described as India’s first Centre of Excellence for solar technology in Uttar Pradesh, backed by the National Solar Energy Federation of India. Separately, the company signed an MoU with three German firms to develop a 2 GW TOPCon cell line at its Indian facility, as reported by us last week.
TOPCon underpins several of India’s recent cell plants. In September that Premier Energies commissioned a 7 GW TOPCon cell plant, taking its cell capacity to 10.6 GW, and that Alpex Solar inaugurated a 2.2 GW TOPCon facility in Mathura. Those plants are built. Others like Saatvik Green energy are testing production at a 4 GW cell plant in Odisha. Vikram Solar is also hoping to start a massive 10 GW facility by December. The open question is whether future expansions, upgrades and equipment support would face licensing delays if the restrictions are finalised as drafted. 
What to watch
The consultation closes on 15 November, after which China’s regulators will decide whether to keep the thresholds. Three points matter for Indian manufacturers: whether TOPCon stays on the restricted rather than banned list, how the registration regime is applied in practice, and whether Indian developers can substitute European or domestic equipment fast enough to protect expansion schedules.
For India, the case for building a technology base, rather than only assembly lines, has become a supply-security argument as much as an industrial one.
We are India’s leading B2B media house, reporting full-time on solar energy, wind, battery storage, solar inverters, and electric vehicle (EV)
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